The Next President of the United States

[MintTrav]

I need to choose my words more carefully. I'm not tipping Amy to win, but I think she has an outside chance if the pieces all happen to fall her way. Even then, her path is narrow. She is currently 4% to 6% in national polls, which ain't gonna do it. Like Buttigieg, she has no Black support, which makes it horrendously difficult and, as a former prosecutor, that's not likely to change. Like always, there are cases that she is accused of not handing properly, especially involving young Blacks.

Her strength is that the people who have supported her are the type who elected Trump, a massive advantage if she gets as far as the general election, and maybe before that to a lesser extent. The Presidency will be decided in a few battleground States and Klobuchar, which has a tremendous election record in rural parts of Minnesota, is the Democrat candidate who would be most attractive to Mid-West farmers and blue-collar workers in next-door Wisconsin and Michigan, two of the most critical States nowadays, and along through Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia. There are a few other crucial States but these ones were the key to Hillary's loss. Unfortunately, the candidate best placed to bring those in is in bad shape elsewhere.

She admitted she could have been dropping out if New Hampshire went badly. But it didn't - she outperformed expectations, raised a huge amount of donations and is surging, as they say. Unfortunately she is facing stony ground in Nevada and South Carolina and the Klobucharge may crash. I think a lot depends on how well Biden holds on to his votes. If he is in terminal decline, she stands to collect with them being in the same 'moderate' lane, although not in those Black-heavy States. If he stands strong and mounts a comeback, it is probably over for her. The Dems need a fallback in case Joe collapses, but Bloomberg is about to take over that role, so Amy probably won't be needed any more. She and Pete will be clogging up the moderate lane, allowing Bernie an easy run, so they may be told to step out.


Amy's exchange with Brett Kavanaugh about drinking made headlines last year

[MintTrav]

I think this photo shows the kind of stock Amy comes from. It's not from the current campaign, but I just like the picture.

Click to see full-size image.

Amy, Pete and Tom Steyer had separate interviews with Mexican TV channel Telemundo on Friday and were all asked to name the President of Mexico. Pete rattled it off (as you know, it's Andrés Manuel López Obrador), but Amy and Tom didn't know. I don't like gotcha questions but potential US Presidents not knowing the Mexican President is shameful.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/15/amy-klobuchar-tom-steyer-cant-name-mexican-president-115413

[MintTrav]

The Nevada Caucuses take place on Saturday, six days from now, but early voting has started and turnout is already very high, with some voters queuing for an hour. Nevada polls have been scarce, but the first one for over a month shows Sanders suddenly shooting into a seven-point lead.

25% Sanders
18% Biden
13% Warren
11% Steyer
10% Buttigieg
10% Klobuchar

Sanders was weak with Blacks and Hispanics last time, made worse by Clinton's traditional strength with these voters. However, his team has targeted minority ethnic groups over the last four years, and he is much better placed this time, particularly with Hispanics, but also with lots of other groups.

Click to see full-size image.

Not everyone is a fan, though. His speech in Nevada today was interrupted by anti dairy industry protestors who threw fake blood and other things on the podium and forced Bernie to give up the stage.

Click to see full-size image.

[MintTrav]

Breaking news: Matt Drudge reports that Bloomberg is considering Hillary as VP. Seems a stretch, but Drudge has a phenomenal record at this kind of thing and Bloomberg's campaign and Clinton have refused to comment, ie haven't denied it.

https://disrn.com/news/bloomberg-considering-hillary-clinton-as-running-mate-drudge

[Marky147]

Is that a good or bad thing?

Surely given what has transpired since 2016, you wouldn't want her anywhere near a campaign?

LOL @ not knowing the president a neighbouring country.

[MintTrav]

Is that a good or bad thing?

Surely given what has transpired since 2016, you wouldn't want her anywhere near a campaign?

LOL @ not knowing the president a neighbouring country.

I don’t know. A lot of people would still support her, though parts of the party have moved to the left over the last couple of years. Is that what you mean?
In fairness, Mexico changed its President last year and the new guy’s name isn’t memorable, but it’s probably the most important foreign country for the US.

[bookiebasher]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/feb/18/donald-trump-democrats-nevada-bloomberg-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-amy-klobuchar-live-updates


Now we are getting into the meat of this Democratic nomination !

Will be fascinating to see Bloomberg fend off the left attack on him in the debate.

Can't wait to watch it , sad I know 

[Marky147]

Is that a good or bad thing?

Surely given what has transpired since 2016, you wouldn't want her anywhere near a campaign?

LOL @ not knowing the president a neighbouring country.

I don’t know. A lot of people would still support her, though parts of the party have moved to the left over the last couple of years. Is that what you mean?
In fairness, Mexico changed its President last year and the new guy’s name isn’t memorable, but it’s probably the most important foreign country for the US.

Just how noisy the donald has been about her 'corruption', and the only time we really saw her was when she had the book to promote. Then you've got Epstein, though I'm not sure how that reflects on her, other than Bill being chummy with him, so that might win her some sympathy.

Even if they'd changed it last week, you'd expect them to remember something like that. Still, Donald can't even remember half the american's names, but Teflon Don hardly even gets pulled for that stuff nowadays

[MintTrav]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/feb/18/donald-trump-democrats-nevada-bloomberg-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-amy-klobuchar-live-updates


Now we are getting into the meat of this Democratic nomination !

Will be fascinating to see Bloomberg fend off the left attack on him in the debate.

Can't wait to watch it , sad I know 

Exciting isn’t it? The whole race, and the next two weeks in particular, is so unpredictable at this point, like a sports event that could logically go in several possible directions. No doubt Bloomberg has benefitted from not being in the debates so far, but you can only go so far doing that. He’s not naturally that good at them and his speeches and interviews so far have been weak, so there’s a good chance he’ll take a beating on Wednesday, but that probably wouldn’t affect his polls as much as others, with his advances on so many other fronts. It’s known he has been preparing hard by role-playing defending against hard attacks, with tough debaters playing all the other key candidates, so he may perform better than expected.

[bookiebasher]

I am hoping Warren gets more air time than the last debate where she seemed
to get ignored quite a lot .

Knowing how she went after top bank officials and people like Betsy DeVos I
am looking forward to some blistering attacks .

Whether it does her any good in the polls is another matter but I just like to
see them squirm and sweat .

Bloomberg can practice all he wants but it’s like taking a penalty ,  when it 
really matters it’s a different ball game .

Bring it on !

[MintTrav]

Crikey! Half an hour in, and this is the hardest-hitting one so far. Bloomberg has been crushed. Completely out of his depth so far at this level. Surprisingly, given how she disappeared last time, Warren has been the star, followed by Biden. Scores out of 10:so far:

Warren 12
Biden 9
Sanders 6
Klobuchar 6
Buttigieg 1
Bloomberg -100

[bookiebasher]

Sanders standing his ground well.

Bloomberg looks out his depth , which is no surprise .

[bookiebasher]

I do like Bernie but his socialist tag is surely going to hurt him further down the line.

Those super delegates at the convention  are going to be key.

[bookiebasher]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/19/warren-bloomberg-memes-reactions-democratic-debate-responses

How I would love to see Warren v Trump on the debate stage.

Think Amy might have blown it , she let Pete get under her skin so god knows how she would stand
up to Trump's vitriol.

Not convinced with Pete either , he comes across with an holier than thou attitude , cannot warm to him at all.
Full of froth , no substance.

Biden lives in a time warp but will probably benefit from the Amy/Pete fall out with centrist voters.

Bloomberg had a disaster but it's one debate and his money will talk.

Bernie had a good night consolidating his position as front runner and Warren hopefully has got back
into this fight . Had the most air time whereas last debate she came in 5th on air time.

Still can't see Bernie getting majority of delegates before the convention.

If Warren can get 20-25% share and be in 2nd place going into the convention it will be interesting
to say the least.

Only Bernie and Warren can excite the American public enough to get off their backsides and vote in
numbers to defeat Trump. Over 40% didn't vote in 2016 and Trump will win again if the Democrats
go against the progressives and nominate a dull centrist approach.

I am feeling The Bern but still in love with Elizabeth.

[MintTrav]

Caucusing has been going for half an hour in Nevada and first counts are in:

Sparks High School, Sparks:
47.1% Sanders
14.7% Warren
11.8% Buttigieg
10.8% Steyer
7.8% Klobuchar

Sierra Vista High School, Vegas
48.9% Warren
25.5% Sanders
12.8% Buttigieg
8.5% Klobuchar
2.1% Biden
2.1% Yang

Biden and Yang have one person each.

You need 15% to be viable and get any delegates. Voters for the viable candidates are locked in, but the others can change their vote. For example, only Sanders is viable in the first list, so he will get all the delegates unless, say, the Klobuchar and Steyer voters come together and support one of them. More than half of voters voted in advance, though, most of them aren't there in person to persuade to your side.