Anyone want to work this one out?

[TightEnd]

in your head, no hand calculators!

seen this weekend

(don't know when the money went in, lets assume the turn)

so on the flop J-9 is what percentage?

on the turn J-9 is?

Click to see full-size image.

[Longines]

Will give it a go - needing perfect perfect is pretty close to 1000/1 so will use that.

Winning run outs are:





Roughly 250/1 on the flop? And 44/1 to hit the on the river?

[verndog158]

Will give it a go - needing perfect perfect is pretty close to 1000/1 so will use that.

Winning run outs are:





Roughly 250/1 on the flop? And 44/1 to hit the on the river?

surely that happens less than 1 every 250 hands? i have no idea, interested to see what the answers will be

[arbboy]

Will give it a go - needing perfect perfect is pretty close to 1000/1 so will use that.

Winning run outs are:





Roughly 250/1 on the flop? And 44/1 to hit the on the river?

Spot on.  20 times more likely to get beat with flopped quads than Leicester winning the League last year!

[doubleup]

So the flop was JJJ?  I'd guess that the money went in on the river after a slow play as it seems a big pot (25s and a 5k in there).

combos are 7c9c and Qc9c which is 2 from 990 or 494-1  

[SuuPRlim]

Would actually be fascinated to know the action in this hand

[verndog158]

Would actually be fascinated to know the action in this hand

id love it to be 108cc checked jammed flop, quads slow roll called and then 108 gets there!!

[Simon Galloway]

I used to like doing these.... mind you, I used to like playing poker too.

Working it out from the perspective of the guy drawing...

On the flop, 45 cards are unknown, of which 3 cards keep your dream alive.  So you need to ping one of the 3 cards out of 45 and then the case card on the river out of 44.

so 1/15 * 1/44 = 1/660, or in odds-speak, 659/1.  With no calculator, I'm not turning that into a percentage.

I also need to add something in, if the 9 hits the turn, then there are 2 possible outs now on the river. ** will come back to that a bit later!

On the river, there is simply 1 card to hit out of a possible 44, so 43/1 shot.

________________________________________________________________

Ok, re-thinking the logic, I think the easiest way is to take the 4 possible runouts ... but surely there are 1980 possible combos??  Which would make 1/495, or 494/1.

Definitely past it, in every sense of the word

[TightEnd]

Would actually be fascinated to know the action in this hand

don't know about pre-flop

checked down to river

quads leads, straight flush raises, quads shoves, call.

[doubleup]

Would actually be fascinated to know the action in this hand

don't know about pre-flop

checked down to river

quads leads, straight flush raises, quads shoves, call.

So the flop was JJJ?  I'd guess that the money went in on the river after a slow play as it seems a big pot (25s and a 5k in there).

combos are 7c9c and Qc9c which is 2 from 990 or 494-1 

What's my prize?

[Rupert]

I used to like doing these.... mind you, I used to like playing poker too.

Working it out from the perspective of the guy drawing...

On the flop, 45 cards are unknown, of which 3 cards keep your dream alive.  So you need to ping one of the 3 cards out of 45 and then the case card on the river out of 44.

so 1/15 * 1/44 = 1/660, or in odds-speak, 659/1.  With no calculator, I'm not turning that into a percentage.

I also need to add something in, if the 9 hits the turn, then there are 2 possible outs now on the river. ** will come back to that a bit later!

On the river, there is simply 1 card to hit out of a possible 44, so 43/1 shot.

________________________________________________________________

Ok, re-thinking the logic, I think the easiest way is to take the 4 possible runouts ... but surely there are 1980 possible combos??  Which would make 1/495, or 494/1.

Definitely past it, in every sense of the word

0.0015%? roughly 3/2 right?

[Rupert]

oh yeah, that is wrong because you can be open ended on the river. So it's 1/45 * 1/44 * 4 = 1/45 * 1/11 = 1/496? 1000/496 ~ 2, so just under 0.2%?

also saw that I didn't convert probability into % in last post

[JK]

Would actually be fascinated to know the action in this hand

Flop checks 3 ways
Turn Quads bets, SFD calls
River Quads bets, SF raises small, quads jams

(I think this is correct, was relayed to me by a dealer at the time)

[SuuPRlim]

Gotta be a terrible jam from JJJJ there unless the raiser is the PF aggressor and somehow had QQ.

[Doobs]

Gotta be a terrible jam from JJJJ there unless the raiser is the PF aggressor and somehow had QQ.

Zeebo's theorem still works in live games?