COVID19

[kukushkin88]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

In fact, you could imagine Mail and Express readers being insulted by the comparison these days, which is quite something.

[StuartHopkin]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

It’s time to revisit the ICU capacity as the sole measure of success idea. Best projections say we must be over a thousand deaths (it must be lots more but it’s an ok conservative estimation) now of people who didn’t even make it to hospital. Crowing about spare ICU capacity doesn’t seem right in the situation.

I don't think anyone said it was the sole measure of success did they? (Happy to be corrected on this, some of you guys are following the detail of this a lot more closely than I)

It's a hugely important measure of how the country is up-scaling ICU capacity and reducing the demand on it?

It's very sad that people are dying before making it to hospital but that should be another separate measure.

Do you think the deaths/infections are flattening Kush? If we achieve a similar curve to Italy without the harsh lock down would that not be a success?

For what its worth I agree that things should have been done earlier, the lack of control at airports and now lack of PPE for NHS are two of the things I just don't get.

[Pokerpops]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

Try reading the articles, rather than sniping at the headlines. They may not match your world view, but there is some proper thinking journalism in there.

Btw, The Grauniad has it’s fair share of ‘bait’ headlines...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/coronavirus-outbreak

[kukushkin88]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

It’s time to revisit the ICU capacity as the sole measure of success idea. Best projections say we must be over a thousand deaths (it must be lots more but it’s an ok conservative estimation) now of people who didn’t even make it to hospital. Crowing about spare ICU capacity doesn’t seem right in the situation.

I don't think anyone said it was the sole measure of success did they? (Happy to be corrected on this, some of you guys are following the detail of this a lot more closely than I)

It's a hugely important measure of how the country is up-scaling ICU capacity and reducing the demand on it?

It's very sad that people are dying before making it to hospital but that should be another separate measure.

Do you think the deaths/infections are flattening Kush? If we achieve a similar curve to Italy without the harsh lock down would that not be a success?

For what its worth I agree that things should have been done earlier, the lack of control at airports and now lack of PPE for NHS are two of the things I just don't get.

Good morning

We’ll know a lot more about the curve on Wednesday/Thursday of this week (based on reporting patterns). For sure it seems to be levelling out/accelerating less quickly.

I know it might not look like it from some of my posts but I’m keen that lay people (like me) don’t try and be wise after the event. It was March 6th that my colleagues were involved in the London LRF and I was really surprised that we (both them and as a nation) still seemed to be non-believers at that time.

I don’t think we can measure success/failure easily against any other nation. It does seem incredible that with earlier warning than most comparable nations we have found ourselves with both one of the steepest curves and one of the two curves on an ‘every day more deaths than the last (on the seven day rolling average) trajectory amongst comparable nations. I think every country should focus (including collaboratively) on what could be done better and the time for it is now, not afterwards.

The ICU capacity was/is an approved measure and JMW brought it to our attention at an early stage as being a critical measure(from the IC model I believe?). We now have a situation though where we hear regularly that there is ICU capacity, whilst at the same time people are dying outside of hospital, not because they couldn’t get to hospital but because they don’t meet the criteria for treatment. I understand why but it is brutal and should be acknowledged, rather than swept under the carpet. The daily briefings should be about owning it, (think Cuomo and to a lesser extent Sturgeon) and not trying to spin it in to a positive.

I hope all is well with the new baby and you’re all getting some sleep.

[kukushkin88]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

Try reading the articles, rather than sniping at the headlines. They may not match your world view, but there is some proper thinking journalism in there.

Btw, The Grauniad has it’s fair share of ‘bait’ headlines...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/coronavirus-outbreak

Maybe you could recommend an article or two? There must be some gems out there from Allison Pearson/Daniel Hannan?

[Pokerpops]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

It’s time to revisit the ICU capacity as the sole measure of success idea. Best projections say we must be over a thousand deaths (it must be lots more but it’s an ok conservative estimation) now of people who didn’t even make it to hospital. Crowing about spare ICU capacity doesn’t seem right in the situation.

I don't think anyone said it was the sole measure of success did they? (Happy to be corrected on this, some of you guys are following the detail of this a lot more closely than I)

It's a hugely important measure of how the country is up-scaling ICU capacity and reducing the demand on it?

It's very sad that people are dying before making it to hospital but that should be another separate measure.

Do you think the deaths/infections are flattening Kush? If we achieve a similar curve to Italy without the harsh lock down would that not be a success?

For what its worth I agree that things should have been done earlier, the lack of control at airports and now lack of PPE for NHS are two of the things I just don't get.

Good morning

We’ll know a lot more about the curve on Wednesday/Thursday of this week (based on reporting patterns). For sure it seems to be levelling out/accelerating less quickly.

I know it might not look like it from some of my posts but I’m keen that lay people (like me) don’t try and be wise after the event. It was March 6th that my colleagues were involved in the London LRF and I was really surprised that we (both them and as a nation) still seemed to be non-believers at that time.

I don’t think we can measure success/failure easily against any other nation. It does seem incredible that with earlier warning than most comparable nations we have found ourselves with both one of the steepest curves and one of the two curves on an ‘every day more deaths than the last (on the seven day rolling average) trajectory amongst comparable nations. I think every country should focus (including collaboratively) on what could be done better and the time for it is now, not afterwards.

The ICU capacity was/is an approved measure and JMW brought it to our attention at an early stage as being a critical measure(from the IC model I believe?). We now have a situation though where we hear regularly that there is ICU capacity, whilst at the same time people are dying outside of hospital, not because they couldn’t get to hospital but because they don’t meet the criteria for treatment. I understand why but it is brutal and should be acknowledged, rather than swept under the carpet. The daily briefings should be about owning it, (think Cuomo and to a lesser extent Sturgeon) and not trying to spin it in to a positive.

I hope all is well with the new baby and you’re all getting some sleep.

The link is explaining why we shouldn’t wait. The time to scrutinise why our response is give or take the world’s worsts so far is now. Afterwards the Tory machine will be all out for ‘that was bad chaps but let’s move on’.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1249247210287570944?s=21

 

[kukushkin88]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

It’s time to revisit the ICU capacity as the sole measure of success idea. Best projections say we must be over a thousand deaths (it must be lots more but it’s an ok conservative estimation) now of people who didn’t even make it to hospital. Crowing about spare ICU capacity doesn’t seem right in the situation.

I don't think anyone said it was the sole measure of success did they? (Happy to be corrected on this, some of you guys are following the detail of this a lot more closely than I)

It's a hugely important measure of how the country is up-scaling ICU capacity and reducing the demand on it?

It's very sad that people are dying before making it to hospital but that should be another separate measure.

Do you think the deaths/infections are flattening Kush? If we achieve a similar curve to Italy without the harsh lock down would that not be a success?

For what its worth I agree that things should have been done earlier, the lack of control at airports and now lack of PPE for NHS are two of the things I just don't get.

Good morning

We’ll know a lot more about the curve on Wednesday/Thursday of this week (based on reporting patterns). For sure it seems to be levelling out/accelerating less quickly.

I know it might not look like it from some of my posts but I’m keen that lay people (like me) don’t try and be wise after the event. It was March 6th that my colleagues were involved in the London LRF and I was really surprised that we (both them and as a nation) still seemed to be non-believers at that time.

I don’t think we can measure success/failure easily against any other nation. It does seem incredible that with earlier warning than most comparable nations we have found ourselves with both one of the steepest curves and one of the two curves on an ‘every day more deaths than the last (on the seven day rolling average) trajectory amongst comparable nations. I think every country should focus (including collaboratively) on what could be done better and the time for it is now, not afterwards.

The ICU capacity was/is an approved measure and JMW brought it to our attention at an early stage as being a critical measure(from the IC model I believe?). We now have a situation though where we hear regularly that there is ICU capacity, whilst at the same time people are dying outside of hospital, not because they couldn’t get to hospital but because they don’t meet the criteria for treatment. I understand why but it is brutal and should be acknowledged, rather than swept under the carpet. The daily briefings should be about owning it, (think Cuomo and to a lesser extent Sturgeon) and not trying to spin it in to a positive.

I hope all is well with the new baby and you’re all getting some sleep.

The link is explaining why we shouldn’t wait. The time to scrutinise why our response is give or take the world’s worsts so far is now. Afterwards the Tory machine will be all out for ‘that was bad chaps but let’s move on’.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1249247210287570944?s=21

 

It’s the difference between a crude comparison for the purpose of a discussion on the internet, our response does not measure up well against anybody, clearly. Compared to a forensic analysis of every aspect of what each country has done to try and bring about improvement.

It’s the difference between discussing something with Doobs/Stu/JMW (two of who must be Conservative voters but are very reasonable people) and discussing something with the Tory fanboys.

[nirvana]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

It’s time to revisit the ICU capacity as the sole measure of success idea. Best projections say we must be over a thousand deaths (it must be lots more but it’s an ok conservative estimation) now of people who didn’t even make it to hospital. Crowing about spare ICU capacity doesn’t seem right in the situation.

I don't think anyone said it was the sole measure of success did they? (Happy to be corrected on this, some of you guys are following the detail of this a lot more closely than I)

It's a hugely important measure of how the country is up-scaling ICU capacity and reducing the demand on it?

It's very sad that people are dying before making it to hospital but that should be another separate measure.

Do you think the deaths/infections are flattening Kush? If we achieve a similar curve to Italy without the harsh lock down would that not be a success?

For what its worth I agree that things should have been done earlier, the lack of control at airports and now lack of PPE for NHS are two of the things I just don't get.

Good morning

We’ll know a lot more about the curve on Wednesday/Thursday of this week (based on reporting patterns). For sure it seems to be levelling out/accelerating less quickly.

I know it might not look like it from some of my posts but I’m keen that lay people (like me) don’t try and be wise after the event. It was March 6th that my colleagues were involved in the London LRF and I was really surprised that we (both them and as a nation) still seemed to be non-believers at that time.

I don’t think we can measure success/failure easily against any other nation. It does seem incredible that with earlier warning than most comparable nations we have found ourselves with both one of the steepest curves and one of the two curves on an ‘every day more deaths than the last (on the seven day rolling average) trajectory amongst comparable nations. I think every country should focus (including collaboratively) on what could be done better and the time for it is now, not afterwards.

The ICU capacity was/is an approved measure and JMW brought it to our attention at an early stage as being a critical measure(from the IC model I believe?). We now have a situation though where we hear regularly that there is ICU capacity, whilst at the same time people are dying outside of hospital, not because they couldn’t get to hospital but because they don’t meet the criteria for treatment. I understand why but it is brutal and should be acknowledged, rather than swept under the carpet. The daily briefings should be about owning it, (think Cuomo and to a lesser extent Sturgeon) and not trying to spin it in to a positive.

I hope all is well with the new baby and you’re all getting some sleep.

On the 5ht march the deaths in Italy were still less than 200. It looked like Italy was a massive outlier in Europe, most were very old and they had just announced school closures for a period of just 2 weeks. No one really knew much at all. Its just over a month ago and so it's not surprising that people here didn't appreciate the seriousness and were more or less business as usual.

So I'm pretty confident that 99% of critical stuff written is being wise after the event. Over the last 3 weeks or so, that's just 3 weeks,  there are many legitimate logistical and mobilisation questions for govt about response, ppe, rate of testing amongst other things once the die was cast. On the severity of lockdown there is no right answer, only opinions.

[kukushkin88]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

It’s time to revisit the ICU capacity as the sole measure of success idea. Best projections say we must be over a thousand deaths (it must be lots more but it’s an ok conservative estimation) now of people who didn’t even make it to hospital. Crowing about spare ICU capacity doesn’t seem right in the situation.

I don't think anyone said it was the sole measure of success did they? (Happy to be corrected on this, some of you guys are following the detail of this a lot more closely than I)

It's a hugely important measure of how the country is up-scaling ICU capacity and reducing the demand on it?

It's very sad that people are dying before making it to hospital but that should be another separate measure.

Do you think the deaths/infections are flattening Kush? If we achieve a similar curve to Italy without the harsh lock down would that not be a success?

For what its worth I agree that things should have been done earlier, the lack of control at airports and now lack of PPE for NHS are two of the things I just don't get.

Good morning

We’ll know a lot more about the curve on Wednesday/Thursday of this week (based on reporting patterns). For sure it seems to be levelling out/accelerating less quickly.

I know it might not look like it from some of my posts but I’m keen that lay people (like me) don’t try and be wise after the event. It was March 6th that my colleagues were involved in the London LRF and I was really surprised that we (both them and as a nation) still seemed to be non-believers at that time.

I don’t think we can measure success/failure easily against any other nation. It does seem incredible that with earlier warning than most comparable nations we have found ourselves with both one of the steepest curves and one of the two curves on an ‘every day more deaths than the last (on the seven day rolling average) trajectory amongst comparable nations. I think every country should focus (including collaboratively) on what could be done better and the time for it is now, not afterwards.

The ICU capacity was/is an approved measure and JMW brought it to our attention at an early stage as being a critical measure(from the IC model I believe?). We now have a situation though where we hear regularly that there is ICU capacity, whilst at the same time people are dying outside of hospital, not because they couldn’t get to hospital but because they don’t meet the criteria for treatment. I understand why but it is brutal and should be acknowledged, rather than swept under the carpet. The daily briefings should be about owning it, (think Cuomo and to a lesser extent Sturgeon) and not trying to spin it in to a positive.

I hope all is well with the new baby and you’re all getting some sleep.

On the 5ht march the deaths in Italy were still less than 200. It looked like Italy was a massive outlier in Europe, most were very old and they had just announced school closures for a period of just 2 weeks. No one really knew much at all. Its just over a month ago and so it's not surprising that people here didn't appreciate the seriousness and were more or less business as usual.

So I'm pretty confident that 99% of critical stuff written is being wise after the event. Over the last 3 weeks or so, that's just 3 weeks,  there are many legitimate logistical and mobilisation questions for govt about response, ppe, rate of testing amongst other things once the die was cast. On the severity of lockdown there is no right answer, only opinions.

Morning,

We could get my friends/colleagues to come and give testimony to the forum >jokes<. I foolishly (given my own medical situation) went for lunch with them after the LRF meeting and no doubt I would have been a dissenting voice if I had been present at the forum. They were pretty much giving me grief for scaremongering. Once it was established in Italy, there was no reason why we would be different.

[nirvana]

Also totally ridiculous to measure our response as the worst in the world and it's why your opinions look silly.

There's a few broad categories in response

Theres good Asian response. Say Singapore Taiwan.
There's liars - say Iran, china
There's 'good' western response, say Germany Austria Denmark.
The rest in Europe, Italy France UK etc.

There is no consistency across any 2 nations in terms of reporting and most of the world isn't tracking this the way the open Western democracies are. Saying ours is the worst response in this tiny snapshot period of the whole crisis is meaningless and purely politically driven whether the reader is a tory fan boy or not.

[nirvana]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

It’s time to revisit the ICU capacity as the sole measure of success idea. Best projections say we must be over a thousand deaths (it must be lots more but it’s an ok conservative estimation) now of people who didn’t even make it to hospital. Crowing about spare ICU capacity doesn’t seem right in the situation.

I don't think anyone said it was the sole measure of success did they? (Happy to be corrected on this, some of you guys are following the detail of this a lot more closely than I)

It's a hugely important measure of how the country is up-scaling ICU capacity and reducing the demand on it?

It's very sad that people are dying before making it to hospital but that should be another separate measure.

Do you think the deaths/infections are flattening Kush? If we achieve a similar curve to Italy without the harsh lock down would that not be a success?

For what its worth I agree that things should have been done earlier, the lack of control at airports and now lack of PPE for NHS are two of the things I just don't get.

Good morning

We’ll know a lot more about the curve on Wednesday/Thursday of this week (based on reporting patterns). For sure it seems to be levelling out/accelerating less quickly.

I know it might not look like it from some of my posts but I’m keen that lay people (like me) don’t try and be wise after the event. It was March 6th that my colleagues were involved in the London LRF and I was really surprised that we (both them and as a nation) still seemed to be non-believers at that time.

I don’t think we can measure success/failure easily against any other nation. It does seem incredible that with earlier warning than most comparable nations we have found ourselves with both one of the steepest curves and one of the two curves on an ‘every day more deaths than the last (on the seven day rolling average) trajectory amongst comparable nations. I think every country should focus (including collaboratively) on what could be done better and the time for it is now, not afterwards.

The ICU capacity was/is an approved measure and JMW brought it to our attention at an early stage as being a critical measure(from the IC model I believe?). We now have a situation though where we hear regularly that there is ICU capacity, whilst at the same time people are dying outside of hospital, not because they couldn’t get to hospital but because they don’t meet the criteria for treatment. I understand why but it is brutal and should be acknowledged, rather than swept under the carpet. The daily briefings should be about owning it, (think Cuomo and to a lesser extent Sturgeon) and not trying to spin it in to a positive.

I hope all is well with the new baby and you’re all getting some sleep.

On the 5ht march the deaths in Italy were still less than 200. It looked like Italy was a massive outlier in Europe, most were very old and they had just announced school closures for a period of just 2 weeks. No one really knew much at all. Its just over a month ago and so it's not surprising that people here didn't appreciate the seriousness and were more or less business as usual.

So I'm pretty confident that 99% of critical stuff written is being wise after the event. Over the last 3 weeks or so, that's just 3 weeks,  there are many legitimate logistical and mobilisation questions for govt about response, ppe, rate of testing amongst other things once the die was cast. On the severity of lockdown there is no right answer, only opinions.

Morning,

We could get my friends/colleagues to come and give testimony to the forum >jokes<. I foolishly (given my own medical situation) went for lunch with them after the LRF meeting and no doubt I would have been a dissenting voice if I had been present at the forum. They were pretty much giving me grief for scaremongering. Once it was established in Italy, there was no reason why we would be different.

Then you can put yourself in the 1%.

[Doobs]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

It’s time to revisit the ICU capacity as the sole measure of success idea. Best projections say we must be over a thousand deaths (it must be lots more but it’s an ok conservative estimation) now of people who didn’t even make it to hospital. Crowing about spare ICU capacity doesn’t seem right in the situation.

I don't think anyone said it was the sole measure of success did they? (Happy to be corrected on this, some of you guys are following the detail of this a lot more closely than I)

It's a hugely important measure of how the country is up-scaling ICU capacity and reducing the demand on it?

It's very sad that people are dying before making it to hospital but that should be another separate measure.

Do you think the deaths/infections are flattening Kush? If we achieve a similar curve to Italy without the harsh lock down would that not be a success?

For what its worth I agree that things should have been done earlier, the lack of control at airports and now lack of PPE for NHS are two of the things I just don't get.

Good morning

We’ll know a lot more about the curve on Wednesday/Thursday of this week (based on reporting patterns). For sure it seems to be levelling out/accelerating less quickly.

I know it might not look like it from some of my posts but I’m keen that lay people (like me) don’t try and be wise after the event. It was March 6th that my colleagues were involved in the London LRF and I was really surprised that we (both them and as a nation) still seemed to be non-believers at that time.

I don’t think we can measure success/failure easily against any other nation. It does seem incredible that with earlier warning than most comparable nations we have found ourselves with both one of the steepest curves and one of the two curves on an ‘every day more deaths than the last (on the seven day rolling average) trajectory amongst comparable nations. I think every country should focus (including collaboratively) on what could be done better and the time for it is now, not afterwards.

The ICU capacity was/is an approved measure and JMW brought it to our attention at an early stage as being a critical measure(from the IC model I believe?). We now have a situation though where we hear regularly that there is ICU capacity, whilst at the same time people are dying outside of hospital, not because they couldn’t get to hospital but because they don’t meet the criteria for treatment. I understand why but it is brutal and should be acknowledged, rather than swept under the carpet. The daily briefings should be about owning it, (think Cuomo and to a lesser extent Sturgeon) and not trying to spin it in to a positive.

I hope all is well with the new baby and you’re all getting some sleep.

On the 5ht march the deaths in Italy were still less than 200. It looked like Italy was a massive outlier in Europe, most were very old and they had just announced school closures for a period of just 2 weeks. No one really knew much at all. Its just over a month ago and so it's not surprising that people here didn't appreciate the seriousness and were more or less business as usual.

So I'm pretty confident that 99% of critical stuff written is being wise after the event. Over the last 3 weeks or so, that's just 3 weeks,  there are many legitimate logistical and mobilisation questions for govt about response, ppe, rate of testing amongst other things once the die was cast. On the severity of lockdown there is no right answer, only opinions.

I don't think that is right.  I posted something on the 6th March about a million cases a week by May.   It is pretty clear that the Government was getting briefings about the potential seriousness before this date.   They have released papers from several weeks prior to this date.

I don't think it is easy though.   Many people moaned about the measures imposed here when they happened, so I think we can guess what the backlash would have been if we moved to total shutdown after a couple of deaths.  

[kukushkin88]

Also totally ridiculous to measure our response as the worst in the world and it's why your opinions look silly.

There's a few broad categories in response

Theres good Asian response. Say Singapore Taiwan.
There's liars - say Iran, china
There's 'good' western response, say Germany Austria Denmark.
The rest in Europe, Italy France UK etc.

There is no consistency across any 2 nations in terms of reporting and most of the world isn't tracking this the way the open Western democracies are. Saying ours is the worst response in this tiny snapshot period of the whole crisis is meaningless and purely politically driven whether the reader is a tory fan boy or not.

It surely makes more sense to limit the analysis of our response to comparable nations, acknowledging that even this is of limited value. Even the people trying to make the U.K. look bad have generously not pointed out that Germany and France are very much the most comparable nations across a range of metrics. The things that have compromised our response relative to those two nations are political. It was a political choice to have the smallest ICU capacity of any large European nation, it was a political choice to have our National Health Service understaffed by 100,000 FTE. It’s a political choice to have enfeebled our economy with Brexit, it’s also enfeebled our nation in terms of political leadership. It’s a political choice to have cut funding to Local Authorities by 40/60% over ~10 years.

Your post seems quite angry, to be clear, I wasn’t putting you in the Tory fanboy category. I understand if it’s the general premise of my posts that has annoyed you. I’m a bit surprised if you think my opinions look silly but good to have feedback.

[Doobs]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

It’s time to revisit the ICU capacity as the sole measure of success idea. Best projections say we must be over a thousand deaths (it must be lots more but it’s an ok conservative estimation) now of people who didn’t even make it to hospital. Crowing about spare ICU capacity doesn’t seem right in the situation.

I don't think anyone said it was the sole measure of success did they? (Happy to be corrected on this, some of you guys are following the detail of this a lot more closely than I)

It's a hugely important measure of how the country is up-scaling ICU capacity and reducing the demand on it?

It's very sad that people are dying before making it to hospital but that should be another separate measure.

Do you think the deaths/infections are flattening Kush? If we achieve a similar curve to Italy without the harsh lock down would that not be a success?

For what its worth I agree that things should have been done earlier, the lack of control at airports and now lack of PPE for NHS are two of the things I just don't get.

Good morning

We’ll know a lot more about the curve on Wednesday/Thursday of this week (based on reporting patterns). For sure it seems to be levelling out/accelerating less quickly.

I know it might not look like it from some of my posts but I’m keen that lay people (like me) don’t try and be wise after the event. It was March 6th that my colleagues were involved in the London LRF and I was really surprised that we (both them and as a nation) still seemed to be non-believers at that time.

I don’t think we can measure success/failure easily against any other nation. It does seem incredible that with earlier warning than most comparable nations we have found ourselves with both one of the steepest curves and one of the two curves on an ‘every day more deaths than the last (on the seven day rolling average) trajectory amongst comparable nations. I think every country should focus (including collaboratively) on what could be done better and the time for it is now, not afterwards.

The ICU capacity was/is an approved measure and JMW brought it to our attention at an early stage as being a critical measure(from the IC model I believe?). We now have a situation though where we hear regularly that there is ICU capacity, whilst at the same time people are dying outside of hospital, not because they couldn’t get to hospital but because they don’t meet the criteria for treatment. I understand why but it is brutal and should be acknowledged, rather than swept under the carpet. The daily briefings should be about owning it, (think Cuomo and to a lesser extent Sturgeon) and not trying to spin it in to a positive.

I hope all is well with the new baby and you’re all getting some sleep.

On the 5ht march the deaths in Italy were still less than 200. It looked like Italy was a massive outlier in Europe, most were very old and they had just announced school closures for a period of just 2 weeks. No one really knew much at all. Its just over a month ago and so it's not surprising that people here didn't appreciate the seriousness and were more or less business as usual.

So I'm pretty confident that 99% of critical stuff written is being wise after the event. Over the last 3 weeks or so, that's just 3 weeks,  there are many legitimate logistical and mobilisation questions for govt about response, ppe, rate of testing amongst other things once the die was cast. On the severity of lockdown there is no right answer, only opinions.

Morning,

We could get my friends/colleagues to come and give testimony to the forum >jokes<. I foolishly (given my own medical situation) went for lunch with them after the LRF meeting and no doubt I would have been a dissenting voice if I had been present at the forum. They were pretty much giving me grief for scaremongering. Once it was established in Italy, there was no reason why we would be different.

Then you can put yourself in the 1%.

From the 5th March. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1235501769007992832

[kukushkin88]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/12/uk-coronavirus-deaths-preventable-government-account

https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1249405601978998785?s=21

Trying to make it about my political view is just deflecting from the reality of an extraordinary failure from the government and their cheerleaders in the media.

The Telegraph headlines are shocking, it’s only 7-8 years ago it was still a respected newspaper. It’s not materially different from the Mail or Express now.

It’s time to revisit the ICU capacity as the sole measure of success idea. Best projections say we must be over a thousand deaths (it must be lots more but it’s an ok conservative estimation) now of people who didn’t even make it to hospital. Crowing about spare ICU capacity doesn’t seem right in the situation.

I don't think anyone said it was the sole measure of success did they? (Happy to be corrected on this, some of you guys are following the detail of this a lot more closely than I)

It's a hugely important measure of how the country is up-scaling ICU capacity and reducing the demand on it?

It's very sad that people are dying before making it to hospital but that should be another separate measure.

Do you think the deaths/infections are flattening Kush? If we achieve a similar curve to Italy without the harsh lock down would that not be a success?

For what its worth I agree that things should have been done earlier, the lack of control at airports and now lack of PPE for NHS are two of the things I just don't get.

Good morning

We’ll know a lot more about the curve on Wednesday/Thursday of this week (based on reporting patterns). For sure it seems to be levelling out/accelerating less quickly.

I know it might not look like it from some of my posts but I’m keen that lay people (like me) don’t try and be wise after the event. It was March 6th that my colleagues were involved in the London LRF and I was really surprised that we (both them and as a nation) still seemed to be non-believers at that time.

I don’t think we can measure success/failure easily against any other nation. It does seem incredible that with earlier warning than most comparable nations we have found ourselves with both one of the steepest curves and one of the two curves on an ‘every day more deaths than the last (on the seven day rolling average) trajectory amongst comparable nations. I think every country should focus (including collaboratively) on what could be done better and the time for it is now, not afterwards.

The ICU capacity was/is an approved measure and JMW brought it to our attention at an early stage as being a critical measure(from the IC model I believe?). We now have a situation though where we hear regularly that there is ICU capacity, whilst at the same time people are dying outside of hospital, not because they couldn’t get to hospital but because they don’t meet the criteria for treatment. I understand why but it is brutal and should be acknowledged, rather than swept under the carpet. The daily briefings should be about owning it, (think Cuomo and to a lesser extent Sturgeon) and not trying to spin it in to a positive.

I hope all is well with the new baby and you’re all getting some sleep.

On the 5ht march the deaths in Italy were still less than 200. It looked like Italy was a massive outlier in Europe, most were very old and they had just announced school closures for a period of just 2 weeks. No one really knew much at all. Its just over a month ago and so it's not surprising that people here didn't appreciate the seriousness and were more or less business as usual.

So I'm pretty confident that 99% of critical stuff written is being wise after the event. Over the last 3 weeks or so, that's just 3 weeks,  there are many legitimate logistical and mobilisation questions for govt about response, ppe, rate of testing amongst other things once the die was cast. On the severity of lockdown there is no right answer, only opinions.

I don't think that is right.  I posted something on the 6th March about a million cases a week by May.   It is pretty clear that the Government was getting briefings about the potential seriousness before this date.   They have released papers from several weeks prior to this date.

I don't think it is easy though.   Many people moaned about the measures imposed here when they happened, so I think we can guess what the backlash would have been if we moved to total shutdown after a couple of deaths.  

This highlights a key part of the problem, with Boris and Trump, policy will be driven by populism first. What is best for the nation will always be given a lower priority. Thankfully every now and then, what’s best for the country and what’s popular will be the same thing but the US and U.K. are doing well by most measures under populist leaders atm.