The Next President of the United States

[MintTrav]

There’s another big week coming, with six States voting on Tuesday.
They include Washington and Idaho, and Biden hasn’t won any Western States so far. Those two, and North Dakota, are among the most Bernie-friendly, so there was a feeling he would probably pick those up, but two polls released over the weekend both gave Biden a tiny lead in Washington. The State to watch is Michigan, which will be one of the key battleground States in November. Bernie won it in 2016 and needs to hold it this time, A poll a week ago, taken when all the others were still in, gave Biden a 29%-23% lead and Sanders cancelled a planned event in Missouri (which he seems to have given up on) the other day to spend the time in Michigan. There is a new poll this morning, though, which is devastating, putting Joe miles ahead with 54% to 33%. If Sanders is thrashed in Michigan, it’s hard to know where he can look for recovery.

Its a big turnround from a few weeks ago.  Gonna be more fascinating results. What would you put this down to..simplistic question I know

Firstly, I don’t think Biden was ever on the ropes quite as much as was made out. He was always going to do poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, though he did worse than expected. He made a daft claim that he could win in Iowa, which caused a lot of the narrative when he trailed in. If he had just said it’s probably not going to be good, but wait til South Carolina, he might have had a less uncomfortable time. 
 
Joe has two big advantages before anything else happens:

- Black voters. Biden is their man. They have long memories and believe that Joe has had their back going way back. In the absence of a Black candidate (who would still have to share with him), he has a lock on that section of the electorate, similar to the Clintons. It did start to crumble a bit in South Carolina, where his 30 point lead was down to single figures until Jim Clyburn stepped in. Clyburn is the third-ranking member of the House, and a god to Blacks in South Carolina. His endorsement saw Biden immediately tick back up and take the State by 30 points a couple of days later, which had a domino effect as Blacks throughout the South came together and Biden won every Southern State on the Tuesday. Clyburn’s endorsement may turn out to be the single biggest influence on who will be President.

- Likeability. There’s no getting away from it - people like Joe Biden, maybe more than any other politician. Many love him. They see him as a normal guy who has worked hard and is genuinely doing his best, and not out to benefit himself. He stumbles over his words and says strange things sometimes, but they don’t care. These things ring alarms with political activists and media, but the public will give him a pass, similar to George W, on the same basis that they feel his heart is in the right place. They know his word-mangling is partly due to a lifetime stutter that he had to work hard to overcome in his early adult years. They also have huge sympathy for his tragic personal life, and admire how he handled it, so he gets a bank of sympathy votes too.

Those things all existed when he seemed to be losing but, when things turned around, he had that solid ground to build on, which is a higher base than others would have.

- Late Deciders. This is an unusual election, in that a lot of Democratic and Independent voters aren’t too concerned about policies. All they want is to get Trump and his gang out of the White House and they will back anyone who looks like they can beat him, whether they are left, right or centre, which is one of the reasons Sanders came close to the nomination this year. Many preferred Joe, but thought he was shot and just couldn’t win the nomination, let alone beat Trump, so they would have been prepared to go with someone who looked more likely to dislodge Donald. Once he started to show that he could be a winner, they came over in droves. Super Tuesday was defined by Late Deciders – there were a lot more than usual and they almost all came to Biden.

- Endorsements. It wasn’t just Clyburn. Once South Carolina came in so high, people realised that Biden could do it, but they needed to help. I think the word must have gone out from Dem Central that they needed to do this right then, because there did seem to be co-ordination in it. Pete, Amy and Beto all piled in, and brought people with them. The importance of endorsements in US politics seems very strange to us. Surely it doesn’t matter much whether you are endorsed by Beto and Pete? Fact is, it matters a lot. Their politics is much more personality-based and these people have very loyal followers. Some see it like they have been given a release, ie they weren’t necessarily going to vote for Joe, but if Beto says it’s ok, it must be. Many of Pete or Amy’s supporters might have been heading in Warren’s direction until their dear leader directed them to Biden. Also, endorsements lead to donations, as donors recognise that this is a viable candidate.
 
Winning Massachusetts was probably the most stunning achievement. Joe didn’t even try there - he had one office in the whole State, with two staff. Two! He last made a speech there in April 2019 and hardly ran any advertising. With a week to go, he was fifth in State polls and the talk was about whether Warren would be humiliated by finishing behind Bernie in her home State. That happened, but Biden overtook them both. How? What changed was the big win in South Carolina, showing that he could be a winner, the endorsements releasing voters to lend their vote to him, and a general perception that things were moving in his direction.

Clyburn Endorsement → Black Voters → South Carolina Result → Other Endorsements → Donors → Late Deciders → Super Tuesday → More Endorsements → More Donors → Michigan → Nomination

[Marky147]

You are definitely the MVP, MintTrav!

Battle to see who makes it through the debates, then 

[bookiebasher]

That press conference by Trump and his nodding dogs last night was like a Trump rally.

 Honestly the amount of sucking up to POTUS was incredible and then when he got asked
some proper stuff he told one woman reporter it was a "nasty" question and her mike gets
shut down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8Py8qaAV4M

He is really starting to irritate me.

[bookiebasher]

From twitter....

I kid you not, Vice President Pence just now: “Mr President, this day should be an inspiration for every American. Your leadership has been extraordinary. We owe this all to you.”


Extraordinarily bad , I give you that.

[Karabiner]

From twitter....

I kid you not, Vice President Pence just now: “Mr President, this day should be an inspiration for every American. Your leadership has been extraordinary. We owe this all to you.”

I give up.

It's a cult.

[RED-DOG]

That press conference by Trump and his nodding dogs last night was like a Trump rally.

 Honestly the amount of sucking up to POTUS was incredible and then when he got asked
some proper stuff he told one woman reporter it was a "nasty" question and her mike gets
shut down.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8Py8qaAV4M

He is really starting to irritate me.

Trump can't even deliver a speech that's written down for him, especially when it contains two very big words.

[nirvana]

There’s another big week coming, with six States voting on Tuesday.
They include Washington and Idaho, and Biden hasn’t won any Western States so far. Those two, and North Dakota, are among the most Bernie-friendly, so there was a feeling he would probably pick those up, but two polls released over the weekend both gave Biden a tiny lead in Washington. The State to watch is Michigan, which will be one of the key battleground States in November. Bernie won it in 2016 and needs to hold it this time, A poll a week ago, taken when all the others were still in, gave Biden a 29%-23% lead and Sanders cancelled a planned event in Missouri (which he seems to have given up on) the other day to spend the time in Michigan. There is a new poll this morning, though, which is devastating, putting Joe miles ahead with 54% to 33%. If Sanders is thrashed in Michigan, it’s hard to know where he can look for recovery.

Its a big turnround from a few weeks ago.  Gonna be more fascinating results. What would you put this down to..simplistic question I know

Firstly, I don’t think Biden was ever on the ropes quite as much as was made out. He was always going to do poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire, though he did worse than expected. He made a daft claim that he could win in Iowa, which caused a lot of the narrative when he trailed in. If he had just said it’s probably not going to be good, but wait til South Carolina, he might have had a less uncomfortable time.  
 
Joe has two big advantages before anything else happens:

- Black voters. Biden is their man. They have long memories and believe that Joe has had their back going way back. In the absence of a Black candidate (who would still have to share with him), he has a lock on that section of the electorate, similar to the Clintons. It did start to crumble a bit in South Carolina, where his 30 point lead was down to single figures until Jim Clyburn stepped in. Clyburn is the third-ranking member of the House, and a god to Blacks in South Carolina. His endorsement saw Biden immediately tick back up and take the State by 30 points a couple of days later, which had a domino effect as Blacks throughout the South came together and Biden won every Southern State on the Tuesday. Clyburn’s endorsement may turn out to be the single biggest influence on who will be President.

- Likeability. There’s no getting away from it - people like Joe Biden, maybe more than any other politician. Many love him. They see him as a normal guy who has worked hard and is genuinely doing his best, and not out to benefit himself. He stumbles over his words and says strange things sometimes, but they don’t care. These things ring alarms with political activists and media, but the public will give him a pass, similar to George W, on the same basis that they feel his heart is in the right place. They know his word-mangling is partly due to a lifetime stutter that he had to work hard to overcome in his early adult years. They also have huge sympathy for his tragic personal life, and admire how he handled it, so he gets a bank of sympathy votes too.

Those things all existed when he seemed to be losing but, when things turned around, he had that solid ground to build on, which is a higher base than others would have.

- Late Deciders. This is an unusual election, in that a lot of Democratic and Independent voters aren’t too concerned about policies. All they want is to get Trump and his gang out of the White House and they will back anyone who looks like they can beat him, whether they are left, right or centre, which is one of the reasons Sanders came close to the nomination this year. Many preferred Joe, but thought he was shot and just couldn’t win the nomination, let alone beat Trump, so they would have been prepared to go with someone who looked more likely to dislodge Donald. Once he started to show that he could be a winner, they came over in droves. Super Tuesday was defined by Late Deciders – there were a lot more than usual and they almost all came to Biden.

- Endorsements. It wasn’t just Clyburn. Once South Carolina came in so high, people realised that Biden could do it, but they needed to help. I think the word must have gone out from Dem Central that they needed to do this right then, because there did seem to be co-ordination in it. Pete, Amy and Beto all piled in, and brought people with them. The importance of endorsements in US politics seems very strange to us. Surely it doesn’t matter much whether you are endorsed by Beto and Pete? Fact is, it matters a lot. Their politics is much more personality-based and these people have very loyal followers. Some see it like they have been given a release, ie they weren’t necessarily going to vote for Joe, but if Beto says it’s ok, it must be. Many of Pete or Amy’s supporters might have been heading in Warren’s direction until their dear leader directed them to Biden. Also, endorsements lead to donations, as donors recognise that this is a viable candidate.
 
Winning Massachusetts was probably the most stunning achievement. Joe didn’t even try there - he had one office in the whole State, with two staff. Two! He last made a speech there in April 2019 and hardly ran any advertising. With a week to go, he was fifth in State polls and the talk was about whether Warren would be humiliated by finishing behind Bernie in her home State. That happened, but Biden overtook them both. How? What changed was the big win in South Carolina, showing that he could be a winner, the endorsements releasing voters to lend their vote to him, and a general perception that things were moving in his direction.

Clyburn Endorsement → Black Voters → South Carolina Result → Other Endorsements → Donors → Late Deciders → Super Tuesday → More Endorsements → More Donors → Michigan → Nomination

Cheers, really appreciate the reply - provides me with more knowledge about the process in one post than I've gained in a lifetime :-)

[MintTrav]

If you’re not aware of what I mean by Biden’s tragic personal life, his first wife and one-year-old daughter were killed in a car crash, which also hospitalised his two sons, aged three and four. Joe had just been elected to the Senate as the youngest Senator at the time and the sixth-youngest in history (he was still 29 when he was elected, but would be 30 before the term started, making him eligible). The accident happened before he had been sworn in and he almost stood down. Instead, the nation watched him being sworn in at the hospital, beside his son Beau's bed.

Click to see full-size image.

He was immediately high-profile at the Senate due to his age and the tragedy. He commuted 90 minutes by train from Delaware to DC every day, so he could be home every night, which he continued throughout his career, much later admitting that seeing the family was more for his benefit than theirs. His staff had instructions that he was always to be interrupted if his sons called, for any reason. He was a single father for some years before remarrying after the boys badgered him to do so. He has never since worked on 18 Dec, the date of the accident.

Here he was speaking to some gold star families in 2012:




And then, it got worse. In the above talk, not included here, he says that no child should predecease their parent, but that was to happen to him for a second time. Beau went on to become Attorney General of the State of Delaware and was favourite to become Governor, but he got brain cancer and died in 2015. Joe had been intending to run for President in 2016, but then wavered for months, before eventually deciding not to. At one stage it seemed that the Vice-President might have to remortgage his house to pay for Beau's medical costs, and he has told of how Obama offered to cover them.

[MintTrav]

.

[Ironside]

you think they will get the trump on the masked singer?

[RED-DOG]

Joe Biden. What an incredible story Minty.

I dismissed him with a stroke of my keyboard too. That'll teach me.

[tikay]

Joe Biden. What an incredible story Minty.

I dismissed him with a stroke of my keyboard too. That'll teach me.

Ditto.

Seems like Mr Biden is a rarity amongst USA politicians - a genuinely decent man. Think that applied to Obama, but certainly not to Clinton or Trump.

Loving your work Mr Mint.

[Ironside]

FFS guess i am going to be on a 4 month lockdown with my mum

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR3Ab4M2wmPnWheobBPyRFdzuhj_NzG1QAQU8fXixiUabd6KLmexadbtB-g

[Marky147]

Loving your work Mr Mint.

[Marky147]

Everything that is going on, and the donald is still tweeting about HRC's emails