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Author Topic: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin)  (Read 22386 times)
lucky_scrote
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« Reply #210 on: September 13, 2017, 04:49:42 PM »

The thread has been killed because there isn't anyone who can come up with a constructive reason for holding cryptos as part of a balanced portfolio, nothing else.

You are quite annoying. I enjoyed posting in this thread but I got frustrated with your approach to posting in this thread so I just started replying to other people instead. I repeated myself and answered questions you kept asking. That did the job in slowing the thread down.

Warren Buffet refused to invest in technology because he didn't invest in it, does that mean we shouldn't invest in technology, or that technology investment is a bubble? Anyway, didn't he once surprise everyone and invest billions into IBM a decade or so ago?

FWIW I am mostly interested in the technology and could care less if the prices revert dramatically right now because in the long term I know it's a great investment. The huge price drops are great for the types of people that invest their money in this technology. The quality of posts on reddit deter dramatically when in a bull market proving there are a lot of immature investors out there. I also remember reading back in 2011 when someone tried to implement bitcoin into several markets and the creator of bitcoin (goes by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto) pleaded not to because it would destroy bitcoin. It's still in early stages and there are going to be many ups and downs. It's impossible for bitcoin to go completely mainstream and be a huge part of our society until there are dramatic changes. One thing is for sure, the technology is out there and the implementation will one day be successful. Innovation is not disruption.
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« Reply #211 on: September 13, 2017, 04:54:16 PM »

Dimon calls it a bubble every few years like the traditional forms of media. Here he is in 2015.
2015
http://fortune.com/2015/11/04/jamie-dimon-virtual-currency-bitcoin/
2013
http://m1.marketwatch.com/articles/BL-MWTELLB-11892?mobile=y%2Cy&tesla=y&tesla=y
2014 link.
https://www.google.hu/amp/s/www.rt.com/document/100000000000001000139100/amp/139100-chase-ceo-bitcoin-terrible-downfall-100
Failed patents
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-15/jpmorgans-bitcoin-alternative-patent-rejected-175-times?page=1

He literally waited until cryptos had some of the worst news this year, with more reports of China clamping down on btc/cny trading as well as a return of funds raised through icos. Probably the best point in btc to go short with an Otc app in China confirming it was indefinitely suspending training.

You really killed this thread ace. Your warnings are appreciated but it's just regurgitated information with little value that shows a complete disconnect from the space. Of course it is mostly young males. Same as most risky endeavours and gambling in general. I would also imagine shareholders are typically male? What's your point. So was online poker? Your warnings would come across as a lot more genuine if it wasn't for the subtle negging in every post. The fact that most of your analysis comes from saying something is up 8x in a year will probably come day is truly enlightening.

It's impossible for you to correctly evaluate cryptocurrency and it bothers me you say you tried. Traditional financial planning wouldn't involve investing in newly developing asset classes like this with such asymmetric returns. Of course if you don't see the need for cryptocurrency it's a bubble.

P.s next support 3600 and after is 2700. Could be a painful week.

TBH I couldn't give a hoot what Dimon thinks, he is a banker and we all know what that rhymes with. But the fact that a few words from him caused the value of the BTC to fall as it has done over the last 24 hours says a lot.

So Warren Buffet has also dismissed Cryptos, are you going to pull every link you can find about something that he has said to dismiss his point of view as well?

Crypto currencies are not currencies in the traditional sense, they hold no intrinsic value as a medium of exchange. You say it's impossible for me to evaluate cryptos (in terms of who is behind each one and the underlying value that they create), yes you are right but that goes for every other human being on this planet. Anyone who says otherwise is nothing short of deluded.

Are you a chartist by any chance, because where you get a support level of $3,600 is beyond me. Amazing how people don't like hearing what they want to hear. The thread has been killed because there isn't anyone who can come up with a constructive reason for holding cryptos as part of a balanced portfolio, nothing else.






Sorry I must not have made my point effectively.

Here is why bitcoin went down.

https://www.google.hu/search?q=china+bans+bitcoin+2017&oq=china+&aqs=chrome.2.69i59j69i61j69i59l2j69i60l2.3294j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Dimon calls bitcoin a bubble, again, after this news. My point was he is absolutely irrelevant. He possibly had a minor effect on the market at best, but I would be very skeptical. The recent orice contraction has largely come from Western exchanges moving towards the Chinese price, as Chinese markets contracted earlier on the banning news, but Western exchanges held.

You seem to believe every person involved in cryptocurrency is wildly bullish and blindly firing off which is incorrect. Often, people do get excited, and poker players are a prime candidate to be a bit blase with their capital. Overall, your message of caution should be extremely valid in this market, but it comes with such overbearing tones that it becomes ignored or makes the recipient angry and therefore unable to listen. Similar to how my posts are perceived by you. I'm stating to think you didn't  read my post properly, as I stated about China beforehand, and I don't believe you think Dimon is a bigger influence then that.

I do not need to post links to Buffet calling cryptocurrency a bubble because I value his opinion, and I don't think he regularly calls it a bubble. You are giving credit to someone who repeats the same thing every year. Furthermore, as I posted earlier in the thread re; Goldman Sachs reporting on bitcoin, they seem to believe in cryptocurrency, as I believe the attempted JP Morgan patents show they do too.

Not a chartist but I do look at other people charts. It was more of a throwaway comment to show I do expect bitcoin to go down sometimes and because I thought people might be interested. A friend actually told me today he believes the previous resistance around 3000 is more likely to be the support level than either of the two numbers, but its also a matter of time frame.

Yes you are spot on about China, that's come up on my radar over the last hour. My bad, yes I was wrong. To a degree, Dimon is good fake news for the media to jump on, and we should take more objective opinions when assessing the validity of crypto currencies.

Let's take this back a level, and I have said this before in 1997-99 exactly the same thing happened. I made money but also got burnt. I would like to think that a lesson was learnt. This has so many similarities as what happened during the tech boom.Just like now,the lack of transparency was the main issue, but people just ploughed their money in because it was then the get rich quick, thing to do.

I guess I shouldn't be bothered if people want to speculate on these instruments, but I would rather people heard things from the other side. Would I buy cryptos? Yes but not until a serious correction, and I am talking about a minimum of 75-80% downside and even then I would only buy BTC and possibly ETH on a drip feed basis.  Even then it would be a pure punt with a very small % of my portfolio.


 







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« Reply #212 on: September 13, 2017, 05:04:37 PM »

Buffett didn't invest in tech because it was outside his "circle of competence". Here is his quote on Crypto:

Quote
Stay away. Bitcoin is a mirage. It's a method of transmitting money. It's a very effective way of transmitting money and you can do it anonymously and all that. A check is a way of transmitting money, too. Are checks worth a whole lot of money just because they can transmit money? Are money orders? You can transmit money by money orders. People do it. I hope bitcoin becomes a better way of doing it, but you can replicate it a bunch of different ways and it will be. The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke in my view.

Aside, I can understand the case for a fundamental backing of crypto (even if I strongly disagree with it). What I can't get on board with is people using technical analysis indicators as reasons to buy or sell. I agree there is a broader market sentiment aspect in current prices, but just because someone has a big order at some price point lower than current price (or sell order at higher price) or because the price has tended to not go below/above some price in the last year/month/day/hour/minute does not make it a support or resistance point nor present a valid discussion for investing IMO. Everyone's a genius in a bull market.

Regarding illegal exchange of goods - admittedly I don't really know anything about BTC volumes - it was just a hunch. There was no option to buy my lunch with BTC today. In fact no places I regularly buy from accept any form of crypto. Due to the nature of typical transactions placed, cryptos are highly susceptible to regulation.

I looked into the possibility of accepting BTC orders for a website that convert straight to £. The cost (1%) was similar to accepting USD that convert straight to £. Uninspiring for someone that doesn't want to hold BTC (or USD).
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acegooner
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« Reply #213 on: September 13, 2017, 05:08:44 PM »

The thread has been killed because there isn't anyone who can come up with a constructive reason for holding cryptos as part of a balanced portfolio, nothing else.

You are quite annoying. I enjoyed posting in this thread but I got frustrated with your approach to posting in this thread so I just started replying to other people instead. I repeated myself and answered questions you kept asking. That did the job in slowing the thread down.

Warren Buffet refused to invest in technology because he didn't invest in it, does that mean we shouldn't invest in technology, or that technology investment is a bubble? Anyway, didn't he once surprise everyone and invest billions into IBM a decade or so ago?

FWIW I am mostly interested in the technology and could care less if the prices revert dramatically right now because in the long term I know it's a great investment. The huge price drops are great for the types of people that invest their money in this technology. The quality of posts on reddit deter dramatically when in a bull market proving there are a lot of immature investors out there. I also remember reading back in 2011 when someone tried to implement bitcoin into several markets and the creator of bitcoin (goes by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto) pleaded not to because it would destroy bitcoin. It's still in early stages and there are going to be many ups and downs. It's impossible for bitcoin to go completely mainstream and be a huge part of our society until there are dramatic changes. One thing is for sure, the technology is out there and the implementation will one day be successful. Innovation is not disruption.

Buffet invests in companies that will make real money either now or sometime in the future. He currently holds IBM and Apple.

His problem with technology in the 90s was that he did not understand what each of these relatively young companies actually did, and what their path to profitability was. Funnily enough most of these companies don't exist anymore. As I mentioned in my other post the similarities are striking.

Now if Warren Buffet doesn't understand these things (ie cryptos) what chance have the rest of us?

You believe in an investment/currency that is at the mercy of the Chinese blocking ICOs or any other trading activity in Cryptos. You are at the mercy of an army of North Koreans who are religiously hacking into wallets and stealing the value. The lack of regulation is something clearly that doesn't bother you or the impact it will have on the future value of any of these instruments. The list is endless.  Too many unknowns in my opinion for anyone to say they are a good long term investment, or anything but a punt.

You are annoyed, because you don't like what you are saying is being scrutinised.

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nirvana
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« Reply #214 on: September 13, 2017, 06:53:47 PM »

The thread has been killed because there isn't anyone who can come up with a constructive reason for holding cryptos as part of a balanced portfolio, nothing else.

You are quite annoying. I enjoyed posting in this thread but I got frustrated with your approach to posting in this thread so I just started replying to other people instead. I repeated myself and answered questions you kept asking. That did the job in slowing the thread down.

Warren Buffet refused to invest in technology because he didn't invest in it, does that mean we shouldn't invest in technology, or that technology investment is a bubble? Anyway, didn't he once surprise everyone and invest billions into IBM a decade or so ago?

FWIW I am mostly interested in the technology and could care less if the prices revert dramatically right now because in the long term I know it's a great investment. The huge price drops are great for the types of people that invest their money in this technology. The quality of posts on reddit deter dramatically when in a bull market proving there are a lot of immature investors out there. I also remember reading back in 2011 when someone tried to implement bitcoin into several markets and the creator of bitcoin (goes by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto) pleaded not to because it would destroy bitcoin. It's still in early stages and there are going to be many ups and downs. It's impossible for bitcoin to go completely mainstream and be a huge part of our society until there are dramatic changes. One thing is for sure, the technology is out there and the implementation will one day be successful. Innovation is not disruption.

I think it's fine to not be worried about short term drops in investment value, and in any case, it's an entirely personal choice about where we choose to invest/trade/gamble and we all have different attitudes to risk. You should really consider the bolded bit though I think. It's not possible to 'know' anything in such an immature market. It's not that easy to know the direction of lots of established investments and markets - a quick review of the FTSE 100 20 years ago and today tells us this.

Anyhoo, not mentioning it in a finger wagging old guy sense but it's quite dangerous to 'know the long term is great' because it exponentially increases the possibility that you do nothing if things did go badly. If the amount is insignificant in terms of the original investment or lost profit taking opportunity then fine. But if it's in anyway significant then it's worth having a plan B I think
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« Reply #215 on: September 13, 2017, 06:57:28 PM »

As someone with no fiscal interest at all, think this thread has been far from spoiled.

I find the fact that there are such widely opposing views very interesting, and the fact that it hasn't descended into 2p2 style abuse, is a credit to the people that have contributed.

Great fun to follow, much like the politics/donald threads, and they save me having to read about concrete and train stations Wink
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tikay
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« Reply #216 on: September 13, 2017, 07:00:23 PM »

As someone with no fiscal interest at all, think this thread has been far from spoiled.

I find the fact that there are such widely opposing views very interesting, and the fact that it hasn't descended into 2p2 style abuse, is a credit to the people that have contributed.

Great fun to follow, much like the politics/donald threads, and they save me having to read about concrete and train stations Wink

Agree 100%.

EDIT - Make that 80%. The last sentence is shite. Also, as Warren Buffet has been mentioned a few times, he likes trains - he owns a monster train set.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BNSF_Railway

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« Reply #217 on: September 13, 2017, 07:08:35 PM »

As someone with no fiscal interest at all, think this thread has been far from spoiled.

I find the fact that there are such widely opposing views very interesting, and the fact that it hasn't descended into 2p2 style abuse, is a credit to the people that have contributed.

Great fun to follow, much like the politics/donald threads, and they save me having to read about concrete and train stations Wink

Agree 100%.

EDIT - Make that 80%. The last sentence is shite. Also, as Warren Buffet has been mentioned a few times, he likes trains - he owns a monster train set.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BNSF_Railway


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« Reply #218 on: September 15, 2017, 10:43:10 AM »

Quite interesting the impact the Chinese are having on cryptos at the moment, as opposed to the concurrent tensions in the Korean peninsula which seem to have a negative impact on global stock markets, and a positive impact on the price of gold.

To me, anyone who holds cryptos should be far more worried about what chummy has planned with his nuclear arsenal, over anything else that revolves around the crypto currency space.
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lucky_scrote
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« Reply #219 on: September 15, 2017, 02:00:45 PM »

It is definitely interesting and gives an outlook on the maturity of the market and investors. China represented 13% of the crypto market but we have seen a 40% drop in the entire market cap. With the extreme bullish market we have been experiencing and all new investors wanting to make a quick buck it's inevitable something like this was going to happen. What I can't believe is something as small as this has caused it, it really isn't THAT bad that China are stopping their exchanges on the 30th Sept (not ban, just put on hold).

I guess if news like this has caused such a dramatic drop then there must be quite a lot of "new" money in crypto. Impossible to say what is going to happen in the next 2-4 weeks, definitely interesting times. I find it very exciting because I don't really see my "investment" going up or down because I plan on holding for the long term but it is definitely funny seeing absolute panic in the cryptospace.
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« Reply #220 on: September 16, 2017, 08:37:20 AM »

Bitcoin value plummets after China orders trading in currency to cease

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/15/bitcoin-value-plummets-after-china-orders-trading-in-currency-to-cease?CMP=twt_gu
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« Reply #221 on: September 16, 2017, 11:31:14 AM »

amazingly the sense of entitlement in crypto might actually be more than that of poker players!
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« Reply #222 on: September 16, 2017, 11:46:37 AM »

It is definitely interesting and gives an outlook on the maturity of the market and investors. China represented 13% of the crypto market but we have seen a 40% drop in the entire market cap. With the extreme bullish market we have been experiencing and all new investors wanting to make a quick buck it's inevitable something like this was going to happen. What I can't believe is something as small as this has caused it, it really isn't THAT bad that China are stopping their exchanges on the 30th Sept (not ban, just put on hold).

I guess if news like this has caused such a dramatic drop then there must be quite a lot of "new" money in crypto. Impossible to say what is going to happen in the next 2-4 weeks, definitely interesting times. I find it very exciting because I don't really see my "investment" going up or down because I plan on holding for the long term but it is definitely funny seeing absolute panic in the cryptospace.

13% seems a pretty low figure and doesn't China have a much bigger proportion of exchanges and miners? 

Up 500% on this time last year doesn't feel very apocalyptic yet.  If only all my investments did so badly.

Guess we'll see how it plays out.

   
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« Reply #223 on: September 16, 2017, 11:56:08 AM »

It is definitely interesting and gives an outlook on the maturity of the market and investors. China represented 13% of the crypto market but we have seen a 40% drop in the entire market cap. With the extreme bullish market we have been experiencing and all new investors wanting to make a quick buck it's inevitable something like this was going to happen. What I can't believe is something as small as this has caused it, it really isn't THAT bad that China are stopping their exchanges on the 30th Sept (not ban, just put on hold).

I guess if news like this has caused such a dramatic drop then there must be quite a lot of "new" money in crypto. Impossible to say what is going to happen in the next 2-4 weeks, definitely interesting times. I find it very exciting because I don't really see my "investment" going up or down because I plan on holding for the long term but it is definitely funny seeing absolute panic in the cryptospace.

13% seems a pretty low figure and doesn't China have a much bigger proportion of exchanges and miners? 

Up 500% on this time last year doesn't feel very apocalyptic yet.  If only all my investments did so badly.

Guess we'll see how it plays out.

   

China was 13% of trading volume. I believe Chinese can still trade but they can't use Chinese trading sites meaning they cannot use CNY. The big players will still be involved as they will find another way I'm sure. As for mining I don't know what difference it is going to make financially or whether the Chinese are still allowed to mine.

Market cap is now up 25% up in the last 24 hours so that crisis yesterday is just a spike on the graph now. I can only assume that there are a lot of overly invested new investors that act like sheep and panic. Is this a sign that if crypto markets are to react like other markets historically that we are in a bubble?
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« Reply #224 on: September 16, 2017, 02:18:08 PM »

Just the fact that the Chinese Government have the power to stop it has to be a huge negative to a means of exchange that's supposedly bypassing central banks and Governments?

I'm sure I've hugely oversimplified that but from my reading in this thread and the few other things I've read the freedom from outside interference was supposed to be one of the biggest benefits.
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