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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 664737 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #3915 on: July 10, 2020, 03:31:49 PM »

Cheesy Cheesy

See even Fox have been giving the don some stick now, and taking his advisers to task.

What a time we live in.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3916 on: July 10, 2020, 06:18:16 PM »



Cog me up!
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Marky147
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« Reply #3917 on: July 14, 2020, 11:06:45 PM »



Gift that keeps on giving.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3918 on: July 15, 2020, 10:38:08 PM »



Giving her so much material, we should change the name of the thread Grin
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Marky147
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« Reply #3919 on: July 16, 2020, 02:15:59 AM »

 Click to see full-size image.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3920 on: July 16, 2020, 02:22:42 AM »



Imagine how bad Bozvaldo would look, if they didn't have the donald (and lots of americans) over there.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #3921 on: July 18, 2020, 11:38:55 AM »

There’s good news and bad news from the Republican Primaries.

Jeff Sessions, who represented Alabama in the Senate for 20 years, gave up his seat when he was asked to become Attorney General. His safe Republican seat fell to the Democrats in the subsequent bye-election when the GOP shot itself in the foot by putting up retired judge Roy Moore, who was reported to have tried to seduce girls in their early teens when he was in his thirties. Although Republicans are expecting losses In November, this is one of their few opportunities to win one. This is the Dems’ most vulnerable seat, as they really had no business nicking it in the first place, so it was expected that Sessions would be back in November.



But the unthinkable has happened. Jeff was challenged in the Republican Primary, Trump threw his weight behind the challenger, tweeting for voters to reject Sessions, and they did, in a 60-40 landslide. It was another example of Trump’s vindictiveness, especially as he might never have got where he is without Sessions. Back in February 2016, no-one in the party was taking him seriously, and Sessions was the first member of Congress to support him, giving him credibility that had been absent until then. Jeff also donated his best aide and speechwriter, Stephen Miller, who has written most of the President’s most memorable speeches.

On the other hand, there is good news from Texas. Remember Rear Admiral Ronny Jackson, the White House doctor who said Trump was in excellent shape due to his “incredibly good genes”? He has just won the House Primary in Texas’ 13th District. Ronny based his campaign on his relationship with Trump but, if he was expecting an easy campaign, he made it hard for himself with a series of rookie mistakes. His fund-raising was poor, and his campaign manager had another full-time job, so the only full-time campaign staff were Ronny’s wife and a recent graduate who was working for nothing. He and his wife wasted hours door-knocking empty houses in the daytime, when everyone was at work, and they attended a rally near the border, where most of the attendees were from Oklahoma and couldn’t vote for him. His only campaign message was that he knows everyone in the Cabinet and he could walk into the Oval Office to see Trump, yet he failed to use his connections to rescue his floundering campaign. Jackson managed to finish second in the first round of voting, qualifying for the run-off, but with half the votes of a Director of the Texas Cattle Feeders Association. Luckily, Don Jr and Kimberly Guilfoyle realised that his campaign was sinking and sent in two of the most senior members of Trump’s re-election team to sort it out. The upshot was that Ronny has scraped in, benefitting from a month’s delay due to the Covid, enabling him to catch up. This is one of the most conservative Districts in the country, and winning the GOP nomination guarantees that we’ll be seeing Ronny in Congress after the election.

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Marky147
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« Reply #3922 on: July 18, 2020, 09:24:23 PM »

Is the guy that has beat Sessions more likely to win against the Democratic nominee than Sessions himself was then?

How on earth did he make Admiral? Doesn't look like too much of a genius, reading that Cheesy
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Marky147
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« Reply #3923 on: July 19, 2020, 07:46:17 PM »



This should be a beauty.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #3924 on: July 22, 2020, 04:00:34 AM »

Is the guy that has beat Sessions more likely to win against the Democratic nominee than Sessions himself was then?

How on earth did he make Admiral? Doesn't look like too much of a genius, reading that Cheesy

Any Republican should win in Alabama. Losing that seat was an embarrassing own-goal purely down to selecting such an unpalatable candidate, and then not replacing him when the scandal unfolded.

Jackson was't really an Admiral in the sense that we would think of it. A Rear-Admiral (lower half) in the US is equivalent to a Commodore in other Navies. That still sounds reasonably senior, but all civil and military services have professional streams for architects, accountants, doctors, engineers, etc, who can achieve apparently high ranks, but can't cross over into the general stream. Ronny was a Captain when he was appointed to the White House, and was later promoted. He has never commanded a ship, or indeed anything much else other than the White House Medical Unit, which has a staff of 24.

This is one of the reasons Trump's attempt to install him as Secretary for Veterans' Affairs (a Cabinet position) was so ludicrous. The VA is the second-largest government department, with a vast health, benefits and cemeteries network run by 378,000 staff, and an annual budget of over $270bn, and he wanted it to be led by someone with almost no management experience. Also, Jackson had a poor reputation for the small amount of management he did, as well as one for excessive drinking, and had the nickname 'The Candy Man' because of how freely he dispensed drugs in the White House. Senators from both sides were aghast at someone so unqualified being nominated and, with Republicans and Democrats united against the nomination, Ronny had to withdraw. His haphazard management of his election campaign would seem to prove that the concerns over his lack of management experience were justified. Not tapping Trump for help, when his whole campaign was based on his ability to do just that, is almost disqualifying in itself.

One policy opinion Ronny has expressed, despite being a doctor, is that he is opposed to mandatory mask-wearing, as he believes it should be a personal choice, not something the government should impose on people, thereby demonstrating that he is far better suited to the role of Republican Congressman, where he can freely express such dumb beliefs, than running a government department.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3925 on: July 22, 2020, 03:56:47 PM »

Is the guy that has beat Sessions more likely to win against the Democratic nominee than Sessions himself was then?

How on earth did he make Admiral? Doesn't look like too much of a genius, reading that Cheesy

Any Republican should win in Alabama. Losing that seat was an embarrassing own-goal purely down to selecting such an unpalatable candidate, and then not replacing him when the scandal unfolded.

Jackson was't really an Admiral in the sense that we would think of it. A Rear-Admiral (lower half) in the US is equivalent to a Commodore in other Navies. That still sounds reasonably senior, but all civil and military services have professional streams for architects, accountants, doctors, engineers, etc, who can achieve apparently high ranks, but can't cross over into the general stream. Ronny was a Captain when he was appointed to the White House, and was later promoted. He has never commanded a ship, or indeed anything much else other than the White House Medical Unit, which has a staff of 24.

This is one of the reasons Trump's attempt to install him as Secretary for Veterans' Affairs (a Cabinet position) was so ludicrous. The VA is the second-largest government department, with a vast health, benefits and cemeteries network run by 378,000 staff, and an annual budget of over $270bn, and he wanted it to be led by someone with almost no management experience. Also, Jackson had a poor reputation for the small amount of management he did, as well as one for excessive drinking, and had the nickname 'The Candy Man' because of how freely he dispensed drugs in the White House. Senators from both sides were aghast at someone so unqualified being nominated and, with Republicans and Democrats united against the nomination, Ronny had to withdraw. His haphazard management of his election campaign would seem to prove that the concerns over his lack of management experience were justified. Not tapping Trump for help, when his whole campaign was based on his ability to do just that, is almost disqualifying in itself.

One policy opinion Ronny has expressed, despite being a doctor, is that he is opposed to mandatory mask-wearing, as he believes it should be a personal choice, not something the government should impose on people, thereby demonstrating that he is far better suited to the role of Republican Congressman, where he can freely express such dumb beliefs, than running a government department.


Yeah, I know a couple people from that neck of the woods, and they love the donald.

Just a plastic one that slid in sideways then. Sounds like the perfect man for Trump, so no surprise he tried getting him as senior as possible, lol.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #3926 on: July 23, 2020, 01:05:11 PM »

The selection process for Joe Biden's running mate will be wrapping up soon. This time round is more important than usual, not so much for this election, but because the person chosen will be in prime position to secure the Dem's nomination when Biden stands down, and become the first female President.

Many Vice Presidents been given largely ceremonial roles in the past, and have been almost ignored by the President, but in recent times they have tended to be heavily involved, included as part of the President's core team and usually having their own specific areas of responsibility. The position can be a stepping stone for a rising star who goes on to run for President themselves, like Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, George Bush Snr and Al Gore (even losing VP candidates like Bob Dole, Joe Lieberman and John Edwards have run for President later), or a stopover where an elder statesman can download their knowledge before retirement, like it was supposed to be for Lyndon Johnson and Joe Biden, though neither worked out that way.

It's standard to pick a person who brings something that you don't have. Often, it's that they are from a different wing of the party, so you get the "dream-ticket" of a progressive and a conservative, though it's more likely to be one of those with a moderate, rather than the two extremes together. Running mates have also often been picked because they were from a particular State or region where the top of the ticket wasn't strong. Some have been picked for gender or ethnic reasons or for generational balance. Sometimes you can satisfy a more than one of these objectives in a single person, as with the original Dream Ticket of Kennedy/Johnson.

There is little evidence that any of these factors matter. There isn't an election that can be identified where a particular constituency came on board or a State was won because of the running mate, yet campaigns continue to weigh these factors. More often than not, the most important principle is that the choice doesn't damage the campaign, though this is a rule that has been overlooked, with horrific consequences, more than once. Despite all the beauty contests and pre-selection vetting, several running-mates (eg Spiro Agnew, Geraldine Ferraro, Dan Quayle, Sarah Palin) have quickly become liabilities, with McCain and Palin scarcely on speaking terms by the end of their unhappy campaign.

George W may have had the right idea. Dick Cheney wasn't particularly good at public politics and didn't represent any group that Bush wouldn't win anyway. In fact, he had to change his State from Texas as the Prez and Veep can't be from the same State. However, he had been White House Chief of Staff for Gerald Ford and was Secretary of Defence under Bush Snr. Dubya chose him for his ability to help run the country rather than for electoral purposes.

Reasons for choosing a Running Mate:
- Progressive/Moderate/Conservative - Kennedy/Johnson, Reagan/Bush, Dukakis/Bentsen, McCain/Palin, Romney/Ryan, Obama/Biden, Trump/Pence
- Swing State - Bush/Quayle (Indiana), Kennedy/Johnson (Texas), Dukakis/Bentsen (Texas)
- Gender - Mondale/Ferraro, McCain/Palin
- Ethnic - Mondale/Ferraro
- Mixed generations - Bush/Quayle, Gore/Lieberman, Kennedy/Johnson, McCain/Palin, GWB/Cheney
- Washington experience - Many of the VP candidates, eg Johnson, Bentsen, Bush, Cheney, Ryan, but Trump/Pence more than any
- Party mending - Reagan/Bush, Trump/Pence

Biden has made it clear what he is looking for in various interviews and speeches. He keeps mentioning the same two primary requirements, which are that they have to be of similar views to him and they have to already be ready to take over as President "on Day 1". Some of his stated requirements:
- There has to be some correlation between their views and mine.
- I’m going to pick someone who is simpatico with me philosophically.
- Someone who is simpatico with where I want to take the country. We can disagree on tactic but not on strategy.
- They are ready on Day 1 to be President of the United States of America.
- They are younger than I am.

So it seems he wants someone he can work with and entrust things to rather than trying to "bring the party together". He also wants someone experienced. It is likely that he could be a one-term President, so would leave this VP in prime position to win the nomination and become the first female President in 2024, but it could happen sooner. Though he is in excellent health, he would be 78 by the time he takes office, so nothing can be ruled out.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #3927 on: July 23, 2020, 01:28:51 PM »

Before looking at the current contenders, there are a few lessons from recent history that the selection committee should bear in mind.
 
George McGovern's campaign in 1972 was undermined by the farce over who would be his running mate. He only addressed the issue after he won the Democrat nomination, and offered the job to Ted Kennedy, who turned it down. He then offered it one-by-one to eight others, who all refused. Finally, after a two-minute phone conversation and no vetting, he found a taker in Senator Tom Eagleton. Because of the delay, McGovern ended up giving his victory speech at 3am, reducing his audience from the expected 70m to just 15m. It soon came out that Eagleton had been hospitalised several times for psychiatric treatment and twice received electro-shock treatment for depression, and he became the only VP candidate ever forced off the ticket, just 18 days after accepting the offer. McGovern again offered it to Kennedy and was turned down again, this time publicly, followed by four other public refusals. Eventually Sargent Shriver (husband of Ted's sister Eunice) accepted the doomed position. A history of depression wouldn't be disqualifying nowadays, but it sure was then. The Eagleton experience meant that VP candidates were all heavily vetted from then on - with one disastrous exception.

In the same election,Richard Nixon was advised to replace the outgoing VP, Spiro Agnew, who was detached from White House activities (and ended up resigning early in the second term after being investigated on suspicion of criminal conspiracy, bribery and extortion and accepting a charge of tax evasion). Nixon said he was keeping Agnew, and gave the logical explanation that no-one would assassinate him so long as Spiro was the replacement.

Ronald Reagan's original choice in 1980 was ex-President Gerald Ford, which was strange considering how his strong challenge to Ford in 1976 had split the party and further weakened Ford's already dubious chances of re-election. However, it soon became clear that Ford viewed his role differently to how Reagan saw it. He considered the offer and came back with policy and personnel demands, such as reappointing Henry Kissinger as Secretary of State. He also gave a TV interview where he spoke about it being a "co-Presidency". Reagan realised, almost too late, that he was unnecessarily setting himself up for continual stress and undermining, so withdrew the offer and tapped George Bush, his main opponent in the Primaries, in an attempt to unite the again-split party after another narrowly-decided contest.

There was a strange sequence in 2000, when George W Bush put Dick Cheney in charge of his selection committee. At the end of the interviews and after weighing everything up, Cheney found that there wasn't anyone he could recommend more than himself. Dubya agreed and Cheney went on to become Vice-President.

John McCain's choice in 2008 was the most poorly managed in recent history. McCain was a heavy underdog to Obama and knew he needed to inject some life into his campaign. He hit on the surprise of having Joe Lieberman as his running mate. Lieberman had almost become Vice President when he was Al Gore's running mate for the Democrats just eight years earlier and now McCain wanted to put him up for the Republicans, which he thought would demonstrate his openness to working across the aisle. Although Lieberman had become an Independent by this stage and had endorsed McCain, this didn't go down well with the rest of his team, to put it mildly. However, McCain was determined and refused to listen to any argument about it, and Joe came very close to running as VP candidate for both parties within the space of eight years.

Eventually McCain was made to see sense, but there was little time left as the announcement was due before the party conference. Although a few standard-issue candidates had been interviewed and heavily vetted, including Mitt Romney, the selection committee recommended an off-beat choice who hadn't been vetted, and McCain went along with it in an attempt to shake up the contest. Sarah Palin was charismatic, attractive, dynamic and articulate, but was entirely based on style and image. The accelerated vetting mainly consisted of internet searches and missed numerous problems with Palin, as well as not flushing out her policy beliefs and her understanding of the issues. McCain scarcely knew her and the campaign scarcely vetted her. However, they must surely have been entitled to expect that a State Governor would be aware of the major political issues. It didn't take long for her to be exposed. In her first interview, she was asked if she agreed with the widely debated 'Bush Doctrine' (the outgoing President's principles of foreign policy), and she didn't know what it was. This was followed by her disastrous interview with Katie Couric, which sealed her characterisation as an airhead, and Saturday Night Live used some of her actual answers in its killer sketch that weekend. The revelations that her teenage daughter was pregnant and her make-up artist was the highest-paid person on the McCain campaign didn't help, but most of the damage was caused by Sarah's unpreparedness for the big stage. The campaign limited her exposure, but she fought back, giving unauthorised interviews and criticising campaign decisions. It was obvious to everyone that they couldn't win, so she let it be known that she was being mismanaged and they let it be known that she had 'gone rogue' and was more interested in positioning for the future than in the current (doomed) campaign. Both sides gave a sigh of relief when it was finally over.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3928 on: July 23, 2020, 02:24:43 PM »

Great read, as always. Thanks very much.

Who do you think he'll pick as his running mate? I know there was lots of noise about Warren a while back, but isn't she too far apart from him on policy, as she is very much after corporate America.
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bookiebasher
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« Reply #3929 on: July 23, 2020, 09:45:32 PM »

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1286392679232942080?s=20

Love The Lincoln Project , they produce some fantastic short video clips.

 Grin
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