The Next President of the United States

[MintTrav]

It's time for the voting to start. Iowa is first to vote as always, and it's tonight. Despite a population of only 3 million, and accounting for just 1% of the party delegates, Iowa is critical to the US Presidential race. It is surprisingly important to do well - poor results there have led to many favourites' campaigns going off the rails, while it has been a springboard for others who hadn't shone prior to Iowa. It has a ludicrous voting process that nobody understands, which seems quite appropriate. There are almost 1,700 precincts, including 24 out of state and three international, for voters who can't get home to vote. The international ones are located, as you would expect, in Tbilisi, Paris and Glasgow. I'm not making this up.

You can forget about secret ballots. Voters gather in a school gym or wherever and have to stand in the group belonging to their preferred candidate. Thirty minutes of persuasion is allowed at this point, when voters can visit other groups to ask questions about that candidate and groups can send persuaders to other groups to nick voters from them. At that point, they determine how many voters are needed for candidates to be 'viable', which is 15% of the votes. Another thirty minutes of 'persuasion' is then allowed, during which supporters of those who don't hit 15% move to one of the groups that did, though supporters of different non-viable candidates can join together to make one of them viable (they can even form an uncommitted group, which I really don't understand).

Everyone who exceeds 15% at this stage gets some delegates to the County Convention, the number of delegates depending on how many votes they got, though obviously it would be too simple to award delegates in proportion to votes, when you can base them on a complicated formula instead. Each group then elects its delegates to the County Convention. That's just the start of it. If you think the County Convention determines the delegates for the National Convention, you really don't get this. The County Convention elects delegates to the District and State Conventions, which is where the pledged Delegates and unpledged Super-Delegates to the National convention are elected (if you're pledged you can't decide to switch your vote, if you're unpledged you can). We have previously just been told the number of delegates but this time we will also be told the number of votes in the first round and second round, so there could be multiple candidates claiming victory tomorrow.

The Republican process is not exactly the same but quite similar and equally ludicrous. In 2012, Mitt Romney was first named the winner, but this was amended two weeks later and Rick Santorum was declared to have received the most votes, the top three being Santorum 29,839, Romney 29,805, Ron Paul 26,036. Of course, that counts for nothing as it's all about the delegates to County and who they vote for as delegates to District and State - and who those vote for as delegates to National. The crazy system meant that no-one had any idea how many of the 25 pledged and 3 unpledged delegates candidates would get. NBC predicted that Romney and Santorum would get 11 pledged delegates each, with Paul getting 3. Associated Press and the New York Times predicted Romney to get 13 and Santorum 12, which the others getting none. Fox said 12 each for Romney and Santorum, while CNN said 7 each for the top three, with Newt Gingrich getting 2 (both companies leaving some delegates unpredicted). What actually happened was that Paul was far better organised than the others and pulled off a masterful coup by securing key election committee positions for his supporters, ultimately resulting in him getting 22 delegates, Romney getting 6 and Santorum getting none. And if that isn't madness, and indeed undemocratic, I don't know what is.

[MintTrav]

The first result is in from the town of Ottumwa, which held a midday caucus for shift workers at a pork factory, which was mainly attended by Ethiopian immigrant workers.

The result was a landslide:
Sanders 14
Warren 1
Everyone else 0

The Warren supporter refused to realign and it was all over in minutes, with Sanders winning all four delegates to the County Convention. If this result is repeated throughout the State and the nation, Sanders will secure the nomination within a month.

Click to see full-size image.

The first caucus was actually held at an apartment in Tbilisi, which three people attended, but the result is not yet known. With one-third of the votes each, all of their candidates will clear the 15% hurdle and will be viable.  https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/iowa-caucuses-tbilisi/

[4KSuited]

It's time for the voting to start. Iowa is first to vote as always, and it's tonight. Despite a population of only 3 million, and accounting for just 1% of the party delegates, Iowa is critical to the US Presidential race. It is surprisingly important to do well - poor results there have led to many favourites' campaigns going off the rails, while it has been a springboard for others who hadn't shone prior to Iowa. It has a ludicrous voting process that nobody understands, which seems quite appropriate. There are almost 1,700 precincts, including 24 out of state and three international, for voters who can't get home to vote. The international ones are located, as you would expect, in Tbilisi, Paris and Glasgow. I'm not making this up.

You can forget about secret ballots. Voters gather in a school gym or wherever and have to stand in the group belonging to their preferred candidate. Thirty minutes of persuasion is allowed at this point, when voters can visit other groups to ask questions about that candidate and groups can send persuaders to other groups to nick voters from them. At that point, they determine how many voters are needed for candidates to be 'viable', which is 15% of the votes. Another thirty minutes of 'persuasion' is then allowed, during which supporters of those who don't hit 15% move to one of the groups that did, though supporters of different non-viable candidates can join together to make one of them viable (they can even form an uncommitted group, which I really don't understand).

Everyone who exceeds 15% at this stage gets some delegates to the County Convention, the number of delegates depending on how many votes they got, though obviously it would be too simple to award delegates in proportion to votes, when you can base them on a complicated formula instead. Each group then elects its delegates to the County Convention. That's just the start of it. If you think the County Convention determines the delegates for the National Convention, you really don't get this. The County Convention elects delegates to the District and State Conventions, which is where the pledged Delegates and unpledged Super-Delegates to the National convention are elected (if you're pledged you can't decide to switch your vote, if you're unpledged you can). We have previously just been told the number of delegates but this time we will also be told the number of votes in the first round and second round, so there could be multiple candidates claiming victory tomorrow.

The Republican process is not exactly the same but quite similar and equally ludicrous. In 2012, Mitt Romney was first named the winner, but this was amended two weeks later and Rick Santorum was declared to have received the most votes, the top three being Santorum 29,839, Romney 29,805, Ron Paul 26,036. Of course, that counts for nothing as it's all about the delegates to County and who they vote for as delegates to District and State - and who those vote for as delegates to National. The crazy system meant that no-one had any idea how many of the 25 pledged and 3 unpledged delegates candidates would get. NBC predicted that Romney and Santorum would get 11 pledged delegates each, with Paul getting 3. Associated Press and the New York Times predicted Romney to get 13 and Santorum 12, which the others getting none. Fox said 12 each for Romney and Santorum, while CNN said 7 each for the top three, with Newt Gingrich getting 2 (both companies leaving some delegates unpredicted). What actually happened was that Paul was far better organised than the others and pulled off a masterful coup by securing key election committee positions for his supporters, ultimately resulting in him getting 22 delegates, Romney getting 6 and Santorum getting none. And if that isn't madness, and indeed undemocratic, I don't know what is.

Ha! How much more evidence is required to prove that democracy in the USA is well & truly dead?

[nirvana]

Thanks for this. Was trying to understand the system but didn't grasp it. I feel a bit better informed now while still not having a clue

[MintTrav]

Chaos, mayhem, disaster - choose your own description of the mess that the Iowa caucuses have become. Malfunctioning software and “reporting inconsistencies” have caused a hugely embarrassing situation that will sustain every conspiracy theorist for months.

All reports indicate that Biden’s vote collapsed spectacularly and Sanders romped home, with Buttigieg doing very well, Warren close behind and Joe a distant 4th.

If the delay lasts a few hours, it won’t be so bad. Biden will be hoping it goes on for weeks, so he has banked South Carolina and others and Iowa is old news by the time it comes out. News sites are saying there were no winners, but it’s not true - there are two big losers (Biden and the DNC) and several winners. While Sanders, Buttigieg and Warren are likely to be satisfied, Bloomberg and Trump may be more so. Meanwhile, Twitter has awarded the win to Jeb Bush, Simone Biles, La La Land, Harambe and Votey McVoteface.

[RED-DOG]

WP Minty. I've never enjoyed politics so much.

[DungBeetle]

Outstanding stuff Mint.  Thanks for this read.

[MintTrav]

Thanks guys, feedback keeps me going. Not sure if I’ve said this before, but I’d have given up ages ago without it, so cheers!

[tikay]

Thanks guys, feedback keeps me going. Not sure if I’ve said this before, but I’d have given up ages ago without it, so cheers!

I don't comment much Mint as I don't know enough on the subject to comment without making a fool of myself, but I love reading your stuff.

[tikay]

Best of 3?

[Marky147]

Thanks guys, feedback keeps me going. Not sure if I’ve said this before, but I’d have given up ages ago without it, so cheers!

I don't comment much Mint as I don't know enough on the subject to comment without making a fool of myself, but I love reading your stuff.

That's why I comment, so you're only the 2nd most clueless one here

[MintTrav]

It seems that we’ll have “most” of the results at 5pm EST. I’m not sure whether it’s a good idea to release “most” of the results. I guess it is if it’s 90%, but not if it means 60%. They might be better advised to wait til they have “all” of the results.

They issued a statement earlier where they seemed almost proud to declare that it wasn’t a cyber-attack, seemingly oblivious that were saying ‘We weren’t hacked. It was a screw-up entirely of our own making.” It seems that the data collection and processing were fine - the issues were with the extraction and reporting of the results. Isn’t that always the way? I don’t know how many system implementations I’ve seen that have focused on the processing and ignored the reporting, whereas you should start with the reports you want to get out and work backwards.

Some precincts tried to report their results by phone, which was the official back-up plan, but were left on hold for hours as the centre wrestled with its problems. One of them made several tweets about it, but what caught my eye were the results he tweeted, which were Sanders 111, Warren 82, Buttigieg 47, which translated into two delegates each. Ignoring the rest, that totalled to 240 votes, of which Pete got just over one sixth and Bernie got nearly half, ie 46%, 34% and just under 20%. It couldn’t be a clearer 3/2/1, so what kind of clever formula resulted in 2/2/2? One based on the realigned second count is the answer. There were 285 votes in total, so Pete must have scooped on transfers from non-viables. There are other similar examples and many accusations that the DNC is turning Bernie over for the second time, countered by some Twitterwags saying he can’t complain cos Socialism means equal shares for all.

The Iowa caucuses’ day has long passed (if they ever had one). It is an undemocratic charade, where huge emphasis is placed on a few votes in a small mostly-White State (the White population has declined over the years to the current all-time low of 91%). Even amongst Whites, huge groups are disenfranchised. If you can’t give up a couple of hours at a specific time you can’t vote, so shift-workers, parents, disabled and people with something else to do find it difficult, resulting in a 16% turnout. And those few votes weigh like gold in a country with a population of 330 million. The Democrats are fighting against disenfranchisement everywhere else, particularly of ethnic minorities, so it doesn’t look good for them to practice it themselves. There are numerous other inconsistencies, anachronisms and undemocratic elements to the Iowa caucuses, and many people want them abolished. Let’s hope that never happens!

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/10/iowa-satellite-caucus-democrats-voting-rights/598999/

[MintTrav]

Here’s another of Iowa’s lovable distortions of democracy. Splitting a fixed number of delegates between a small number of voters in each precinct leads to plenty of instances where it’s not apparent who should get the final delegate. Sometimes it’s because two candidates have received the same votes but it can be just that the maths don’t work out. There are a few ways they could avoid this happening, but why bother after all this time? Fair representation has already been tossed out the window for the reasons discussed above and some other reasons, so there hardly seems much point in pretending to deal with this in a logical manner, so they don’t. They just toss a coin. At least it’s an honest admission that the whole State’s election process is nonsense. In 2016, there were 13 coin tosses, and there have been plenty this time too, some of which can be seen here:

https://www.redstate.com/brandon_morse/2020/02/04/democratic-iowa-ballot-managers-deciding-who-wins-delegates-with-coin-toss/

[tikay]

I have no idea who Nancy Pelosi bats for, but I like her.

[bookiebasher]

Thanks guys, feedback keeps me going. Not sure if I’ve said this before, but I’d have given up ages ago without it, so cheers!

Really appreciate your posts , so thanks for taking the time to do the write ups.

It's the first time Donald has got to Pelosi by not shaking her hand. In the past Pelosi has always
seemed to get the better of him by remaining cool calm and collected , knowing exactly the right words
to say to touch a nerve with him.

I do find it really incredible that the Donald can lie with such impunity. The State of the Nation speech
was full of bullshit and the Republicans soaked it all up as usual.

Also equally incredulous was the Iowa caucus. What a ramshackled tin pot system where you have to spend
hours sorting out who votes for who. Really cannot see how the process is democratic when it excludes so
many people for a number of different reasons.

No way that the Iowa caucus will survive in 4 years time.

My girl hanging on in there , after 62% of results in 3rd place , not far behind in the popular vote to the top 2.

Surely with Biden finishing 4th and burning cash faster than the others he cannot get to South Carolina , his
firewall , without it affecting his chances.

Bloomberg as short as 9-2 on the exchange , in national polls , tied with Warren in 3rd place.

Will be amazed with his record in New York that he can coalesce the black vote which is vital to win a
democratic nomination.

It all looks to be playing into the hands of the Donald , struggle to see Bernie the socialist or Pete
beating him.

Obviously I am biased though 

Do my dough if Biden or Bloomberg win nomination and will need to find a job 

Bernie or Pete give me a summer of golf.

My girl gives me 3-4 years of doing diddly squat.

Anybody else it's a push.