blonde poker forum
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
March 28, 2024, 08:14:49 AM

Login with username, password and session length
Search:     Advanced search
2272476 Posts in 66752 Topics by 16944 Members
Latest Member: Blader
* Home Help Arcade Search Calendar Guidelines Login Register
+  blonde poker forum
|-+  Poker Forums
| |-+  Poker Hand Analysis
| | |-+  ICM suicide in WSOP $50k buy in...
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic. « previous next »
Pages: [1] Go Down Print
Author Topic: ICM suicide in WSOP $50k buy in...  (Read 10926 times)
Pokerpops
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 1423


View Profile
« on: July 11, 2019, 11:32:52 AM »

How bad is this?

Payouts:
$1.6M
$1M
$700k
$500k

Blinds: 250k/500k w/500k ante

Tang: 18.6M
Sorverel: 6.3M
Adams 11M
Addamo 1.3M

Tang shoves button.
Sorveral fol
Adams calls with AJo
Addamo folds.

Tang shows AQo and holds

What would you be calling with vs the guy that covers you?

Logged

"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
arbboy
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 13285


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2019, 02:01:58 PM »

how does he shove the button 4 handed and all 3 people fold after his shove?  Did some one limp fold first to act?  The way you describe it the guy last to fold is the ultra short stack who would have had to limp utg then fold out of 3 bigs? 

Given he has 500k locked up anyway and he only has 22 bigs and the big stack (38 bigs but only effectively shoving 22 bigs at worse) should be shoving very wide for the ICM reasons you state and the next pay jump is only 4 buy ins more i would be calling here with aj all day.  If you call and win you got 24m chips and the other 3 have 6.5m twice and 1.3m.   You are calling here with aj to effectively win the event and 1.6m with 500k already locked up if you do get beat.

If the event was a £50 fo at your local casino and the pay outs were

£1600
£1000
£700
£500

I would be calling all day long with aj in that spot but this is properly why i don't play poker anymore.  I am all ears if i am wrong but its a gamble for me.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 02:15:42 PM by arbboy » Logged
MC
Super
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 6303



View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2019, 02:59:51 PM »

@arbboy - i read it as:
CO (tiny stack) folds
BTN jams
SB folds
BB calls

vs any two BTN shove BB can call 77+ AJs - was surprised it was that wide tbh - but ofc BTN doesn't necessarily jam whole range

But even then AJo burning money. Stakes are irrelevant to the decision.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2019, 03:01:32 PM by MC » Logged

"Success is not final, failure is not fatal"
http://www.atkinator.net ..... @epitomised
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 16570


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2019, 04:30:26 PM »

Whilst all these calculations show the value of the ICM hammer, I don't think I have ever seen one put a value on it. 

Adams wins this, chipstacks are 23.3m, 7.6m,6.3m, 1.1m.   Having 23m vs 2 mid stacks has a large positive EV value.  He gets 1.25m shoving virtually every time he shoves on the two mid stacks?   and that remains the case 3 handed?  Would love to properly do a sim over more than one hand. 

I'd say burning money and ICM suicide are very much up for debate.
If AJ suited is nearly a call ignoring the value of the ICM hammer, then AJ off may well be a call if we do put a value on it.


Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 16570


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2019, 05:07:11 PM »

Whilst all these calculations show the value of the ICM hammer, I don't think I have ever seen one put a value on it. 

Adams wins this, chipstacks are 23.3m, 7.6m,6.3m, 1.1m.   Having 23m vs 2 mid stacks has a large positive EV value.  He gets 1.25m shoving virtually every time he shoves on the two mid stacks?   and that remains the case 3 handed?  Would love to properly do a sim over more than one hand. 

I'd say burning money and ICM suicide are very much up for debate.
If AJ suited is nearly a call ignoring the value of the ICM hammer, then AJ off may well be a call if we do put a value on it.




According to pokernews Adams has AJ suited.   
Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
youthnkzR
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 2406


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2019, 01:15:50 PM »

Seems like a terrible call
Logged
4KSuited
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 1147



View Profile
« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2019, 05:14:26 PM »

Glad someone else said that.

I’m no pro (obv), but I think I wait till the guy with <3bb is forced AI and hope that the odds against him surviving hold up.
Logged
Pages: [1] Go Up Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.08 seconds with 20 queries.