18 Man SNG Bubble Spot

[hiamchris]

Fold or Jam?

USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2015/05/26 0:20:22 WET [2015/05/25 19:20:22 ET]
Table '1238625132 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 2: Robertoroyal (3694 in chips)
Seat 3: jopeto76 (6434 in chips)
Seat 5: dino750 (9998 in chips)
Seat 6: maros288 (3882 in chips)
Seat 8: Gr0sPoisson1 (2992 in chips)
Robertoroyal: posts the ante 25
jopeto76: posts the ante 25
dino750: posts the ante 25
maros288: posts the ante 25
Gr0sPoisson1: posts the ante 25
Robertoroyal: posts small blind 200
jopeto76: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Gr0sPoisson1 [ ]
dino750: raises 800 to 1200
maros288: calls 1200
Hero: ??

[OverTheBorder]

Just call like Maros for an absolute rofl

I am sure you are crushing openers range who will be punishing the bubble. Hate the call for 1/3rd of stack though from Maros. Looking at OPR he isn't a total Virgin so it looks a bit trappy. I probably jam though as I am a punter. It's a lot easier if you have Maros covered obviously with side pot and having the advantage in double elimination.

[UgotNuts]

Jam and don't even think about it.

The Min cash is like 1.3 of the buy in or something silly like that. We want to build a stack to make the top 3.

[MC]

I've played a lot of 18 mans and this is a really easy fold.

You have no fold equity and Maros might bubble this hand. The payout structure of 18-mans is such that 'building a stack' is of reduced benefit because each pay jump is identical.

[UgotNuts]

I've played a lot of 18 mans and this is a really easy fold.

You have no fold equity and Maros might bubble this hand. The payout structure of 18-mans is such that 'building a stack' is of reduced benefit because each pay jump is identical.

I'm not jamming hoping I get folds here. I'm jamming hoping for a call. People call with all sorts of junk in these.

Money worth while is top 3 in these IMO, So "building a stack" to allow me to get to this stage is always the objective.

Alternative is lets fold and hope I get into the money and have to push with K10 off in an orbit or so.

[MC]

I realised you weren't jamming to get folds given the fact we have zero fold equity.

Jamming KTos the next hand would be a much better spot than jamming here and getting it in against anything we don't dominate.

[MC]

I had a little play with this hand. There's so many variables in this hand it's hard to know what assumptions to make. There are ranges that you can give them where AQ is more of a get in than I would expect (albeit it was bottom of range) but there's a lot of ranges where getting AQ in is bad. Here's one such sim:

This had UTG opening 26% and getting in the top 13%, and had button peeling AA and some pretty hands, and never folding.

[hiamchris]

Hi, thanks for that. For what it's worth I wasn't expecting either to fold anything after utg 3x it.

I ended up folding, utg showed up with AT and the flat caller showed up with qq.