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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 427836 times)
MintTrav
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« Reply #4185 on: October 07, 2020, 05:23:23 AM »

2.0 is even money, so Biden is closing in on 1/2 if it keeps moving that way.
Right, well there is money to be made by betting types, cos Biden should be shorter than that. I wouldn’t give Trump much more than a 10% chance at this stage. All the indications are that there aren’t many undecideds available to win over this time, and those that do exist are moving to Biden. Trump’s challenge now isn’t to win - it’s to hold onto enough of his voters to avoid a humiliation.

Nibbling at the edges with good campaigning isn’t going to be enough to stop Biden now. It will take a dramatic incidence such as him having a health scare or scandal, or disintegrating in a debate. Trump being replaced for medical or other reasons might give the Republicans a chance, but that would be a nightmare, as over four million people have already voted, and it’s not clear what would happen with the Trump votes.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #4186 on: October 07, 2020, 06:40:27 AM »

The Trump campaign has just withdrawn ads again from Iowa and Ohio. They won these States by 8% and 9% in 2016, but they have recently become toss-ups, with Trump up 1% and down 0.5%. They have presented the move as one of strength, saying they are confident of these States and “unlike Joe Biden, campaign ads aren’t the only way we know how to campaign.” Forecasters have Biden at about 43/44% chance of winning here, though one has Biden a slight favourite in Ohio. The likelihood is that Trump will get home by a small percentage in both, but they can’t afford to lose any States they won last time, so it’s hard to understand why they are gambling unnecessarily.
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Doobs
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« Reply #4187 on: October 07, 2020, 09:30:29 AM »

Interesting to watch Trump’s return to the White House.

As being reported, he was clearly trying to get his breath whilst stood outside.

The obsession with image and votes might just cost him dearly.





I watched the video and just thought he looked sick too.  

I assumed this can't be good for him but just checked the betting market and Biden is 1.62/1.64 which is about where he was before Trump got sick.

It is probably because Trump is at the stage he has done so many awful things that the new ones just don't make any difference to his supporters.  I do too much shrugging and thinking that is Trump too, so it isn't just his supporters.

Just stay the fk away from people, it isn't that hard.  Especially given he has free access to the greatest technology and has people to shop and cook for him.

Does that mean you get £1.62 back for a £1 bet, ie 3/5? So Trump would be something less the other way round, eg 5/4? That seems crazy. All the polls are pointing one way, the only difference being that Biden is getting further ahead, not just in national polls, but also in the Swing States. He isn't as far ahead in those States as nationally, but he is far enough in front for it not to matter. The polls weren't that far out in 2016 - Trump outperformed by 2%, but several States were very close and that was enough to tip them his way. Now Biden is 5-6% ahead in a lot of them, so dropping 2% wouldn't matter. Those that are marginal are ones that should be safe Republican, such as Iowa or Ohio. No Republican has won the Presidency for 100 years without claiming Florida and, with the situation elsewhere, Trump can't win without it, but Biden has his nose in front there too.

Nationally the lead is stretching to landslide proportions. And the demographic splits are getting away from him too. He had a 13% lead in men over 50 - now it's down to 1%. With Seniors, Biden is up 62%-35%. With suburban women, it's 58%-33%. These were Trump's best constituencies - now they're abandoning him.

Unless something dramatic happens, this is over.
 

If it isn't clear, I backed Biden already.  It is a good assumption that whenever I talk about odds on Blonde that I have already taken them.  I learned a while ago not to talk about odds been out on Blonde before making the bet.   Having said that the US presidential market is so liquid on betfair you aren't ever moving it much.  If you believe Biden should be 1/10, there is plenty of money there for you.

Anyway Biden is now 1.54/1.55.  Betfair doesn't work like traditional bookies so you don't see 3/5 and 5/4 in a strong market you see 3/5 and 5/3 in a two horse race.  As it is, it isn't a two horse race, so Trump would have been bigger than 5/3 at the time.  Pence came closer to 10/1 when it looked like Trump was more sick, but was 100/1 when I looked yesterday.   I don't know what he is now, but Trump looks sicker than he says and you can go downhill pretty quick on day 7/8.  Trump supporters are so blinkered that some would probably still vote for him if he was dead.

Edit.  I just checked and the lowest price on Pence that was matched was 8.  I assume that was whilst Trump was in hospital, but it is possible it was at another time.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2020, 09:35:08 AM by Doobs » Logged

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« Reply #4188 on: October 07, 2020, 05:48:19 PM »

I have been following this thread and just backed Biden last night at 8/15 for a couple of hundred.

One thing I don't get, so asking the more informed here, but does Pence have a chance if Trump has to pull out?Huh? Is it not Trumps 'personality' and blinkered USA at all costs policy that appeals to his voters, what does Pence bring to the table to replace this? will he get  Republicans disenchanted with Trump to vote Red again ? 8/1 or even 10/1 seems a very low price for Pence.


Also if Biden picks the Virus up in the next few weeks what is the chance of The States voting in a black woman?

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« Reply #4189 on: October 07, 2020, 06:42:56 PM »

The chance of either pulling out at this stage is very small, millions of people have already voted in states that allow early voting as well. If Trump was going to throw it in he would have done so last week from his hospital bed imo.
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nirvana
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« Reply #4190 on: October 07, 2020, 06:58:34 PM »

I know there's constitutional stuff around succession but if Trump died pre election is there a mechanism for Republicans to choose a new candidate who isn't Pence
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« Reply #4191 on: October 07, 2020, 07:49:00 PM »

I know there's constitutional stuff around succession but if Trump died pre election is there a mechanism for Republicans to choose a new candidate who isn't Pence

Yeah , Coco the clown
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Marky147
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« Reply #4192 on: October 07, 2020, 10:20:51 PM »

I know there's constitutional stuff around succession but if Trump died pre election is there a mechanism for Republicans to choose a new candidate who isn't Pence

Eric, the boywonder.
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bunnydas8888
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« Reply #4193 on: October 07, 2020, 10:22:53 PM »

I know there's constitutional stuff around succession but if Trump died pre election is there a mechanism for Republicans to choose a new candidate who isn't Pence

I think if it were to happen, the party would have to nominate another candidate as they normally do, just would be rushed through.

Pence would only 'inherit' the presidency, but wouldn't automatically become the Republican candidate for the election.

Believe this is the same should Biden become incapacitated, the Democrats would still have to formally nominate someone else through the normal process.


(This may be slightly wrong, will leave to someone with better knowledge to correct)
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AndrewT
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« Reply #4194 on: October 07, 2020, 11:49:45 PM »

I know there's constitutional stuff around succession but if Trump died pre election is there a mechanism for Republicans to choose a new candidate who isn't Pence

I think if it were to happen, the party would have to nominate another candidate as they normally do, just would be rushed through.

Pence would only 'inherit' the presidency, but wouldn't automatically become the Republican candidate for the election.

Believe this is the same should Biden become incapacitated, the Democrats would still have to formally nominate someone else through the normal process.


(This may be slightly wrong, will leave to someone with better knowledge to correct)

https://www.vox.com/21502447/trump-biden-death-what-happens

Essentially the easiest option is to go with the VP but they don't have to and there is plenty of scope for shenanigans if the election is close.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #4195 on: October 08, 2020, 01:17:08 AM »

Harris-Pence coming up.

Expectations for Kamala are high, but she needs to be careful. Pence is an old hand who can stonewall anything, and he could be dangerous. She should resist the temptation to go for a star performance and try to temper it down for a nice quiet forgettable debate.

Mike has let it be known that he is going to attack Biden’s record on terrorism - you know, about the tenth most important topic on everyone’s mind right now. Maybe it’s a ruse.

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« Reply #4196 on: October 08, 2020, 11:30:45 AM »

That debate was utterly ridiculous.

No point in having a moderator asking questions as both of them completely ignored the question and
went on a 2 minute speech about a totally different topic.

I know politicians are evasive but that was a whole new level last night.

Pence especially had no intention of answering any question directly and really does come across as
a smarmy privileged sanctimonious piece of shit.

Over 200,000 dead and he keeps congratulating his great leader for a fantastic job on Covid.

Those chuckle brothers really do wind me up .


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Marky147
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« Reply #4197 on: October 08, 2020, 03:27:39 PM »

Nice of the moderator just let them talk about whatever they liked, rather than what was asked.
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Doobs
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« Reply #4198 on: October 09, 2020, 09:47:25 AM »

If somebody in the World didn't realise he is a lunatic, he is allegedly trying to organise a rally in Florida for tomorrow.  Just stay in quarantine you crazy mofo.  Surely at some stage he experiences some sort of guilt after realising he may have already infected some of the people in his inner circle?  I assume he views at least some of them as friends?   In normal times that wouldn't be the case, but being a friend of Donald Trump seemed to be one of the main criteria for many of these appointments.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/09/donald-trump-florida-rally-saturday-covid-test

Loved the comment a couple of days ago that people were protecting Biden by organising a virtual debate.  I think he genuinely thinks that giving Coronavirus to Biden would be a good test for who is fittest to be President.

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« Reply #4199 on: October 09, 2020, 12:55:29 PM »

If somebody in the World didn't realise he is a lunatic, he is allegedly trying to organise a rally in Florida for tomorrow.  Just stay in quarantine you crazy mofo.  Surely at some stage he experiences some sort of guilt after realising he may have already infected some of the people in his inner circle?  I assume he views at least some of them as friends?   In normal times that wouldn't be the case, but being a friend of Donald Trump seemed to be one of the main criteria for many of these appointments.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/oct/09/donald-trump-florida-rally-saturday-covid-test

Loved the comment a couple of days ago that people were protecting Biden by organising a virtual debate.  I think he genuinely thinks that giving Coronavirus to Biden would be a good test for who is fittest to be President.

Donald Trump is essentially a mob boss - and the only quality he's really interested in anybody is personal loyalty to him (so that that person is not a threat to him). We've seen it plenty of times over the last few years - Trump says Person X is a really great guy, a good friend of mine, he'll do a tremendous job. Then that person says something which just mildly critical of Trump or even just something slightly short of Pence-level arselicking and it's all 'I never really liked him, he was terrible at his job, I barely even knew the guy.'
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