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Author Topic: Staking in 2018  (Read 6162 times)
EvilPie
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« Reply #45 on: November 14, 2018, 12:18:35 PM »

If they made it clear up front that it was £5M guaranteed but with a zero chance of an overlay then it would be fine.

What they actually do is advertise the 'incredible value' and 'huge potential overlays' all over facebook to get people in to the tournament knowing full well that there won't be one.

All they need to do is be transparent and let people know that it's a £5M guarantee but they'll be putting their own players in on some kind of split to ensure that it actually gets the runners necessary to make the guarantee.

It's all about transparency. Let people know what they're getting in to up front and nobody can ever complain. Any kind of sneakiness in there will always upset a few folk.



Of course some overlays hit mate but many, many don’t. Online on daily basis you will find 5+ tournaments with overlay, last week in Canada I think there was 1m overlay, I would say that there has probably been 100,000% more overlays in party tournaments than any other brand, it’s not really up for debate there are many tournaments in a regular basis that have big added value from overlay. 

Sorry I was mainly referring to the specific £5M guarantee tournament and also the live tournaments I regularly see promoted on facebook which are generally the DTD ones.

I wasn't really talking about online as I don't see the info for those tournaments so don't have any knowledge of what goes on. I did read the 2p2 thread though and saw the following post which really paints a bad picture all being within 2% of the exact number of runners required to hit the guarantee:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally Posted by Mystic View Post
There is definitely something odd going on with respect to field sizes.

$55 $10k - 198 runners
$109 $50k - 497 runners
$55 $25k - 494 runners
$530 $100k - 196 runners
$530 $40k - 80 runners
$109 $40k - 399 runners
$215 $100k - 494 runners

And looking at yesterday's fields it is a similar story
This is not normal at all, never used to happen. What's the deal?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This person may have been cherry picking of course but I read it as though this was the tournaments from one specific day. When I used to play on stars it was never like this, pretty much every tournament hit the guarantee but there was never a noticeable pattern of them being this close.

Anyone with a suspicious mind might well think there was a pool of players just sat there waiting with their tournament dollars to buy in at the last minute if they were needed to make up the numbers. There might even be someone instructing these players which tournaments to sign up for? The posts from ex BRS players seem to suggest that this was the case.

I'd like to take the unders on 100000% if I may please although we'll have to specify over how much time. Are we including the penny rolls and $1.10 tournaments here? I'll admit that they overlay quite frequently so would probably skew thing in your favour.




Numbers being close to guarantees are because they get pushed and pushed and pushed. The same person forgot to mention the $20k, $10k, $30knoverlays In heaps of tournaments this week. I’m sorry but it’s #fakenews Wink

Definitely not #fakenews but undoubtedly #cherrypickednews

In his defence his list was from about a month ago when all of these accusations first came about so wouldn't include anything from this week anyway.

Are the huge overlays you've listed possibly because BRS have disbanded or were they always like this anyway?

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pleno1
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« Reply #46 on: November 14, 2018, 02:54:04 PM »

They’ve always been like this. Not only is there millions and millions given out in leaderboards, but there’s also very handsome overlays on an almost daily basis. That’s why the regs play more there now because they know he site gambles with them. On other sites the guarantees are always smashed usually around 75% more than the guarantee thus not gambling with the players at all and of course not hitting close to the potential they could do. If you are recreational player you may only play 109$ if it’s 50k+ because 30k isn’t attractive, instead the 30k hits 50k but people won’t buy into it once it’s shallow stacks.

The reason the numbers are close to the guaranteed amounts is because party are dynamic and can estimate what the field numbers look like and if they are slightly missing then regs will jump in for last minute overlay hunting. It’s very normal.
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« Reply #47 on: November 14, 2018, 02:58:08 PM »

I actually am not that fussed by this and maybe I should be.

They havnt seen my hole cards or anything, they just are staked into the games and instead of a random backer getting it the company does. Ive gone deep and even won some of the non live party events and Im pretty happy that the guarentees are artifically inflated!

How can you not be concerned by effectively having a team of players all allegedly under the instruction to play as a team?

What do you mean as a team? They are playing individually right? They aren’t showing each other their cards and if they are then it doesn’t have anything about being in a stable or whatever. There has been cheats, there are cheats and there will be cheats in the future. Just because somebody is staked doesn’t mean they are cheats. When Cos and the guys were staked by Blatchly you guys didn’t think they would cheat together right? It’s the same thing here.

I was referring to the posts on 2+2 from BRS players saying they were berated and intimidated by Paul Jackson if they knocked each other out of tournaments and that they received messages if they were on the same table as another BRS player around the bubble.


Yh this never happened.
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Pokerpops
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« Reply #48 on: November 14, 2018, 04:13:24 PM »

They’ve always been like this. Not only is there millions and millions given out in leaderboards, but there’s also very handsome overlays on an almost daily basis. That’s why the regs play more there now because they know he site gambles with them. On other sites the guarantees are always smashed usually around 75% more than the guarantee thus not gambling with the players at all and of course not hitting close to the potential they could do. If you are recreational player you may only play 109$ if it’s 50k+ because 30k isn’t attractive, instead the 30k hits 50k but people won’t buy into it once it’s shallow stacks.

The reason the numbers are close to the guaranteed amounts is because party are dynamic and can estimate what the field numbers look like and if they are slightly missing then regs will jump in for last minute overlay hunting. It’s very normal.

I’m curious, at what point does a reg decide that the overlay isn’t going to be juicy?
70% of the required field?
80%?
How do they make the decision given that there is a finite time for entering?

It seems counter-intuitive to suggest that tournaments being 95%+ get filled by overlay hunting regs.
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pleno1
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« Reply #49 on: November 14, 2018, 04:21:29 PM »

It depends on the reg, his bankroll and his roi.

Why would that be counter intuitive. It seems very intuitive to me.
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« Reply #50 on: November 14, 2018, 04:43:40 PM »

It depends on the reg, his bankroll and his roi.

Why would that be counter intuitive. It seems very intuitive to me.

Because to me, the extra value that the overlay represents, the value that the regs are supposedly chasing, diminishes with each additional entrant and the potential for the use of their ‘edge’ reduces as their SS represents fewer BB/chip value.

Someone posted on 2p2 to say they were flying out to the CPP because they forecast <1500 runners and that implied an additional amount of value in the tournament that would equate very closely to his cost of getting there. For him, if there is a sudden rush of entries/re-entries to take the game close to it’s guarantee he has lost his reason for going.
Online there isn’t the same expense, but there must be a stage at which an online reg says “nope, not worth it. Not enough incentive to be Mr 99% in this and be starting my game as a shorter stack”
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« Reply #51 on: November 14, 2018, 04:54:15 PM »

That’s not really how it works either. In low field tournaments your roi is similar whether to reg first hand or last hand of late reg.  if you have the same roi but miss 2-3 hours then you instantly have way higher roi and can play way more games meaning make more money.
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« Reply #52 on: November 14, 2018, 05:07:27 PM »

That’s not really how it works either. In low field tournaments your roi is similar whether to reg first hand or last hand of late reg.  if you have the same roi but miss 2-3 hours then you instantly have way higher roi and can play way more games meaning make more money.

You should be on the Brexit negotiation team with logic like that. You can’t have the same ROI at both ends of the reg period AND have an instantly higher roi by choosing to late reg. I get the bit about playing more games, but the other bit looks nonsensical,

You didn’t answer the bit about being Mr 99% of the required field by the way.
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« Reply #53 on: November 14, 2018, 05:20:26 PM »

I am no expert on this. But I would have thought if you late reg you are closer to the money, less players remaining, and be less than a double up away from average chips. Stealing blinds and antes are also much more profitable. For all of these reasons the ROI would increase for any player late regging and would be higher for solid pros or short, mid stack specialist.
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« Reply #54 on: November 14, 2018, 05:38:24 PM »

Personally I don't want card-rooms to have overlays, they're not sustainable.
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pleno1
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« Reply #55 on: November 14, 2018, 06:41:07 PM »

That’s not really how it works either. In low field tournaments your roi is similar whether to reg first hand or last hand of late reg.  if you have the same roi but miss 2-3 hours then you instantly have way higher roi and can play way more games meaning make more money.

You should be on the Brexit negotiation team with logic like that. You can’t have the same ROI at both ends of the reg period AND have an instantly higher roi by choosing to late reg. I get the bit about playing more games, but the other bit looks nonsensical,

You didn’t answer the bit about being Mr 99% of the required field by the way.

you have the same roi and thus a higher hourly late regging and higher roi on your session.

lets say there is a game every 30 minutes and you want to max 4 table

you start your session at 4pm and register 4 tables, assuming you have the same roi in all of the tournaments for argument sake then max ev would be to register every tournament at the very last second thus maxing your volume.

if you ever see a 25k online you'll see i do exactly this, i register with literally the last second of the tournament because rois are capped and thus i get best $/hour by playing it at the very last second, if there is a 2000 runner field with huge dead money early, then it is different, although still perhaps roi isn't increased enough to justify registering anything other than last second.

and yes, you're probably right, I would most likely do a better job than the current person negotiating brexit.
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pleno1
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« Reply #56 on: November 14, 2018, 06:46:12 PM »

I am no expert on this. But I would have thought if you late reg you are closer to the money, less players remaining, and be less than a double up away from average chips. Stealing blinds and antes are also much more profitable. For all of these reasons the ROI would increase for any player late regging and would be higher for solid pros or short, mid stack specialist.

well it would also be higer ev for amateurs too.

what do you think an amateur loses the most money in? 200bb deep or 1bb deep?

well lets assume when they go all in vs a pro with 200bbs deep, the pro will likely have 70%+ equity.

lets assume they go all in with 1bb, even if they go all in blind they will have 35% equity vs the top 10% of all hands in poker, by the time they have 15bbs and are selective with what they go all in with, lets say they go all in with top 20% vs pros top 15% their equity is 46%

its a reason why all live tournaments should start 100bb deep, for many many years you would get the nittiest of regs getting it in with 80%+ equity vs amateurs and busting them way too quickly/easily, with the change of 100bb maximum, it at least decreases this.

ideally every tournament should be 40bb from the start to the very end, meaning there is the right amount of skill + luck and edges are capped that amateurs survive longer.

instead we get amateurs who complain that pros go all in blind vs them, again, im not sure how they are expecting to win the tournament or progress without winning chips and simply getting it all in with top 10% vs blind hand you're going to have around 75% equity which is more than almost any pro will have in almost any tournament live or online.
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #57 on: November 15, 2018, 10:03:52 AM »

I actually am not that fussed by this and maybe I should be.

They havnt seen my hole cards or anything, they just are staked into the games and instead of a random backer getting it the company does. Ive gone deep and even won some of the non live party events and Im pretty happy that the guarentees are artifically inflated!

How can you not be concerned by effectively having a team of players all allegedly under the instruction to play as a team?

What do you mean as a team? They are playing individually right? They aren’t showing each other their cards and if they are then it doesn’t have anything about being in a stable or whatever. There has been cheats, there are cheats and there will be cheats in the future. Just because somebody is staked doesn’t mean they are cheats. When Cos and the guys were staked by Blatchly you guys didn’t think they would cheat together right? It’s the same thing here.

I was referring to the posts on 2+2 from BRS players saying they were berated and intimidated by Paul Jackson if they knocked each other out of tournaments and that they received messages if they were on the same table as another BRS player around the bubble.


Yh this never happened.

Thanks for that impartial clarification Rexas

 

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« Reply #58 on: November 15, 2018, 12:24:18 PM »

I actually am not that fussed by this and maybe I should be.

They havnt seen my hole cards or anything, they just are staked into the games and instead of a random backer getting it the company does. Ive gone deep and even won some of the non live party events and Im pretty happy that the guarentees are artifically inflated!

How can you not be concerned by effectively having a team of players all allegedly under the instruction to play as a team?

What do you mean as a team? They are playing individually right? They aren’t showing each other their cards and if they are then it doesn’t have anything about being in a stable or whatever. There has been cheats, there are cheats and there will be cheats in the future. Just because somebody is staked doesn’t mean they are cheats. When Cos and the guys were staked by Blatchly you guys didn’t think they would cheat together right? It’s the same thing here.

I was referring to the posts on 2+2 from BRS players saying they were berated and intimidated by Paul Jackson if they knocked each other out of tournaments and that they received messages if they were on the same table as another BRS player around the bubble.


Yh this never happened.

Thanks for that impartial clarification Rexas

 


I was there, heavily involved in managing players at various points in my time with BRS, have nothing to protect now that BRS doesn't exist anymore, and am not hiding behind a fake account. We fired people for collusion, we didn't encourage it and we certainly never made anyone do it, it's a completely baseless accusation that I find pretty insulting and (shocker) noone has provided anything in the way of proof. Please don't believe what you read on 2+2, especially since the moderators seem outrageously bias against BRS.
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« Reply #59 on: November 15, 2018, 12:35:01 PM »

So BRS no longer exists ?

Is that because of the controversy ?

Or will it just re brand and basically carry on under a different name ?
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