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Author Topic: I Think This Deserves It's Own Thread  (Read 1859 times)
tikay
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« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2020, 05:29:49 PM »

I love trying to work out the odds of things happening.

I recently tried to work out the chances of a pebble thrown from the thread of a car tyre hitting me in the eye while I'm cycling.

It's amazing how many variables you have to consider.

OK, try this for size.

How many piano tuners are there in Leicester?
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« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2020, 05:48:26 PM »

I love trying to work out the odds of things happening.

I recently tried to work out the chances of a pebble thrown from the thread of a car tyre hitting me in the eye while I'm cycling.

It's amazing how many variables you have to consider.

OK, try this for size.

How many piano tuners are there in Leicester?


Can I google how many homes or do I have to estimate everything?
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tikay
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« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2020, 05:55:33 PM »

I love trying to work out the odds of things happening.

I recently tried to work out the chances of a pebble thrown from the thread of a car tyre hitting me in the eye while I'm cycling.

It's amazing how many variables you have to consider.

OK, try this for size.

How many piano tuners are there in Leicester?


Can I google how many homes or do I have to estimate everything?

You can, yes, that's your starting point.
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« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2020, 06:31:00 PM »

I love trying to work out the odds of things happening.

I recently tried to work out the chances of a pebble thrown from the thread of a car tyre hitting me in the eye while I'm cycling.

It's amazing how many variables you have to consider.

OK, try this for size.

How many piano tuners are there in Leicester?


Can I google how many homes or do I have to estimate everything?

You can, yes, that's your starting point.



123,125 Households.

Say one in 200 have a piano.

123,125 / 200 = 615 pianos.

Say 50% have them tuned once a year, that means ~306 pianos need tuning.

Say it costs £50 to tune a piano so a tuner needs to do 2.5 pianos a day.

260 week days per year.

260 x 2.5 = 650.

There is enough work for 0.47, or just less than half a piano tuner.

He could always do a few in Loughborough as well though.

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tikay
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« Reply #19 on: January 16, 2020, 06:45:00 PM »


Very good.

So what are the chances of a stone from a car tyre hitting the piano tuner in the eye whilst he is cycling to a job?
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« Reply #20 on: January 16, 2020, 06:45:11 PM »

I love trying to work out the odds of things happening.

I recently tried to work out the chances of a pebble thrown from the thread of a car tyre hitting me in the eye while I'm cycling.

It's amazing how many variables you have to consider.

you should have sent an email to skybet's request a bet department for a price to compare to your own calculations!
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« Reply #21 on: January 16, 2020, 07:29:15 PM »


Very good.

So what are the chances of a stone from a car tyre hitting the piano tuner in the eye whilst he is cycling to a job?

About the same as the chances of sandpapering an elephant down to a greyhound.
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« Reply #22 on: January 17, 2020, 09:59:55 AM »

seems like the best way to get a price on the triple triple bingo would be to Monte Carlo it.
intuitively it's a longer shot than the golf because of the dangling constraint though, and the constraint of using up a single triple. If I hit a hole in one, there's nothing stopping you doing the same in the same round, but if I use a triple, it's exhausted for you for that game.
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« Reply #23 on: January 17, 2020, 10:01:54 AM »

I love trying to work out the odds of things happening.

I recently tried to work out the chances of a pebble thrown from the thread of a car tyre hitting me in the eye while I'm cycling.

It's amazing how many variables you have to consider.

OK, try this for size.

How many piano tuners are there in Leicester?

love a bit of Fermi estimation!
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tikay
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« Reply #24 on: January 17, 2020, 10:13:27 AM »

I love trying to work out the odds of things happening.

I recently tried to work out the chances of a pebble thrown from the thread of a car tyre hitting me in the eye while I'm cycling.

It's amazing how many variables you have to consider.

OK, try this for size.

How many piano tuners are there in Leicester?

love a bit of Fermi estimation!

Me too, but I fancy Tom was way ahead of me.

I once used Fermi to estimate how many poker players in London play online on a random night. The number (probably way wrong) was surprisingly small.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2020, 10:15:16 AM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #25 on: January 17, 2020, 11:53:53 AM »

I love trying to work out the odds of things happening.

I recently tried to work out the chances of a pebble thrown from the thread of a car tyre hitting me in the eye while I'm cycling.

It's amazing how many variables you have to consider.

OK, try this for size.

How many piano tuners are there in Leicester?

love a bit of Fermi estimation!

Me too, but I fancy Tom was way ahead of me.


I once used Fermi to estimate how many poker players in London play online on a random night. The number (probably way wrong) was surprisingly small.

It would be news to me if I was, although the word Fermi does sound familiar so I might have learned something and then forgotten I'd learned it.
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« Reply #26 on: January 17, 2020, 11:55:34 AM »

Now that I've Googled I know that there is actually 1 piano tuner in Leicester, not 0.47 as I predicted.
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tikay
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« Reply #27 on: January 17, 2020, 12:06:02 PM »

Now that I've Googled I know that there is actually 1 piano tuner in Leicester, not 0.47 as I predicted.

You were half-right then.
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« Reply #28 on: March 05, 2020, 05:55:26 PM »

https://www.facebook.com/ScrabbleEA/photos/a.278357942239981/2760971593978591/?type=3&theater

Facebook OAPs livid.
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« Reply #29 on: March 05, 2020, 08:55:28 PM »

Surely the triple-triple bingo is either "On" or it isn't, whereas the hole in one is always on.

What I mean is, and I'm guessing here, on the average course there must be about 6 or so greens where a hole in one is a possibility, but in most games of Scrabble, a triple-triple bingo is not.

Usually four or five short holes on a golf course.

Someone opens the outside at some point in scrabble and as long as there is one tile on the outside with the trebles open it's on.

I've had one career triple-treble and no holes-in-one but I've probably played a hundred times as many rounds of golf.

Even my Dad has had a hole in one, Ralph! Get a grip! :-)  He’s been playing over 60 years, very regularly so it surprises me he hasn’t had more.  I know of terrible golfers that have had double figures and outstanding golfers with only 1 or 2 to their name.

On the scrabble comparison, I’d say the scrabble one is harder due to multiple different factors and variables.  Golf presents more regular and consistent opportunities despite other variables - in that every course has at least 3 opportunities, even for the average golfer. What’s more, you can get lucky holes-in-one whereas to get a triple-treble requires a lots of skill and not much luck.

That’s my take anyway being alot more knowledgable on one of the games than the other but reasonably proficient at both.
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