Devastating news , what would you do ?....Tunisia

[Doobs]

3000 killed in a terrorist attack in the USA, 200 mass shootings there in 10 years. There was a shooting in Vegas when I was there and I was only there a week.  I still travelled on the tube into London after 7/7.  There was a thread here very recently about travelling to Egypt and that country has had a more unstable recent past and a significantly greater number of terrorist incidents.  Sure most people were saying go in that thread, but guess the incidents weren't so fresh in people's minds at the time.  

We are far more likely to die in road accidents than terrorist incidents.  It is pretty hard to be killed in a plane crash, but am guessing that is higher risk too.  

People need to think rationally and not think the way they want us to.  

Good luck Lee, hope this doesn't spoil your trip.  

FWIW if there is a terrorist attack in Tunisia there is a very low chance it will be where you are and a very low chance you will be caught up in it even if it is in your town and a very low chance you will die even if it is in your hotel.  Surprising people fail so badly on a real life probability calculation.  

[George2Loose]

I think I stated in my post that the chances are slimmer but sometimes as a human being I take gut feel and Rec thinking so to speak irl situations.

Spose if someone gets shot and killed u can console yourself that you made the right mathematical decision

[Woodsey]

Quite frankly maths can take a running jump in this situation...

[The Camel]

3000 killed in a terrorist attack in the USA, 200 mass shootings there in 10 years. There was a shooting in Vegas when I was there and I was only there a week.  I still travelled on the tube into London after 7/7.  There was a thread here very recently about travelling to Egypt and that country has had a more unstable recent past and a significantly greater number of terrorist incidents.  Sure most people were saying go in that thread, but guess the incidents weren't so fresh in people's minds at the time.  

We are far more likely to die in road accidents than terrorist incidents.  It is pretty hard to be killed in a plane crash, but am guessing that is higher risk too.  

People need to think rationally and not think the way they want us to.  

Good luck Lee, hope this doesn't spoil your trip.  

FWIW if there is a terrorist attack in Tunisia there is a very low chance it will be where you are and a very low chance you will be caught up in it even if it is in your town and a very low chance you will die even if it is in your hotel.  Surprising people fail so badly on a real life probability calculation.  

Good post.

My gut feeling is you are several times more likely to be murdered on holiday in the USA than in Tunisia.

[nirvana]

I don't think these things are about probability and/or relative safety compared with other places to travel.

It's kinda binary and it's safer to not travel  to Tunisia than to travel there.

I wouldn't want to be the Selwyn Gummer of the travel world and take my kids there

[Claw75]

I'd deffo still go - chances are I'd be in more danger staying put and travelling into central london on the tube everyday.  But if, as someone said earlier on the thread, there is a chance you can get a full refund of what you've paid than makes sense to do that then rebook an inevitably cheaper last minute deal.

[EvilPie]

From a safety point of view I wouldn't be any more bothered now than I was when I first booked it.

From an enjoyment point of view I can't help but think that the whole place is going to be in a bit of a sombre state for the next few weeks and it's going to be difficult getting in to 'holiday mode' knowing what happened just a few weeks earlier.

That being said if your kids still want to go and it isn't affecting them in any way then you're likely to have a great holiday. The locals will be really pleased to see any tourists in the next few weeks and I would think you'll have no problems getting a sunbed.

PS: Before any sensitive soul leaps on my back I don't mean this as some kind of sick joke. It really is going to be quiet there.

[The Camel]

From a safety point of view I wouldn't be any more bothered now than I was when I first booked it.

From an enjoyment point of view I can't help but think that the whole place is going to be in a bit of a sombre state for the next few weeks and it's going to be difficult getting in to 'holiday mode' knowing what happened just a few weeks earlier.

That being said if your kids still want to go and it isn't affecting them in any way then you're likely to have a great holiday. The locals will be really pleased to see any tourists in the next few weeks and I would think you'll have no problems getting a sunbed.

PS: Before any sensitive soul leaps on my back I don't mean this as some kind of sick joke. It really is going to be quiet there.

This is a really good point.

I was in Vegas in the days after 9/11, and it was like a ghost town.

And the few people who were there seemed to be embarrassed about having a good time.

[h]

I would go unless FCO advice changes

however would be less likely to get out and about from Hotel

[h]

From a safety point of view I wouldn't be any more bothered now than I was when I first booked it.

From an enjoyment point of view I can't help but think that the whole place is going to be in a bit of a sombre state for the next few weeks and it's going to be difficult getting in to 'holiday mode' knowing what happened just a few weeks earlier.

That being said if your kids still want to go and it isn't affecting them in any way then you're likely to have a great holiday. The locals will be really pleased to see any tourists in the next few weeks and I would think you'll have no problems getting a sunbed.

PS: Before any sensitive soul leaps on my back I don't mean this as some kind of sick joke. It really is going to be quiet there.

This is a really good point.

I was in Vegas in the days after 9/11, and it was like a ghost town.

And the few people who were there seemed to be embarrassed about having a good time.

went to Egypt Xmas 1997 i think it was might have 98
 50+ tourists were killed in November when buses attacked
plane out and back and hotel where  less than half full
went  to Casino one night but we where only customers
Ending up spending night drinking with and chatting to staff at bar as could be bothered to punt when we only two  in the place

[Waz1892]

I wouldn't go now as a direct result of what's happened.  Maybe not because the risk is now higher than 2 weeks ago, it isn't, and as others have said, probably the "best" time to go. Cheaper, and security will be ramped up.

The decision however is made well before this in terms of risk assessment imo.  I wouldn't have even considered a place like this due to the possible risk of such an awful event happening is this kind of country.

I get Daniels "Ellie Gouldings" assessment of stuff, but we all (mostly) just get on with our daily lives as required, Cars, Trains, Cycling etc, but it the norm and a requirement of most modern lives.  You just don't consider what "might happen" on a daily basis.

However Tunisia and such countries it is clear that to go, is a somewhat riskier than a.n.other not in that region due to the way the world is at present.  If you've past that assessment and deemed it safe, then you go.  You don't not go because something has just happened.

[bobAlike]

No brainier for me. I would rather not subject my family to any additional risks to the many that lie before them in day to day life. Why add more unnecessarily.

[mulhuzz]

No brainier for me. I would rather not subject my family to any additional risks to the many that lie before them in day to day life. Why add more unnecessarily.

Drive them to School? You could walk.

People are so predictably irrational.

Edit: that sounds harsher than intended.

I assume you'd take them on holiday? Confirmation, recency and primacy biases ahoy

[TightEnd]

No brainier for me. I would rather not subject my family to any additional risks to the many that lie before them in day to day life. Why add more unnecessarily.

Drive them to School? You could walk.

People are so predictably irrational.

people are where families are concerned

I have a PhD in a statistical subject. I know the probabilities and theory

you would not get me taking my family anywhere such as tunisia (higher risk of terrorist activity than some other destinations) on holiday

i wouldn't have booked tunisia, morocco, turkey, israel etc in the first place

if i get blown up in Majorca, so be it!

peace of mind for myself and others and regard for the family over-rides the rationality

[mulhuzz]

People are shit at calculating risk so that's not an argument imo.

There's absolutely no way even someone like you tighty can snap tell me what the relative risks are of Tunis vs Barcelona (it's well known 'experts' have the same biases as 'normals')

So basically, people saying they know Tunisia is any riskier than anywhere else is incredibly likely to be clicking buttons.