Southwell The Fibresand Is Here 2016/2017

[horseplayer]

Hope I didn't miss anyone there I'm typing on a tablet at present so please allow the odd or more error.

Special thanks to someone who has already been very kind, won't embarass him on here but deep rooted thanks.

Re the bank I will start with a fictional bank of £2000. A 1pt stake will be 2.5% A 2pt stake will be 5%. Adjusted as we go.

The quality of the racing gets better the closer we get to the new year. There is a good sprint tomorrow at this stage bets if any will be in the first two heats good old class 6 mile handicaps

Will post tomorrow around 5-6pm and then again 10am approx Thursday.

Thanks all

[Karabiner]

All the very best of luck with this John.

Will be following with interest...hopefully.

[Steve Swift]

In, not sure what it is or how to participate but can smell something good from a mile off.  Love Blonde.

[4KSuited]

So sorry to read of your health travails, Horsey, but pleased that mending progress is being made. I'm "in with the in crowd" on this thread, and hoping to be making monthly transfers to your travel fund.

As a footnote, like others I've found Southwell hard to decipher in terms of translating form from other courses and ground. Delighted to discover that far better judges than me have found this tricky too. Delighted to have a chance to learn from a Southwell specialist.

Very best of luck, sir.

[rinswun]

Good luck Horsey. Hope you smash it!

[horseplayer]

The brain certainly does not work at the same speed it used to! Taken me 3 hours to do forecasts and notes for the two races im interested in tomorrow.

When doing these regularly you would be looking at 30 minutes per race max and that's for a race with less form and more digging required.

That has definitely made my mind up to stick for a couple of races max for now at least.

Back at 5/6pm with selections at this stage.

[horseplayer]

And after all that at this stage

No bets

Frustrating but there is very little which differs wildly  from my tissue at this stage could change by the morning of course.

Be back at 10/11 tomorrow

[DMorgan]

gl with the fibresand and all the best with your recovery

On the cost of taxis, have you tried contacting local private hire drivers that do airport runs etc? They might cut you a better deal for a regular journey. Depending on where you live, grinding the Uber signup bonuses can be pretty effective too. The first person in my group of friends to use uber referred everyone else and ended up getting a good £200 worth of free trips.

[horseplayer]

gl with the fibresand and all the best with your recovery

On the cost of taxis, have you tried contacting local private hire drivers that do airport runs etc? They might cut you a better deal for a regular journey. Depending on where you live, grinding the Uber signup bonuses can be pretty effective too. The first person in my group of friends to use uber referred everyone else and ended up getting a good £200 worth of free trips.

Thanks for the post Dan

I am already getting a good price (or the best I can) tbf to the hospital they are offering me ambulance transport once a week, however this turns a 30-45 minute journey each way into a 2 hour one. I am in no rush but getting there knackered defeats the point of the rehab.

Hopefully if things keep improving it will be an option in the new year

Thanks again

[Simon Galloway]

For those that can get £25 on with Patrick online, southwell is free bet if 2ND to sp fav.

[horseplayer]

Thanks for that Simon

I won't always post my tissue but for today I will. Am keeping records of all tissues to see how accurate I am or am not.

The 12.55 has no interest can't quite get my head around it.

I did this tissue for the 12.25 at 2pm yesterday. I appreciate most people will do this anyway but for those who don't, this is a "blind" tissue I had not looked at any forecast prices before putting together.

MY TISSUE AT 2PM 09/11/2016

niqnaqpadiwaaq 4/1, cascading stars 5/1, barista 6/1, princess peaches 15/2,
limerick lord 8/1, bunker hill lass 10/1, east coast lady 16/1, albert boy 16/1,
davey boy 20/1, general tufto 33/1, or so 40/1

Fairly accurate at this stage a lot can change by the race of course. I would expect to get these sort of heats at least close, the horses are all exposed most have ran here before and there are no trainer changes of note.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/southwell/12:25/winner

A lot at the top of the market are similar types. Here are some of my notes on the runners from yesterday again I won't post this every race will get a bit much to read.

Bolded comments are added today to reflect the price as of now.

niqnaqpadiwaaq  = aqlaam small sire sample at southwell doing ok (3-15) horse looks ideal type (keen going likes to lead one paced late)

The horse is 1-17 for career (a recurring theme) doesn't appear to do masses wrong in its races, at current price happy to let it win.

cascading stars = tagula average sire here, held up last time never ran well when held up best recent runs when close up running style suggests suits.trainer in decent form ( 3 winners in last week after a quiet spell)

The horse is 1-28 with 6 seconds hardly compelling. I may have been in a bit short at but have to suggest a small bet at 10/1 win only. Horse looks the type to take tothis test very one paced best when raced from the front. Can easily forgive Lingfield last time dropped out back not quick enough to run that track well anymore it seems.

davey boy  = won a maiden here at 50/1 on that win a mark of 63 looks fine (2nd and 3rd in that maiden solid 70 animals now) however been beaten 170 lengths last three starts.

This is the one horse in the race that could win or finish tailed. I may have been over at 20s but I couldn't touch it at 8/9-1 now after being beaten so far last three starts even though elsewhere. I presume the gamble is on the maiden win which makes the horse well handicapped now.




SUGGESTED BET 1PT WIN CASCADING STARS 10/1 (3 FIRMS AS OF 9.50AM)

[rinswun]

Lovely write up Horsey. Generally speaking, how far above your tissue would you want a horse priced before you make it a bet?

[Simon Galloway]

Also paddy in shop are 1/4 1-4 the 1:55. That must throw up some value darts.

With BOG until 1pm, where's my spider....

[arbboy]

Lovely write up Horsey. Generally speaking, how far above your tissue would you want a horse priced before you make it a bet?

Agree with this.  One question.  Why do you price your tissue to 105% and not 100%?

[horseplayer]

Also paddy in shop are 1/4 1-4 the 1:55. That must throw up some value darts.

With BOG until 1pm, where's my spider....

That is a hell of an offer. I added Elusivity to my notebook for Southwell after the Nottingham run last time where he showed plenty of his old speed. This grade might be to hot but I will be watching for further down the winter.