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Author Topic: ICM suicide in WSOP $50k buy in...  (Read 1025 times)
Pokerpops
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« on: July 11, 2019, 11:32:52 AM »

How bad is this?

Payouts:
$1.6M
$1M
$700k
$500k

Blinds: 250k/500k w/500k ante

Tang: 18.6M
Sorverel: 6.3M
Adams 11M
Addamo 1.3M

Tang shoves button.
Sorveral fol
Adams calls with AJo
Addamo folds.

Tang shows AQo and holds

What would you be calling with vs the guy that covers you?

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arbboy
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2019, 02:01:58 PM »

how does he shove the button 4 handed and all 3 people fold after his shove?  Did some one limp fold first to act?  The way you describe it the guy last to fold is the ultra short stack who would have had to limp utg then fold out of 3 bigs? 

Given he has 500k locked up anyway and he only has 22 bigs and the big stack (38 bigs but only effectively shoving 22 bigs at worse) should be shoving very wide for the ICM reasons you state and the next pay jump is only 4 buy ins more i would be calling here with aj all day.  If you call and win you got 24m chips and the other 3 have 6.5m twice and 1.3m.   You are calling here with aj to effectively win the event and 1.6m with 500k already locked up if you do get beat.

If the event was a £50 fo at your local casino and the pay outs were

£1600
£1000
£700
£500

I would be calling all day long with aj in that spot but this is properly why i don't play poker anymore.  I am all ears if i am wrong but its a gamble for me.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 02:15:42 PM by arbboy » Logged
MC
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2019, 02:59:51 PM »

@arbboy - i read it as:
CO (tiny stack) folds
BTN jams
SB folds
BB calls

vs any two BTN shove BB can call 77+ AJs - was surprised it was that wide tbh - but ofc BTN doesn't necessarily jam whole range

But even then AJo burning money. Stakes are irrelevant to the decision.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 03:01:32 PM by MC » Logged

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Doobs
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2019, 04:30:26 PM »

Whilst all these calculations show the value of the ICM hammer, I don't think I have ever seen one put a value on it. 

Adams wins this, chipstacks are 23.3m, 7.6m,6.3m, 1.1m.   Having 23m vs 2 mid stacks has a large positive EV value.  He gets 1.25m shoving virtually every time he shoves on the two mid stacks?   and that remains the case 3 handed?  Would love to properly do a sim over more than one hand. 

I'd say burning money and ICM suicide are very much up for debate.
If AJ suited is nearly a call ignoring the value of the ICM hammer, then AJ off may well be a call if we do put a value on it.


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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2019, 05:07:11 PM »

Whilst all these calculations show the value of the ICM hammer, I don't think I have ever seen one put a value on it. 

Adams wins this, chipstacks are 23.3m, 7.6m,6.3m, 1.1m.   Having 23m vs 2 mid stacks has a large positive EV value.  He gets 1.25m shoving virtually every time he shoves on the two mid stacks?   and that remains the case 3 handed?  Would love to properly do a sim over more than one hand. 

I'd say burning money and ICM suicide are very much up for debate.
If AJ suited is nearly a call ignoring the value of the ICM hammer, then AJ off may well be a call if we do put a value on it.




According to pokernews Adams has AJ suited.   
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
youthnkzR
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« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2019, 01:15:50 PM »

Seems like a terrible call
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4KSuited
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« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2019, 05:14:26 PM »

Glad someone else said that.

I’m no pro (obv), but I think I wait till the guy with <3bb is forced AI and hope that the odds against him surviving hold up.
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