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Poll
Question: How will you vote on June 8th 2017
Conservative - 29 (28.2%)
Labour - 36 (35%)
Lib Dem - 13 (12.6%)
UKIP - 1 (1%)
Green - 1 (1%)
Nationalist party eg SNP, Plaid - 8 (7.8%)
Don't intend to vote - 4 (3.9%)
I really don't know yet - 11 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 103

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 665215 times)
aaron1867
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« Reply #16110 on: January 11, 2019, 12:29:24 PM »

You can extend A50 or revoke it. I am not sure of the position if we keep on voting against deals and it suddenly ends up on 29 March. I think the MP's are clearly in favour of avoiding a no-deal scenario, so I expect them to somehow block it. I think it was clear by what Jeremy Hunt said, that it seems no-deal isn't an option.
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« Reply #16111 on: January 11, 2019, 12:32:16 PM »

But, amuse me for a second, forget what you voted for or what you want to happen now. Let's say a second vote happens, which will ultimately choose the way to go, what should be on that ballot paper?

Remain / No Deal

Deal / No Deal / Remain

No Deal / Remain

No Deal / Deal

Remain / Deal

That must be a tough ask.
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #16112 on: January 11, 2019, 12:56:08 PM »

You can extend A50 or revoke it. I am not sure of the position if we keep on voting against deals and it suddenly ends up on 29 March. I think the MP's are clearly in favour of avoiding a no-deal scenario, so I expect them to somehow block it. I think it was clear by what Jeremy Hunt said, that it seems no-deal isn't an option.

Sounds like it is more unlikely now, however there is still talk of May declaring a GE on April 4th meaning parliament is dissolved and cannot stop a no deal exit.
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« Reply #16113 on: January 11, 2019, 12:58:02 PM »

But, amuse me for a second, forget what you voted for or what you want to happen now. Let's say a second vote happens, which will ultimately choose the way to go, what should be on that ballot paper?

Remain / No Deal

Deal / No Deal / Remain

No Deal / Remain

No Deal / Deal

Remain / Deal

That must be a tough ask.

Deal / New Deal / No Deal / Remain

Surely just so everyone can vote for a fantasy new deal that isn't delivered and we have a third referendum?
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MANTIS01
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« Reply #16114 on: January 11, 2019, 01:02:51 PM »

Remember the quotes from Jaguar itt about how devastating Brexit would be

They announced all those job losses yesterday

In reality this was due to issues with China and diesel slow down

See what they did there. It’s like when bad news can be buried because of a bigger news story

As we’ve always been told itt....we haven’t left yet

In reality it is the combination of these 3 things and others, as was stated in many places yesterday.

Jaguar's press release on its sales performance doesn't even mention Brexit:

https://media.jaguarlandrover.com/news/2019/01/jaguar-land-rover-reports-december-2018-and-year-end-sales

We have seen a strong end to the year in North America, Europe and the UK. Sales were up despite challenging market conditions, including regulatory changes and diesel uncertainty, which have impacted sales performance throughout the year. The UK’s performance in particular has been encouraging in a market segment which is down. The economic slowdown in China along with ongoing trade tensions is continuing to influence consumer confidence.

and here, the chief exec doesn't mention Brexit by name in his discussion of the problems

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46822706

"We are taking decisive action to help deliver long-term growth, in the face of multiple geopolitical and regulatory disruptions as well as technology challenges facing the automotive industry," said JLR's chief executive, Ralf Speth.


but people spin it to support their argument, as Simon Jack does as he begins his comments at the bottom of the BBC story

Jaguar Land Rover has been saying for more than a year that Brexit uncertainty would eventually take its toll on the perception of the UK as a stable and competitive base for global manufacturing.

In July last year, the company said it needed more certainty around Brexit in order to continue investing in its UK operations and warned that a "no-deal" Brexit would cost the company more than £1.2bn in profit each year.


A less biassed view than that produced by you and Simon is included here:

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/103212/jaguar-land-rover-confirms-4500-job-cuts

The company blames a combination of the collapse in the Chinese car market (down 15.4% in October), US trade tariffs, Brexit uncertainty, the drop in diesel sales (which account for around 90% of the company’s sales), confusion over CO2 and the challenges in meeting the latest WLTP fuel and emission test standards.


Virtually everyone spins a biased view...not just me and Simon

Just logged onto Bloomberg business news to be greeted by the bolded headline..

JAGUAR TO SLASH 4,500 JOBS IN BREXIT SLUMP

Jaguar did spin a biased view during Brexit aftermath...Ralph Speth said no change to trade agreement would protect 40,000 jobs...which he has now ‘slashed’ by 11% before any change has been agreed or confirmed

I don’t want to spin a biased view but needs must when battling so many biased views
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Sheriff Fatman
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« Reply #16115 on: January 11, 2019, 01:48:54 PM »

You can extend A50 or revoke it. I am not sure of the position if we keep on voting against deals and it suddenly ends up on 29 March. I think the MP's are clearly in favour of avoiding a no-deal scenario, so I expect them to somehow block it. I think it was clear by what Jeremy Hunt said, that it seems no-deal isn't an option.

Revoking A50 can be done unilaterally by the UK, as determined by the recent EU court case.

Extending A50 requires the agreement of the EU27 to do so.  The consensus seems to be that this would be feasible in advance of either a general election or 2nd referendum, but wouldn't be granted just to allow more time for the current Parliament to try and reach some sort of majority verdict on what it would like.
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« Reply #16116 on: January 11, 2019, 02:05:41 PM »

But, amuse me for a second, forget what you voted for or what you want to happen now. Let's say a second vote happens, which will ultimately choose the way to go, what should be on that ballot paper?

Remain / No Deal

Deal / No Deal / Remain

No Deal / Remain

No Deal / Deal

Remain / Deal

That must be a tough ask.

The best option for me would be a two part referendum done at a single poll.

Part 1: A simple in/out decision, equivalent to the previous one.

Part 2: Some form of question regarding the method of exit, assuming that the 1st one generates a majority to leave.  It could be based on a specific deal/no-deal scenario but might be better framed around single market + Customs union + no Irish border issue vs no customs union + no single market + Northern Ireland special status, which are the two distinct options.  The first vote's failure to tackle this issue is the fundamental problem we've been dealing with for 2.5 years, particularly as there was a widely held consensus that we could cherry pick our way into an impossible combination of these.

At least this way, anyone voting to Remain would still have a say on methodology of exit if the first vote was lost.  Doing it as two separate votes would be impractical and far less decisive as I doubt many remain voters would bother to vote in the follow up referendum.
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nirvana
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« Reply #16117 on: January 11, 2019, 02:19:53 PM »

But, amuse me for a second, forget what you voted for or what you want to happen now. Let's say a second vote happens, which will ultimately choose the way to go, what should be on that ballot paper?

Remain / No Deal

Deal / No Deal / Remain

No Deal / Remain

No Deal / Deal

Remain / Deal

That must be a tough ask.

The best option for me would be a two part referendum done at a single poll.

Part 1: A simple in/out decision, equivalent to the previous one.

Part 2: Some form of question regarding the method of exit, assuming that the 1st one generates a majority to leave.  It could be based on a specific deal/no-deal scenario but might be better framed around single market + Customs union + no Irish border issue vs no customs union + no single market + Northern Ireland special status, which are the two distinct options.  The first vote's failure to tackle this issue is the fundamental problem we've been dealing with for 2.5 years, particularly as there was a widely held consensus that we could cherry pick our way into an impossible combination of these.

At least this way, anyone voting to Remain would still have a say on methodology of exit if the first vote was lost.  Doing it as two separate votes would be impractical and far less decisive as I doubt many remain voters would bother to vote in the follow up referendum.

I understand where you're coming from but part 2 is way too complicated for the large majority of disinterested people. I think the most that can be expected from a referendum is for people to express a direction based on their feelings/preference/instinct - not based on a deep understanding or fundamental interest in the subject.

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« Reply #16118 on: January 11, 2019, 02:20:26 PM »

You can extend A50 or revoke it. I am not sure of the position if we keep on voting against deals and it suddenly ends up on 29 March. I think the MP's are clearly in favour of avoiding a no-deal scenario, so I expect them to somehow block it. I think it was clear by what Jeremy Hunt said, that it seems no-deal isn't an option.

Revoking A50 can be done unilaterally by the UK, as determined by the recent EU court case.

Extending A50 requires the agreement of the EU27 to do so.  The consensus seems to be that this would be feasible in advance of either a general election or 2nd referendum, but wouldn't be granted just to allow more time for the current Parliament to try and reach some sort of majority verdict on what it would like.

Yes the path to rejecting a "no deal" brexit is unclear atm, but where there's a will, there is  ..............someone with a compass, map, torch and penknife.
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« Reply #16119 on: January 11, 2019, 02:26:25 PM »

Article 50 being extended for anything other than a second referendum seems like the worst of all worlds to me. At a push, for a GE if Labour declared they would stand on a remain manifesto.


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nirvana
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« Reply #16120 on: January 11, 2019, 02:34:04 PM »

But, amuse me for a second, forget what you voted for or what you want to happen now. Let's say a second vote happens, which will ultimately choose the way to go, what should be on that ballot paper?

Remain / No Deal

Deal / No Deal / Remain

No Deal / Remain

No Deal / Deal

Remain / Deal

That must be a tough ask.

If a second vote happened then:

Leave / Remain seems the fairest question

Possibly

The Deal/ No deal if you believe the only rationale for a second ref is to settle the parliamentary impasse



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« Reply #16121 on: January 11, 2019, 04:15:06 PM »

I understand where you're coming from but part 2 is way too complicated for the large majority of disinterested people. I think the most that can be expected from a referendum is for people to express a direction based on their feelings/preference/instinct - not based on a deep understanding or fundamental interest in the subject.

It was more of a framework for a follow-up question, but I agree that it would need to be addressed in a relatively simple way on a ballot paper.  The key point is that the choice needs to be something binary based on achievable outcomes, and the single market option is the most obvious one to me by which you get two clearly defined, but very different outcomes, based along the package that ultimately comes with it.

This is why 'no deal' is problematic as a potential option, as its misunderstood by many people (possibly less so now that it's getting increasing publicity) who seem to think it means that nothing changes.
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« Reply #16122 on: January 12, 2019, 10:24:49 AM »


Blimey even Owen Jones is now on the Norway+ bandwagon.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/10/norway-plus-labour-brexit
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« Reply #16123 on: January 12, 2019, 11:13:08 AM »

I understand where you're coming from but part 2 is way too complicated for the large majority of disinterested people. I think the most that can be expected from a referendum is for people to express a direction based on their feelings/preference/instinct - not based on a deep understanding or fundamental interest in the subject.

It was more of a framework for a follow-up question, but I agree that it would need to be addressed in a relatively simple way on a ballot paper.  The key point is that the choice needs to be something binary based on achievable outcomes, and the single market option is the most obvious one to me by which you get two clearly defined, but very different outcomes, based along the package that ultimately comes with it.

This is why 'no deal' is problematic as a potential option, as its misunderstood by many people (possibly less so now that it's getting increasing publicity) who seem to think it means that nothing changes.

On that second sentence, I've heard that metnioned quite a lot, incredible that people might think that after all this time but not surprising either
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« Reply #16124 on: January 12, 2019, 03:50:11 PM »

Tim Nice-But-Dim came here to Portsmouth yesterday.

 Click to see full-size image.


It didn't go well. I don't approve of shouting speakers down, but this guy gives me the creeps.

https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/wetherspoon-founder-tim-martin-s-brexit-talk-in-portsmouth-shut-down-early-because-of-crowd-disruption-1-8766723?fbclid=IwAR3C_2_JgpXgn2hz2eNINMzuDFLHmDX2kppol8WnD3kC7oj2i5nWITuFoF0
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