COVID19

[Marky147]

I saw that about Moderna, and wasn't it something along the lines of them being able to use studies from the last 10 years with other SARS/MERS meant they got there so quickly?

[teddybloat]

"As Hotez explained to me, the major reason this vaccine timeline has shrunk is that much of the research and preclinical animal testing was done in the aftermath of the 2003 SARS pandemic (that is, for instance, how we knew to target the spike protein). This would be the model. Scientists have a very clear sense of which virus families have pandemic potential, and given the resemblance of those viruses, can develop not only vaccines for all of them but also ones that could easily be tweaked to respond to new variants within those families."

[nirvana]

Really interesting read, cheers

[Marky147]

"As Hotez explained to me, the major reason this vaccine timeline has shrunk is that much of the research and preclinical animal testing was done in the aftermath of the 2003 SARS pandemic (that is, for instance, how we knew to target the spike protein). This would be the model. Scientists have a very clear sense of which virus families have pandemic potential, and given the resemblance of those viruses, can develop not only vaccines for all of them but also ones that could easily be tweaked to respond to new variants within those families."

Just reading the link now, missed it first scan 

Cheers!

[Marky147]

My more juvenile side is hoping they make it mandatory, if you want to do any travelling etc.

Just so I can sit back with my kingsize bag of popcorn and watch the FB/Twitter streets for a few days

[Doobs]

My more juvenile side is hoping they make it mandatory, if you want to do any travelling etc.

Just so I can sit back with my kingsize bag of popcorn and watch the FB/Twitter streets for a few days

These scardicats are usually the first to throw the term snowflake around.

I don't think they will make it mandatory, but would be smiling along too if they do.  I think next summer still looks doubtful, but WSOP 2022 needs to happen. 

[Marky147]

My more juvenile side is hoping they make it mandatory, if you want to do any travelling etc.

Just so I can sit back with my kingsize bag of popcorn and watch the FB/Twitter streets for a few days

These scardicats are usually the first to throw the term snowflake around.

I don't think they will make it mandatory, but would be smiling along too if they do.  I think next summer still looks doubtful, but WSOP 2022 needs to happen. 

Matt Glantz is a great source of amusement on Twitter, as he has people losing their minds about anything and everything.

I don't think they will either, just some places might impose ancillary restrictions until it's completely under control. Should be good to watch a few heads explode, reagardless.

[4KSuited]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-54880084


My daughter is studying Population Health at UCL (London, but remotely iykwim) and has unreservedly told me that the Pfizer Biontec vaccine is the one to go with if given a choice. In her words, “it’s cool”. Reassuringly, I’m a long way down the list of priorities, and I’m cool about that.

[Doobs]

ONS has sent this out today

Of the 3,040 deaths involving #COVID19, 86.7% had this recorded as the underlying cause of death.

Of the 2,693 deaths involving influenza and pneumonia, 10.6% had these as the underlying cause

I was discussing this the other week and not sure if I mentioned it here.  The deaths with Covid are usually caused by Covid (nearly 9 in 10); the deaths with pneumonia and flu are usually caused by something else (only 1 in 10 have flu or pneumonia as the underlying cause).   

https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1336242789869350912

If people haven't seen the priority group order they are here.

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1336043642507710467

There is a discussion on the covid actuaries response group where it shows that the priority group appear to be in the right order.  See here

https://www.covid-arg.com/bulletins

[Marky147]

Poor texutree got himself tied up.

https://twitter.com/texutree/status/1336289273293762560

See old Ivor at it with his clickbaity begging on there, too.

Someone asked where they could donate money to him, and some guy just basically ripped his a Ahrtrguments apart

[Marky147]

No surprise to see him retweeting Ivor, and good old 'Georg #nomask'

[Doobs]

Poor texutree got himself tied up.

https://twitter.com/texutree/status/1336289273293762560

See old Ivor at it with his clickbaity begging on there, too.

Someone asked where they could donate money to him, and some guy just basically ripped his a Ahrtrguments apart

Problem is it is in a tiny part of the internet, and the more controversial people get more views/cash.  For instance I know Ivor is on Patreon, it must pay more than biochemistry project managing work during Covid?

To be fair Stuart McDonald seems to be gathering followers and is invited on some more public events now.  They need people who can debate these issues more calmly than me.

[Doobs]

Another quick update as it is Wednesday.

Deaths were up 20% week on week on the 18 November.  That seems to be just a function of the low number the week previously, and deaths are only up about 5% a week averaging over the 7 days to that date.

On no date has the figure topped 400 a day in England and 500 a day in the UK in total (based on specimen date).  It is possible both will be slightly breached this week once the delayed reporting has worked its way through. 

The 600 death figure from yesterday is likely just a reflection of reporting delays, and I think we have likely passed the date with the highest number of deaths from this wave.  We also had a couple of days in the previous week with less than 20k cases and looking at the reported numbers from the last couple of days it seems likely that the cases are falling siginifcantly.   I'd be much happier if they waited a couple of weeks longer for the cases to decrease further before opening restaurants and pubs, but can't complain about outdoor sports and letting people spectate in smaller numbers.

FWIW I got randomly selected and my negative result took about 72 hours exactly from courier pick up.  I'd say that kind of delay seems consistent with what I see in the case reporting (most around 2 or 3 days after test). 

 

Another update as of yesterday.

I think the numbers are pretty alarming given lockdown has ended already, but guess the fact most of us are in tier 2 or 3 means that things haven't changed much (ie the lockdown/not lockdown states are much closer to each other than they were in March).

Wednesday's number was 15% below last week, but every day between 17 November and 24 November had a higher number of deaths than the same date in the week before.  So I think it is very possible that this was a bit of an outlier and there was zero significant evidence that deaths had begun to fall.  When the first lockdown ended English deaths were down to 31 a day at the effective end (3 July).  This time the number of deaths at lockdown end is likely to be between 300 and 400 a day (I can't say the exact number, as only a small proportion of deaths are reported in the first couple of days).   

The cases figures are more promising with a handful of dates where we have dropped below 15k cases in the UK.  But Monday's number of 17k isn't a whole lot below the 31.5k we hit at peak 4 weeks previously, and we had a couple of days below 20k in that week.  So cases were defintely down since the peak, but were not down by a hugely significant amount (maybe 30% or so).     

I saw someone yesterday suggesting that we were well on the way to wave 3, as we had ended this lockdown too early.  I think a better way of looking at it is that wave 2 isn't really going to end anytime soon and the reality is we bump along at 300 deaths a day until the vaccination rate in the elderly and medical workers becomes significant.  Given that we, and every other Country?) has failed to keep cases/deaths steady over this year, this "plan" seems like some gamble and we may not have reached a wave 2/3 peak yet after all.
 
To balance this, the rest of Europe looks like it is dragging its feet on vaccine approval, so the UK Government may actually be doing something right here.  Assuming that we don't mind the tiny microchips Bill Gates is putting in our arms...

I have just expanded my spreadsheet for the week. 

I was originally looking how we were going vs the projections and we are well below all of them now.  This shouldn't be much of a surprise as the projections didn't assume we had a lockdown.  I probably won't mention them again other than to say that I have been concentrating on England only for deaths because that was in the original Spectator comparison.

Deaths by date of death (England).  Deaths were definitely down in the week leading up to last Wednesday.  Deaths were above 400  for the last time on 25 November.  This was the 4th time this has happened during "wave 2".  Since then they have fallen to nearer 300 a day. 

Cases by specimen date (UK).  The downward trend I mentioned last week seems to have ended with all dates beween 30 Novemnber and 4 December staying above 15K.  There is no obvious significant uptick in cases yet, but if you look at the fitted curve on those numbers it is currently sloping upwards again.

Hospital Admissions.  I haven't mentioned these much, but the Covid 19 response group pointed out yesterday that these have started increasing again and they hacve stated that they think R is above 1 again.  https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1336360909443375104  . 

There are some interesting regional comparisons there, with admissions falling noticeably in the North West and North East; these areas have effectively had the longest lockdowns (some was tier 3 and not "lockdown", but they amount to much the same thing).  By comparison the areas with the softest restrictions seem to be all significantly rising again.

Overall the picture isn't very optimistic, and gven the expected weakening of restrictions going into Christmas looks like it could lead to some unpleasant numbers by the beginning off January.  You'd have to be pretty set in your ways to still believe that these restrictions don't have any effect, and you'd have to be pretty optimistic to think restrictions will be ending on 9 February. 

The roll out of the vaccine is very much needed right now.

[Marky147]

Poor texutree got himself tied up.

https://twitter.com/texutree/status/1336289273293762560

See old Ivor at it with his clickbaity begging on there, too.

Someone asked where they could donate money to him, and some guy just basically ripped his a Ahrtrguments apart

Problem is it is in a tiny part of the internet, and the more controversial people get more views/cash.  For instance I know Ivor is on Patreon, it must pay more than biochemistry project managing work during Covid?

To be fair Stuart McDonald seems to be gathering followers and is invited on some more public events now.  They need people who can debate these issues more calmly than me.

Just had a quick look, and he's making at least £5k a month on there, but hardly posts. Annoys me even more knowing that, especiallly when he's purposefully disingenous.

Yeah, I've started following him and a couple others in those threads on his Twitter, hope he does. Need more people who just work with numbers as they are, and not just fiddle them to get themselves on Hartley-Brewer's radio show 

[Doobs]

Poor texutree got himself tied up.

https://twitter.com/texutree/status/1336289273293762560

See old Ivor at it with his clickbaity begging on there, too.

Someone asked where they could donate money to him, and some guy just basically ripped his a Ahrtrguments apart

Ivor again.  This is quality, just saw someone rewteet this.

https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1335971761733722113

It is clearly just an appointment card letting the person know when they need to come back for the 2nd shot.

I didn't get one with my flu shot as I didn't need to go back, but get one from my dentist every time I go.  I used to even have a card booklet, with all my travel vaccines/innoculations in too, back when my life was more interresting.  

Wait until Ivor sees what they make us carry round for our kids; we get a whole book full of vaccine records and it is red too, the sick communist bastards.  Now I think about it, there is probably a chip in it controlling our brains.  This has clearly been planned for over 10 years...