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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353859 times)
the sicilian
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« Reply #1005 on: March 31, 2020, 07:11:17 PM »

According to the gov site application process for employers to claim on the furlough scheme won’t be available until at least the end of April.. why ? The infrastructure is there.. you have to have paye scheme in place and the employees registered to it. Why such a delay?.. a deliberate tactic so that companies who do not have the liquidity to carry the costs of keeping staff on will go out of business and thus not be able to claim.. I know they say about temp loans but you have to go through an application process and they still want security such as property
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« Reply #1006 on: March 31, 2020, 07:27:49 PM »

This is what i have been trying to find data for the past few weeks. I had found the ~1700 daily deaths number for UK (normally) but been hard to get a sensible estimate on what the actual uptick is / is predicted to be.

https://news.sky.com/video/covid-19-how-do-figures-of-virus-deaths-compare-to-a-normal-year-11964813

Interesting, saying 1/2 to 2/3 would have died this year anyway. So an approx excess of 8,000... similar to Flu.

20,000 isn't the deaths expected, it is a possible scenario, and deaths are only kept that low in that scenario if the UK's measures are really effective and some other optimistic assumptions are met.

This article is good.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus/

The problem is that if you produce a range of possibilities, the doom mongers will emphasise the one where 2 million die; and those that don't want the close down will emphasise the 20,000.  Of course the 20,000 is dependent on ongoing restrictions for a long time/until a succesful vaccine is available.  

The "revised" forecast was covered here by the man who said both 20,000 and 500,000. https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1243294815200124928

FWIW 20,000 seems pretty optiistic given we have just had nearly 400 deaths in a day, and the lag in the reporting means that is likely to be understated.  I hope it happens, but events are making it increasingly unlikely.

I think we’d all do well to ignore all posts in this thread that aren’t authored by Doobs, or JonMW.

Including this one probably.

Pretty much what I do, unless I'm looking to irritate myself.

Nirvana's for satire and dark humour, too Smiley
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« Reply #1007 on: March 31, 2020, 07:35:48 PM »

Fuck the doom and gloom and blame, I always find the positives.......

https://twitter.com/BostonStNic/status/1245055857169178625
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« Reply #1008 on: March 31, 2020, 07:51:18 PM »

Fuck the doom and gloom and blame, I occasionally find the positives when the max troll button has been turned off.......

https://twitter.com/BostonStNic/status/1245055857169178625

FYP Wink

Nice vid.
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #1009 on: March 31, 2020, 10:29:35 PM »

According to the gov site application process for employers to claim on the furlough scheme won’t be available until at least the end of April.. why ? The infrastructure is there.. you have to have paye scheme in place and the employees registered to it. Why such a delay?.. a deliberate tactic so that companies who do not have the liquidity to carry the costs of keeping staff on will go out of business and thus not be able to claim.. I know they say about temp loans but you have to go through an application process and they still want security such as property

They always said end of April. HMRC are the spowest. Reversing their infrastructure to dish out this kind of money isn't going to be simple.

The loans are a lot slower than I initially expected, and I'm sure that is going to be a huge problem for lots of people. Not sure I have an issue with them looking for security though, it's pretty standard and I believe they have to justify any unsecured amounts over 250k to the government.
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« Reply #1010 on: April 01, 2020, 08:46:54 AM »


Morning all,

A change of emphasis on the John Burn-Murdoch charts and more good insight:
(the old charts are all still being updated as well)

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245106818344538126?s=21
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« Reply #1011 on: April 01, 2020, 09:28:32 AM »


Morning all,

A change of emphasis on the John Burn-Murdoch charts and more good insight:
(the old charts are all still being updated as well)

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245106818344538126?s=21

We can "turn the corner" in these charts just by testing even less - nobody tell Dom Cummings.  Even though the US is getting more tests done, their chart could just reflect the increasing difficult of obtaining enough testing capacity. Thus, for a lot of countries, the number of real cases is likely to be increasing more rapidly than shown in the charts

Having said that, there does appear to be good news from Italy.  I don't know the specifics of their testing, but I assume their testing isn't falling, so the figures at least represent the number of positives from the same number of tests.  The daily increase in deaths is also slowing there too.  Also Germany has much more capacity than we do, so a levelling off there is a good sign too.

If the USA and us ever get to the stage where we test better, our charts are going to go a bit nuts.  Given I read last night that we were now hoping for 25,000 tests by the end of April, then I can't see our chart going nuts for a while.  Maybe sometime in May we will see a major increase in our testing capacity, so the chart will then show an increasing number of cases?  At the same stage, the deaths could be falling significantly. 


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« Reply #1012 on: April 01, 2020, 09:41:59 AM »


Morning all,

A change of emphasis on the John Burn-Murdoch charts and more good insight:
(the old charts are all still being updated as well)

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245106818344538126?s=21

We can "turn the corner" in these charts just by testing even less - nobody tell Dom Cummings.  Even though the US is getting more tests done, their chart could just reflect the increasing difficult of obtaining enough testing capacity. Thus, for a lot of countries, the number of real cases is likely to be increasing more rapidly than shown in the charts

Having said that, there does appear to be good news from Italy.  I don't know the specifics of their testing, but I assume their testing isn't falling, so the figures at least represent the number of positives from the same number of tests.  The daily increase in deaths is also slowing there too.  Also Germany has much more capacity than we do, so a levelling off there is a good sign too.

If the USA and us ever get to the stage where we test better, our charts are going to go a bit nuts.  Given I read last night that we were now hoping for 25,000 tests by the end of April, then I can't see our chart going nuts for a while.  Maybe sometime in May we will see a major increase in our testing capacity, so the chart will then show an increasing number of cases?  At the same stage, the deaths could be falling significantly.  





Question for Doobs..

Is comparing numbers of cases, and deaths without any reference to population size a fair measure? Spain has a population of c40MM and has more cases than many larger countries.
I appreciate that both Italy and Spain may have populations that are skewed to the older end, but even so, Spain has more cases than Italy despite having a population that is only 2/3 of Italy’s.


Edited to add link to table breaking down figures per MM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 10:02:50 AM by Pokerpops » Logged

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EvilPie
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« Reply #1013 on: April 01, 2020, 09:44:04 AM »

According to the gov site application process for employers to claim on the furlough scheme won’t be available until at least the end of April.. why ? The infrastructure is there.. you have to have paye scheme in place and the employees registered to it. Why such a delay?.. a deliberate tactic so that companies who do not have the liquidity to carry the costs of keeping staff on will go out of business and thus not be able to claim.. I know they say about temp loans but you have to go through an application process and they still want security such as property

They always said end of April. HMRC are the spowest. Reversing their infrastructure to dish out this kind of money isn't going to be simple.

The loans are a lot slower than I initially expected, and I'm sure that is going to be a huge problem for lots of people. Not sure I have an issue with them looking for security though, it's pretty standard and I believe they have to justify any unsecured amounts over 250k to the government.

I think it'll put loads through and that will have a huge knock on effect on the supply chain.

We're in a very strong cash position at the moment for a Company of our size but it's not going to be easy even for us. We don't have too many employees but having run the first payroll with furlough included I'm looking at around £7500 per week going out with zero chance of anything coming back for 6 weeks. £45k of cash flow is tough in our position so I'm sure other Companies will have an absolute nightmare.

It's great news for me if the cut off for justification is £250k as that's well over any amount I'd want to borrow. If I can just get enough to cover the wage bill that would do so going on what you've said I might just get the application in now and be done with it.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1014 on: April 01, 2020, 10:05:46 AM »


Morning all,

A change of emphasis on the John Burn-Murdoch charts and more good insight:
(the old charts are all still being updated as well)

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245106818344538126?s=21

We can "turn the corner" in these charts just by testing even less - nobody tell Dom Cummings.  Even though the US is getting more tests done, their chart could just reflect the increasing difficult of obtaining enough testing capacity. Thus, for a lot of countries, the number of real cases is likely to be increasing more rapidly than shown in the charts

Having said that, there does appear to be good news from Italy.  I don't know the specifics of their testing, but I assume their testing isn't falling, so the figures at least represent the number of positives from the same number of tests.  The daily increase in deaths is also slowing there too.  Also Germany has much more capacity than we do, so a levelling off there is a good sign too.

If the USA and us ever get to the stage where we test better, our charts are going to go a bit nuts.  Given I read last night that we were now hoping for 25,000 tests by the end of April, then I can't see our chart going nuts for a while.  Maybe sometime in May we will see a major increase in our testing capacity, so the chart will then show an increasing number of cases?  At the same stage, the deaths could be falling significantly. 


At the levels of testing we have, the fatalities continue to be a much more reliable indicator. Our graph for cases must be increasingly skewed by the fact that testing is trending up so slowly relative to the number of cases there inevitably are:

https://twitter.com/murtaman/status/1245002319886012416?s=21

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« Reply #1015 on: April 01, 2020, 10:13:52 AM »

Just lol that they're coming in through Heathrow and being sent on their way with a 'please try to self isolate'. Straight on to the tube.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 10:20:41 AM by Chompy » Logged

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« Reply #1016 on: April 01, 2020, 10:16:05 AM »

According to the gov site application process for employers to claim on the furlough scheme won’t be available until at least the end of April.. why ? The infrastructure is there.. you have to have paye scheme in place and the employees registered to it. Why such a delay?.. a deliberate tactic so that companies who do not have the liquidity to carry the costs of keeping staff on will go out of business and thus not be able to claim.. I know they say about temp loans but you have to go through an application process and they still want security such as property

They always said end of April. HMRC are the spowest. Reversing their infrastructure to dish out this kind of money isn't going to be simple.

The loans are a lot slower than I initially expected, and I'm sure that is going to be a huge problem for lots of people. Not sure I have an issue with them looking for security though, it's pretty standard and I believe they have to justify any unsecured amounts over 250k to the government.

I think it'll put loads through and that will have a huge knock on effect on the supply chain.

We're in a very strong cash position at the moment for a Company of our size but it's not going to be easy even for us. We don't have too many employees but having run the first payroll with furlough included I'm looking at around £7500 per week going out with zero chance of anything coming back for 6 weeks. £45k of cash flow is tough in our position so I'm sure other Companies will have an absolute nightmare.

It's great news for me if the cut off for justification is £250k as that's well over any amount I'd want to borrow. If I can just get enough to cover the wage bill that would do so going on what you've said I might just get the application in now and be done with it.


Applied online for the loan...they said wait for a call back within 2 to 5 days. Our business hasn't needed financial help in 18 years of trading and we are looking well under 100k. I remember been offered/emailed 50k last year in a pre approved loan....so it will be interesting how easy this process will be now.  "Luckily" our weekly wages are about 2k so we can cope to the end of April. As it stands we dont qualify for the business rate holiday or grant, and that costs us about 40k , so a loan is going to be vital.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1017 on: April 01, 2020, 10:29:44 AM »

Just lol that they're coming in through Heathrow and being sent on their way with a 'please try to self isolate'. Straight on to the tube.

Seems like an amazingly high proportion are from NYC, hard to see how that goes wrong:

https://www.airport-london-heathrow.com/lhr-arrivals?fbclid=IwAR01xN0vaMi278Bisq3tAhZsKB33XaW2zKhbgvQC002hWj3wAkyMjYSR_9o

and plenty from Madrid.

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EvilPie
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« Reply #1018 on: April 01, 2020, 11:58:45 AM »

Just lol that they're coming in through Heathrow and being sent on their way with a 'please try to self isolate'. Straight on to the tube.

Seems like an amazingly high proportion are from NYC, hard to see how that goes wrong:

https://www.airport-london-heathrow.com/lhr-arrivals?fbclid=IwAR01xN0vaMi278Bisq3tAhZsKB33XaW2zKhbgvQC002hWj3wAkyMjYSR_9o

and plenty from Madrid.



I assume they're being temperature checked prior to boarding though? If that's the case there's no need to do it again 7hrs later

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« Reply #1019 on: April 01, 2020, 12:39:00 PM »

Be interesting to see if or how us and many of the countries we buy goods from can ever properly discuss this

https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/1245255823133196288?s=09
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