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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 449977 times)
MintTrav
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« Reply #270 on: March 06, 2016, 01:47:49 PM »

Cruz has rejected Romney's idea of the candidates working together against Trump. He would be unlikely to benefit from a brokered deal, so there wouldn't seem much point in him playing ball. He set up ten offices in Florida this week. Ten! He has no chance of winning Florida, and it is a winner-take-all State, so he won't get more delegates, but he is diverting resources from States where he could win. The only reason to do so is to try to take votes from Rubio, as there is overlap in their support, in the hope that Rubio drops out if he doesn't win Florida.

A brokered Convention probably wouldn't favour Rubio either. Presenting the public with a stitch-up candidate who has been beaten time after time seems so undemocratic. If only there was an alternative candidate the party could turn to in its hour of need.

Mitt's plan is designed to help Mitt.

Rubio might not even come into consideration. Current GOP rules require a candidate to have got the most delegates in eight States to be included in the second count. It looks like only Trump and Cruz will meet this criterion. It could be that no-one except Trump does so, without him passing the 1237 barrier. Surely he would be entitled to claim the nomination then. It is a new rule, brought in to thwart maverick candidates from overhauling mainstream ones, but it is unexpectedly working the other way round, so it seems likely that they will reverse the rule before the Convention, bare-facedly favouring one candidate over another.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2016, 02:20:34 PM by MintTrav » Logged
MintTrav
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« Reply #271 on: March 06, 2016, 06:16:37 PM »

When the General Election comes, the Democrats will dig up all these attacks the Republicans are making on each other and use them against whoever gets the nomination.

Here is an LBJ ad from 1964, where they did just that. One of those from his own party quoted as having attacked Goldwater sounds familiar.

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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #272 on: March 06, 2016, 06:46:51 PM »

Independent candidate 40/1. Miniscule chance of Bernie and none zero chance of trump. Are we close to this? Was independent a 1m/1 shor prior to this year? Supports the black swan theory.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #273 on: March 06, 2016, 10:33:54 PM »

Just when people are ready to declare Rubio's run over, Puerto Rico comes along at just the right moment. If he receives more than 50% of the votes, he will snag all 23 delegates. Expect him to get over 70% and record the biggest winning margin of anyone so far. Super timing, not just for there but it will give him a boost heading into Florida, as well as in other States with high Latino populations.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #274 on: March 07, 2016, 09:31:17 AM »

The broadcast evening news diet for 25 million Americans...

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« Reply #275 on: March 07, 2016, 01:24:40 PM »

A week ago Rubio was 3/1 and Kasich was 40/1 to get the nomination - now they're both 9/1.
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buffyslayer1
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« Reply #276 on: March 08, 2016, 08:22:29 PM »

this would be fun

CNN: Source close to Romneys says goal is to lock Trump out in brokered convention. CNN says Romney or maybe Ryan could be candidate.

Translation for thickos please

If you don't win 1237 delegates, then the Republican candidate is decided at the convention. This is a brokered deal between all of GOP top brass/delegates. Trump would have no chance. I do think lots of them would rather lose than have Trump as their candidate. It would be good if Trump and Bernie ran as independents, it would be kind of like actual democracy.

That would actually be pretty awesome. It's a Rock Paper Scissors kind of deal. I don't think Bernie could beat Trump if it were head-to-head, I don't think Trump could beat Hillary, but I do think Bernie could beat Trump and Hillary (and Cruz/Rubio) if it were split four ways.

In all polls Bernie smashes Trump in a head to head. In fact in the polls so far sanders is in quite a lead in head to head v any republican nomination

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

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MintTrav
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« Reply #277 on: March 09, 2016, 01:32:33 AM »

The Republicans are voting today in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii.

Trump is leading the polls in all of them, but Cruz' position has been improving all over the country over the last week. On Saturday, Cruz won two States by large margins, recording 46% and 48%, and lost two by small amounts (receiving the same number of delegates as Trump in Louisiana).

Michigan is the big one today. Kasich has spent quite a bit of time there, but was still tailed off fourth in the polls less than a week ago. Since then, he has surged, largely at Rubio's expense, though Trump has lost a bit too. Trump still has a gap at the top and still looks likely to win, but Kasich seems to be reducing the gap and should collect a lot of delegates. Rubio is struggling to get back above 15%, and may actually get no delegates. 
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MintTrav
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« Reply #278 on: March 09, 2016, 01:54:20 AM »

A message from some real Americans:

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Woodsey
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« Reply #279 on: March 09, 2016, 02:08:21 AM »

He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #280 on: March 09, 2016, 02:51:30 AM »

He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.

I'm sure a lot of his eye-catching positions are just for show and to suck up all the air-time. The Republicans had several much 'better' candidates but they couldn't get any exposure cos all the air-time was consumed by reaction to Trump's provocative statements. He is unpredictable and has substantial character flaws, but such policies that he has specified have been more rational than those of the other pair. Cruz gets his policies from the Bible and would have been examined and blown away by now like previous religious zealots if more air-time was spent on that. Rubio is an extremist on nearly everything except immigration. I think he is scored as the most right-wing Senator (can't be bothered to check). Any other year, he would have been derided as an extremist and dropped from the race by now. Trump is far to the left of both - you could probably place him as centre-left (by American standards, ie centre-right by UK standards). Whenever they get onto Healthcare, Trump says that he is not going to let people die on the streets, and the others react like he has just put forward the most Socialist policy imaginable. All three are terrible options and I would be unhappy if any of them became President, but I think I'd rather have Trump if we had to have one of them.

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cheesies
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« Reply #281 on: March 09, 2016, 08:52:21 AM »

Betfair has Bernie for prez at 19:1 - does that seem a bit long? Given he just won michigan, which could influence other important midwestern states, and wins vs any repub in the polls? Obv still a big underdog but 19:1 seems a little much maybe
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TightEnd
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« Reply #282 on: March 09, 2016, 10:14:19 AM »

1986 letter from Tampa Bay Bandits owner John F. Bassett, threatening to punch Donald Trump in the mouth.

 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #283 on: March 09, 2016, 10:30:16 PM »

He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.


So when he says what he thinks he's sticking to his guns, but when someone else says what they think they are bitching spineless jellyfish wankers?

How does that work then?
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david3103
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« Reply #284 on: March 09, 2016, 11:44:30 PM »

He's pretty extreme for sure but I like the fact that he just says what he wants to say and sticks two fingers up to anyone that doesn't like it, fair play. Don't agree with a lot of what he says but good on him for sticking to his guns, would prefer that than some spineless jellyfish that caves in to PC wankers bitching because they have no backbone.


So when he says what he thinks he's sticking to his guns, but when someone else says what they think they are bitching spineless jellyfish wankers?

How does that work then?


Well, obviously your misinterpretation of Woodsey's post wouldn't work at all.

Mind you, Drumpf has changed his views more often than <insert your example here>.
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