G-T-Ohhhh for f**k sake

[OutKicked]

So it's late night 1-3 at the Vic and we're down to 4-5 handed as everyone is trying to get the last few hours in for the cash race.
Our stack is around 1.15k and the villain in the hand covers us with around 1.8k. The villain is highly competent, plays for a living and has good awareness of game flow dynamics.
His perception of me is likely on the tighter side but the fact the table is down to 4 handed makes it more interesting as everyone is playing position much more aggressively.


Pre-Flop - 4 handed:

Dealt to Hero  

Villain opens UTG to 10, I three bet to 40.
The blinds fold and the Villain completes after a small dwell.

Flop - Pot 84
 

Villain checks, I bet 35, Villain calls

Turn - Pot 154
  ..  

Villain Checks, Hero bets 80, Villain Check Raises to 240.
Hero Calls


River - Pot 634

  ..   ..  

Villain bets 350
Hero (750-800 behind) ... ?


I've ran this spot by quite a few people and would be intrigued to hear people's thoughts in the blonde community seeing as the hand histories thread is dieing a slow death.
After flatting the check raise on the turn I'm entirely at the top of my range and the Villain would be well aware of this point.

[youthnkzR]

Flop too big. Assuming your betting range on AA2r you want to size down. Anywhere between 25-33% is good.

Turn x/r is weird, SPR is set up perfectly for him to jam over a river bet with value hands he wants to put the lot in with. Struggling to think of bluffs which would take this line but, not exactly like its AA109x and he can x/r / jam river with his 109 boat blockers as a bluff.

On river when blockers dont factor (like i said its not like hes peeled 82 pre and x/r turn with boat blockers...etc), I'd start calling the top of my none all in range (88 / A2 / A8 - not sure which if any of these your 3bing... If AK is top your gonna have to call it) and take it from there based on what I think the guy is capable of.. You've gotta be right like 1 in 4 times although your prob get shown 22 and 88 loads.

FWIW theres also a late night spaz factor on his part, also you probably need to be true to yourself what opinion he has of you.

[SuuPRlim]

What am I missing about the hand, is this not a really straightforward call?

[TightEnd]

What am I missing about the hand, is this not a really straightforward call?

opponent knows hero must be strong (turn action), so the range here is massively 22 or 88?

ie both at top of range?

[pleno1]

All in

[action man]

Make a very exploitable fold on the turn

[PathFinder]

Rep AQ and go all in. Seems strange that villain doesn't shove river right? Plus he perceives you as tight

[pleno1]

He has 88 and is shit scared

[SuuPRlim]

He would really fold 88 calling 450 to win 2250~?

He might be hating it but at 4am in a 4handed live game I don't see much folding going down.

Is it impossible he has AJ?

[OutKicked]

Much appreciated for the responses

All in

I completely agree with this, but as SuuPRlim has pointed out I feel it only works if we were much deeper.
I ran it by Charlie Carrel and his response was very similar, "Jam if we think he's willing to fold 88... otherwise cry", hence why I think it's very plausible to just fold in this spot vs his perceived range on the river.

I decided to tank, sigh call at the top of our range and get shown but in hindsight of how the hand plays and especially stack sizes I do genuinely think it's a fold with all things considered.

[pleno1]

Not sure exactly why we think we're at the top of our range.
.

We get to the river with AA, aq, a8s, a2s, 88, ak and aj

We may even check turn on occasion with aj. A bunch of our ax will fold to turn x/r or just check turn.

don't think we have to be overly concerned about folding this part of our range.

[OutKicked]

Not sure exactly why we think we're at the top of our range.
.

We get to the river with AA, aq, a8s, a2s, 88, ak and aj

We may even check turn on occasion with aj. A bunch of our ax will fold to turn x/r or just check turn.

don't think we have to be overly concerned about folding this part of our range.

All very true and short handed I'd be three betting most hands mentioned in position, possibly not A2s but that's just me.
Based on stack sizes on the river and feeling that our opponent wouldn't fold to the additional 4-450 do you feel we have to call AK though or fold?

[pleno1]

fold, he never ever has AJ and theres no natural bluffs, he may choose to bluff Ax, which would be pretty gangster, but unlikely.

[SuuPRlim]

thats a god awful turn check raise then

[arbboy]

He folds 22 if you shove the river surely every time?  Maybe you get him to fold 88 as well although unlikely.  How can he call the river given the stack sizes if you shove the river with 22 given how tight you think he considers you? I think i am always shoving the river for the extra £400 into such a big pot just to have the bluff edge running for me when he folds 22 and/or 88.  You should always have aq in his mind.   Waiting for the 'stick to darts arb'!