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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 1328595 times)
Sheriff Fatman
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« Reply #17970 on: June 07, 2019, 11:42:48 AM »

The headline from the Peterborough by-election is that the electorate slightly preferred an anti-Semitic left candidate to the Brexit party.  Neither of the two are particularly appealing options.

The results show some interesting splits which highlight just how much of a lottery a general election would be in trying to determine an outcome for Brexit (hence my view that only a 2nd referendum would achieve this).

There's the obvious Tory/Brexit Party split - a few more Tories going Brexit would have picked up the seat.

There's a less obvious minor party factor, which on this occasion was significant.  The fringe Brexit parties (UKIP - 400, English Democrats - 153 and the SDP -135), picked up 688 votes between them.  Labour won by 683 votes.

The Tory vote held up better than expected and the Lib Dem / Green vote wasn't significant, which is a contrast to the EU election trends.  Not sure quite where the Remain vote landed but presumably a significant part of it still voted Labour, or didn't turn out to vote.  At a national level that would suggest the Tory votes lost to the Brexit party would be more significant than the votes lost by Labour to remain parties, so would give Labour a better chance of a back door general election victory.

The dynamics would differ depending on which parties historically have a chance in individual seats, and this one has very much been a two-party seat through its history, but it's evidence that, no matter how badly run they are, Labour would be the beneficiaries of a GE when Brexit remains an unresolved matter.  That's a scary prospect.

Do you think it might also be fair to say that people want to hear about more than just Brexit?

Labour went in without an opinion on Brexit versus a party whose only opinion is on Brexit.

Interesting that 61% of people voted Leave in Peterborough in 2016 & the Brexit party couldn't get over the line. I don't know anything about the history but it amazes me that the Conservatives & Labour got so many votes given what has gone on over the last 2 years.

It's exactly the reason why a GE is such an inappropriate way for Brexit to be resolved, contrary to what Labour are pushing for.  There are too many dynamics within a General Election to determine anything with clarity, particularly at a time where hung Parliaments are increasingly likely.  For example, the Corbynistas believe that Labour's GE2017 performance was a vindication of their left-wing agenda, but it's become increasingly clear over time that it was influenced heavily by remain voters trying to stop May achieving the huge majority she originally expected.  Now that Labour are looking in both directions on Brexit their support has evaporated from remain supporters, ironically at the same time as the Tory vote has evaporated from Leave voters.

Like it or not, Brexit is the overwhelmingly dominant political issue right now and until it gets resolved in one direction or another, Westminster elections are going to be influenced by it in a way which is difficult to predict.
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« Reply #17971 on: June 07, 2019, 12:27:39 PM »

https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1136955012284866562

nice bloke
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« Reply #17972 on: June 07, 2019, 01:45:23 PM »


I hope he gets charged for that, such a cheap shot, the guy is the lowest of the low whatever veneer of respectability anyone tries to put on him
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sola virtus nobilitat
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« Reply #17973 on: June 07, 2019, 01:57:57 PM »

Tommy Robinson - ‘Free speech - you should be able to say whatever you like’

Also Tommy Robinson - punches someone in the back of the head for saying something Tommy doesn’t like.
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« Reply #17974 on: June 07, 2019, 02:10:42 PM »


Would be nice to see the clown charged with assault.

Where's the Valwinkle geezer to tell us he's innocent and a very nice bloke?
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« Reply #17975 on: June 07, 2019, 02:48:18 PM »

 Click to see full-size image.
Farage-2" border="0

Nigel Farage delivered a letter to Theresa May requesting a place in the negotiating team for Brexit.

Failed to win in Peterborough...

Failed to be elected as an MP after 7 attempts...

Delivering a letter to someone who is about to resign and will play no part...

in negotiations which are not actually happening away...
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Mark_Porter
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« Reply #17976 on: June 07, 2019, 02:49:20 PM »

Here is the letter:-

 Click to see full-size image.
Letter" border="0
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aaron1867
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« Reply #17977 on: June 07, 2019, 02:51:11 PM »

Just out of curiosity, has there ever been any data or polls to show what Brexit voters prefer in regards to deal or no deal?
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« Reply #17978 on: June 07, 2019, 03:01:14 PM »

Just out of curiosity, has there ever been any data or polls to show what Brexit voters prefer in regards to deal or no deal?

Don't know but most, in my opinion, would have expected a deal in line with the rhetoric at the time.

What I didn't expect was that 'the deal', in the time we've had, would be solely about the terms of leaving rather than a replacement trading arrangement. Easiest trade deal in history etc.

Regrettably, we have been out-manoeuvered by European negotiators, whether this was deliberate complicity on our part or incompetence, who knows. I prefer that it was us being complicit as no real evidence that the UK was incompetent on this scale in international trade in the past - on our own or as part of the EU.
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sola virtus nobilitat
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« Reply #17979 on: June 07, 2019, 03:49:42 PM »

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Rory-Winning" border="0

Rory's team just posted this on Twitter.

"More on the latest @YouGov poll, showing @RoryStewartUK leading the race for Conservative party leader, with awareness taken into account"

It's very glass half full. The actual report is here - https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/kfmg0dljim/Internal_190604_ConLeader_w.pdf

It shows that of the 101 people asked (tiny sample no??), 12 people said he would be a good prime minister, 17 thought he would be a bad prime minister, 12 weren't sure and 60 didn't have a clue who he was.

So of the people who knew who he was, 30% thought he would be good. 12 people out of 41 thought he would be good. (The Boris number is 26 people thought he would be good of 89 that knew who he was).

Apparently that translates to When you hear the story, the country turns to Rory.

This made me laugh.

Do you think each of the following does or does not have a likeable personality?

Boris - 38% like him
Javid - 23% like him
Hunt - 16% like him
Raab - 13% like him
Gove - 11% like him

Not exactly a group of death is it.
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« Reply #17980 on: June 07, 2019, 05:43:23 PM »

The public vote is the final two, so who does Rory play in the final?

If not Boris, who do the Boris voters go for? Political voters move to Raab, presumably.
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« Reply #17981 on: June 07, 2019, 06:17:43 PM »

The public vote is the final two, so who does Rory play in the final?

If not Boris, who do the Boris voters go for? Political voters move to Raab, presumably.

The problem is the same as Labour's.   It isn't a vote of Conservative voters, it is a vote of Conservative members.  I assume members are going to be more likely to prefer no deal to the voters.   
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« Reply #17982 on: June 07, 2019, 06:48:15 PM »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48554853

What a shambolic waste of hundreds of thousands of pounds.

Case was never realistically going to succeed.

At least the lawyers made plenty out of it.
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« Reply #17983 on: June 07, 2019, 07:22:52 PM »

The public vote is the final two, so who does Rory play in the final?

If not Boris, who do the Boris voters go for? Political voters move to Raab, presumably.


To coin an old Tory phrase,

"there is something of the night about Rory"
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« Reply #17984 on: June 07, 2019, 07:39:48 PM »

The public vote is the final two, so who does Rory play in the final?

If not Boris, who do the Boris voters go for? Political voters move to Raab, presumably.


To coin an old Tory phrase,

"there is something of the night about Rory"

We know Rory isn’t actually a contender?

Lols the something of the night comment, a probably clinically insane woman brayed it once.
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