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Poker Hand Analysis
What to do here?
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Topic: What to do here? (Read 2384 times)
ACE2M
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What to do here?
«
on:
February 06, 2006, 03:23:39 PM »
6 left with 9k to the winner, you are 2nd in chips with 190k and in the BB with QJ.
UTG, 130k, tight player so far on the FT raises 3 x bb to 36,000.
All fold to me and i call.
Flop comes 9,10,3 no flush draws for me.
What to do.......
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TightEnd
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #1 on:
February 06, 2006, 03:28:44 PM »
Check raise him all in
brought to you courtesy of "advice I would give but hate to follow myself"
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ACE2M
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #2 on:
February 06, 2006, 03:36:49 PM »
I have him on AK,AQ or a pair 88 or better.
Of which he can only fold 3 in most cases i would think.
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WellChief
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #3 on:
February 06, 2006, 03:47:44 PM »
You should have let this go preflop,you said yourself he was a tight player raising UTG, but anyway. There's 78,000 in the pot, so I don't think a checkraise all in is a very good idea as your opponent may pot commit himself if you check to him (he'd only have 94K in his stack after the preflop raise). Betting out 50-60K is better as your opponent knows you are calling if he goes all in, so will need to have connected with the flop in some way to do so. Playing hands like this out of position gets you into messes like this.
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TightEnd
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #4 on:
February 06, 2006, 03:49:08 PM »
I know, I was going for the cheap laugh....
I think I might bet out hoping to win it there and then via a "stop and go", and if called prepare to check fold, or if raised look at my odds...
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thetank
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #5 on:
February 06, 2006, 03:53:49 PM »
I bet out for 80k.
I like the check raise all-in on a big draw usually, however here I don't think it's so good as any real bet from the raiser will commit him. A much smaller chance that he can bet and then fold makes this a less profitable play.
There's 78k in the pot and he has 94k left.
I think the pot is too big to get fancy, if you want it, bet it.
If you're called, unless he's got a set, you're not too big a dog.
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ACE2M
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #6 on:
February 06, 2006, 04:18:59 PM »
I reckon i should have folded based on the opponents table image, but as a bit of new strategy lately i have been calling a set range of marginal hands in the bb to 3xbb raises, if i hit i get paid usually as it seems that everyone online these days religously make continuation bets. I do this regardless of the table image of the oppo and of course if my stack allows me to.
I think i will modify it a little to incorporate the perception of my oppo's style and the current state of the tourney.
I pushed a sizeable bet, he moved all in, i was commited, he had AA and i didn't hit. Never recovered.
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TightEnd
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Re: What to do here?
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Reply #7 on:
February 06, 2006, 05:11:18 PM »
You weren't committed at all were you?
Bet 50k say into a 78k pot, and if you are raised all in you can easily fold with 140k behind.
Why are you pot committed here? I know you are on basic odds, 80k more to win a pot of 300k+ but you have plenty of chips left, 13x bb or so
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thetank
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #8 on:
February 06, 2006, 05:20:07 PM »
The other chappy has 94k tightend.
If ACE2M bets 50k and faces an all-in raise then that's 44k to him to win the 222k in the pot.
5 to 1 on his straight draw, with possible other outs aswell. I can't lay that down.
That's why I make the bet 80k, it tells the other guy that there's no possibility of you laying down to a raise. If he has pocket 8's say, he's less likely to come over the top.
«
Last Edit: February 06, 2006, 05:23:57 PM by thetank
»
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ACE2M
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Re: What to do here?
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Reply #9 on:
February 06, 2006, 05:22:46 PM »
I think i bet 60k.
When it is only another 36k ish i have to call into a 240k pot when i am 35% to win the hand.
I consider this commited and an automatic call.
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TightEnd
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #10 on:
February 06, 2006, 05:24:02 PM »
I know the maths dictates the call, even though my skim reading worked it out wrong, but I would have thought in this tournament situation you bet out knowing you have a chance to win it there and then. If you are raised all in you know you have enough chips left to pass knowing you have got play.
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My eyes are open wide
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thetank
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #11 on:
February 06, 2006, 05:26:39 PM »
I wonder what Mr. Ree would have done?
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ACE2M
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #12 on:
February 06, 2006, 05:30:46 PM »
Quote from: thetank on February 06, 2006, 05:26:39 PM
I wonder what Mr. Ree would have done?
He would have scientifiacally calculated that is was certain the opponent had aces and the outs would not hit and therefore would have folded pre flop, and anyone not doing this is obviously an imbecile.
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jezza777
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #13 on:
February 07, 2006, 10:57:57 AM »
While the pot odds strongly argue for a call here I do not think that you are commited to the pot. Given the image of the player and the position of his raise I would fold qj from the BB in the first instance. Once you have made the call and hit the up and down draw then betting out becomes necessary to try to win the pot . Even tho you are recieveing 5-1 odds for the call I think you can fold here. You have enough chips left to use them for a better situation later on .
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temp0r
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Re: What to do here?
«
Reply #14 on:
February 07, 2006, 04:53:00 PM »
at that stage of a tournament. you can't call with QJ pre-flop. if he was tight. get rid of it. it's not called a trouble hand for nothing y'know.
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