Can you call with a marginal hand in this situation?

[Alex Scott]

Okay, it's $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em on Full Tilt last night.

I am in the small blind with $1358 (I flopped trip queens against John Juanda to win the $358). There is a dead small and big blind in the pot. Sunk102, who is under the gun with $317, raises to $40. He's loose and aggressive, and PokerTracker tells me he has played 49% of the pots that I've seen. One player folds, ShelMD ($607 in chips) calls, another fold, Vonekr calls for $30 (he posted the dead BB), another fold, and its on me in the small blind with . Realising there is $135 in the pot and I'm getting nearly 4-1, I make a marginal, debatable call for $35. The big blind folds.

There is $170 in the pot and the flop comes  .

I check, sunk102 checks, and shelMD bets $40 (an extremely small bet given the size of the pot). I consider raising, but I don't want to get into a lot of trouble with the original preflop raiser still to act, so I just call the $40. sunk102 also calls.

There is $290 in the pot and the turn is the  . I check, sunk102 checks, and shelMD checks. This suggests to me that shelMD's bet was made with something pretty weak and they're frightened to bet again.

The river is the  . sunk102 goes all-in for $237. ShelMD thinks for a while and folds. Do you call or fold, and why?

[Ironside]

call

i think your against Jacks

[Ironside]

or maybe Tens

[WellChief]

I'm not sure if I'd call here, and I'm sure you know that playing marginal hands like this from the small blind can often get you into tough situation like this one.  I think you should have raised the flop bet of $40 to say $100 and if the original raiser flat calls or goes all in you know you're in trouble and have lost the minimum from the hand. 

It's difficult to say what he has here, I can't see 10's or J's going all in at the end here although its possible as weakness has been shown all round and QQ or 66 would almost certainly have bet the flop to see where they were.  It is the perfect flop to slow play AA on however so that's my shout. 

[bundle]

You have got yourself into a nasty situation here.

There is an argument for both. Everyone has acted fairly weak throughout this hand, so he could be on a steal at the end to pick it up. So I can understand if you called. But I fear this is what he wants you to think
He was the original raiser, so he could quite easily have AK or even KK here, and has been waiting for one of you guys to take the lead and get some chips in there, since you haven’t done this, the all in on the end should look like a steal and its his best chance to get more value from his hand. At no point have you tried to establish where you stand in this hand. If you like the odds here then it’s a call.

I would fold, and put it down to playing it wrong

[JungleCat03]

i would think they are very strong or very weak here.

so are they bluffing??

No one's shown much strength in the hand so could well be a steal move at the end.


There was no move to protect a hand on the turn. Maybe this is a clue? Maybe the hand was sooo strong it didnt need protecting. Or maybe they just didnt have a hand?

Pocket filling up on the river is posssible but unlikely. Pocket queens is the likeliest strong hand for me.

I think this is player dependent. Against a frequent bluffer/ aggressive player i would call. Against a very tight player i fold. Against an occasional bluffer i think you pick off a bluff often enough that it is ok to call. So i call.

[bundle]

i would think they are very strong or very weak here.

Thats the problem, he could well be raising pre flop with TT and has been scared of the K
OR he could have AK KK and was wanting for someone to try take the pot..We have no idea where we stand.

Is he stealing or trying to make it look like a steal, A bet on the turn would have given us more info to work with.

[TightEnd]

I would read him as being scared of the King, so hasn't bet on the turn

When you check to him on the end he can't put you on the king, the third player hasn't bet on the turn, so he takes a stab to win it with his pocket pair

Call.

[bundle]

well we know he called and won. I was Just saying it as i saw it..

[TightEnd]

do we? I didn't know or have I missed something somewhere?

[bundle]

No you havent missed anything..

[Alex Scott]

Cheers for the replies ladies and gents (I'm making no assumptions here).

I'm more than willing to admit that I played the hand a little scared. To be honest, I was. I don't have a full bankroll for $5/$10 yet - I just take shots at it occasionally. Consequently, I play a bit more tightly than is optimal in an effort to reduce my fluctuations (that sounds like a contradiction, since I called preflop with KJs, but its true!). In a $3/$6 game, I have no doubt that I would have bet or raised the flop.

Still, the key question isn't about how I played the hand before the river, its whether to call when he goes all-in.

There are a few key factors that I used to make my decision.

- Sunk102 has been involved in a lot of pots (nearly 50% of the hands he has played). Half of these he has been the preflop raiser (a stat I should've included in the original post, sorry). This suggests he may not have a very strong starting hand, even given that he is in early position.

- While he is usually very aggressive, he has decided to check and call the flop, and check the turn. I'm pretty sure he would've bet a king sooner than this, I'm also pretty sure he would've bet a hand like pocket aces. I'm not sure what he called the flop with, but this suggests weakness to me.

- Most people don't make big bets on the river with huge hands. Instead, they make a small bet that they think will be easy for their opponent to call. By going all-in, he makes me think he is weak and just wants to pick up the pot because we haven't shown any strength.

What do I think he has? Well, A-Q, K-rag, small suited connectors like 6-7s and underpairs like jacks and tens all flash through my head, but I'm wrong. I call, he shows A-J offsuit, and I win the pot.

well we know he called and won.

Oooh, I'm curious as to how you made this prediction, but obviously you're right. I wasn't trying to boast or anything (I don't think anybody would be impressed anyway). Did I give it away in my post somehow?

Thought this would make a change from the 'bad beat' stories and the hands where people don't know if they made the right decision, since this has a happy ending!

[JungleCat03]

Hehe. I also thought you called and won.

Mainly because i think it's more likely you post a hand with a known outcome and also it's a little more likely you post a hand with a favourable result.



Sherlock junglecat signing off......

[Alex Scott]

Mainly because i think it's more likely you post a hand with a known outcome and also it's a little more likely you post a hand with a favourable result.

I look forward to surprising you with hands where I knew I was beat, but called anyway and lost. I think everybody has a couple of those tucked away somewhere!

[JungleCat03]

Not me. I never call when I know I'm behind.



.... well only when I want to use the hand for information purposes.


.....or I think the pots jsut a bit too big to pass.


.....or I need to prove to myself that i got a bad beat..


.....or the day has a y in it.


Other than these rare exceptions, never.