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« Reply #630 on: March 21, 2020, 12:14:19 AM »

I think Johnson has been fine in the press conferences, in a very difficult spot. The idea that they are handling it well is ridiculous though. We had the most warning of any of the large western nations and our graph looks for sure that we’ll top the death numbers given the current trajectory and the  timing of the limited measures that we have put in place. We keep hearing it’s a balance between the economy and preserving life, we seem perfectly placed to be worst on both.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Check the pound against the euro/dollar in the last month, it’s a massacre. It’s hard for the pound and the FTSE to fall of a cliff at the same time but we’re managing it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp


Maybe we have had a bad strategy and maybe we will do comparatively badly.

But it's way, way too early to have any idea at all about either.

Economically we're in a terrible position because of the weakness we have because of Brexit (I think, doesn't seem too much of a stretch) - that's the fault of the current government but has nothing to do with their handling of this epidemic.

Medically we're not going to have a decent amount of data to analyse for about 5 years. If we do badly in a first wave then better in subsequent waves the overall effect could be that we have the fewest casualties.

But even the longer term data won't be clearcut; even if you use the absolutely perfect strategy to deal with the epidemic but you have a much higher proportion of vulnerable patients and/or a much lower ICU capacity your figures are going to be worse than a country using a sub-optimal strategy but with better variables.

The latter of these might still be the responsibility of the current government - but again, still isn't anything to do with the quality of their strategy.

The differing variables vary so wildly between countries that the optimal strategy is probably (at least slightly) different for every country, there are so many input and output variables that it's almost certainly impossible to know for certain how much better or worse any country could have done apart from in the very broadest of terms; and certainly not for quite a while.

I don't think your conclusion is correct.  I don't think there is much point in slamming Boris Johnson because tackling a fast moving virus in real time is clearly very difficult.  I think we agree there.  I am not going to knock the fiscal response either because they could have done other things, but they have had to put together something in very short order.  I also agree on Brexit, as with hindsight we wouln't have started from there, but so what?

But it is clear already that the likes of Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong have tackled this better so far, and I think it is equally clear that the USA have performed worse until now (how useful was that GBP:USD chart as an indicator of this?).  

I think South Korea gives us all hope because they got in a really bad situation very quickly,and have got back to a stable position impressively.  China have done remarkably well given they had far less information about an appropriate response than the rest of us.  That needs an asterisk because of the original supression, but that seems a bit of hindsight thinking, as they aren't the first country to hide something unpleasant.

I don't think a lot of the variables make that much difference.  The amount of people infected grows so quickly that every country's health system will be overwhelmed without taking the appropriate short term actions.  So the benefit of having twice as many ICU beds or doctors won't make a lot of diffference if you let the virus runaway.  If you have five times as many intensive care patients than you have beds in ICUs then the end result is much the same as having ten times as many; ie many of your patients will die).  

If you are a Country with a very good health system, but act 3 days later, then in the short term aren't you in the same situation as a country that has half as many beds? (because you have doubled your potential patients).  You can apply the same logic to numbers of doctors, nurses and ventilators.

Away from all that I am hugely impressed with what coughing child's school have done for her.  They have given them all a pack which tells them what they have to do daily, weekly and monthly for maths, english, spelling, projects etc. and 3 books for her to read which are all ones she would have chosen herself.  They must have put these together at very short notice.  Each pack also contains an easter egg, which is just such a nice touch.   I am sure they won't be perfect, but I don't think that matters too much.  They are also going to be updating us by email of anything additional they need to do.  I was genuinely worried we'd have to put much more effort into filling their days, but she must have weeks of schoolwork already.  

In some of the private sector frims I have worked for, given the same timescale, we'd still be trying to arrange a meeting time where all of us could attend.

Anyway good night, best get to bed.
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« Reply #631 on: March 21, 2020, 12:47:20 AM »

My cousin and her husband are both key workers with primary school age kids. They are telling the school that one of them isn’t a key worker in order to keep the kids at hone. I bet there are parents doing the exact opposite  Wink

My wife is an administrator for the local hospital and they are banning all leave for the next two months and cancelling all non-essential things and moving everyone to front-line services ready for the influx. They are looking to utilize all buildings that will therefore not be used by Turning them into wards soon. They seemed to be getting well prepared so let’s hope enough retired workers risk their lives to come back and help, and there is enough equipment and PPE too.

Stay safe and sensible everyone, let’s hope the greed buying stops soon Ebay etc need to stamp out all this profiteering.
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« Reply #632 on: March 21, 2020, 02:19:47 AM »

My cousin and her husband are both key workers with primary school age kids. They are telling the school that one of them isn’t a key worker in order to keep the kids at hone. I bet there are parents doing the exact opposite  Wink

My wife is an administrator for the local hospital and they are banning all leave for the next two months and cancelling all non-essential things and moving everyone to front-line services ready for the influx. They are looking to utilize all buildings that will therefore not be used by Turning them into wards soon. They seemed to be getting well prepared so let’s hope enough retired workers risk their lives to come back and help, and there is enough equipment and PPE too.

Stay safe and sensible everyone, let’s hope the greed buying stops soon Ebay etc need to stamp out all this profiteering.

NHS are not even close to having the required PPE, most wards in my Trust do not have enough to last a day.
Absolutely fk all for staff either, other than self isolate at the first sign of a sniffle. The recently retired staff I know have all said 'sod that' to coming back to work. Most people seem to not realise that 40yrs of working shifts has left most NHS workers bodies/health fucked.
NHS should be fast tracking temp staff, particularly aiming at those who currently have no work due to so much getting shut down
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« Reply #633 on: March 21, 2020, 06:32:26 AM »

At least the government have been quick to fast track almost qualified doctors and nurses to shove them into action. I can see that being extended out to second year under grad nurses, and not just doctors who are In their final year. Their quals/graduation will have to be paused as we need these professionals at the front line.
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« Reply #634 on: March 21, 2020, 06:47:24 AM »

I think Johnson has been fine in the press conferences, in a very difficult spot. The idea that they are handling it well is ridiculous though. We had the most warning of any of the large western nations and our graph looks for sure that we’ll top the death numbers given the current trajectory and the  timing of the limited measures that we have put in place. We keep hearing it’s a balance between the economy and preserving life, we seem perfectly placed to be worst on both.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Check the pound against the euro/dollar in the last month, it’s a massacre. It’s hard for the pound and the FTSE to fall of a cliff at the same time but we’re managing it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp


Maybe we have had a bad strategy and maybe we will do comparatively badly.

But it's way, way too early to have any idea at all about either.

Economically we're in a terrible position because of the weakness we have because of Brexit (I think, doesn't seem too much of a stretch) - that's the fault of the current government but has nothing to do with their handling of this epidemic.

Medically we're not going to have a decent amount of data to analyse for about 5 years. If we do badly in a first wave then better in subsequent waves the overall effect could be that we have the fewest casualties.

But even the longer term data won't be clearcut; even if you use the absolutely perfect strategy to deal with the epidemic but you have a much higher proportion of vulnerable patients and/or a much lower ICU capacity your figures are going to be worse than a country using a sub-optimal strategy but with better variables.

The latter of these might still be the responsibility of the current government - but again, still isn't anything to do with the quality of their strategy.

The differing variables vary so wildly between countries that the optimal strategy is probably (at least slightly) different for every country, there are so many input and output variables that it's almost certainly impossible to know for certain how much better or worse any country could have done apart from in the very broadest of terms; and certainly not for quite a while.

I don't think your conclusion is correct.  I don't think there is much point in slamming Boris Johnson because tackling a fast moving virus in real time is clearly very difficult.  I think we agree there.  I am not going to knock the fiscal response either because they could have done other things, but they have had to put together something in very short order.  I also agree on Brexit, as with hindsight we wouln't have started from there, but so what?

But it is clear already that the likes of Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong have tackled this better so far, and I think it is equally clear that the USA have performed worse until now (how useful was that GBP:USD chart as an indicator of this?).  

I think South Korea gives us all hope because they got in a really bad situation very quickly,and have got back to a stable position impressively.  China have done remarkably well given they had far less information about an appropriate response than the rest of us.  That needs an asterisk because of the original supression, but that seems a bit of hindsight thinking, as they aren't the first country to hide something unpleasant.

I don't think a lot of the variables make that much difference.  The amount of people infected grows so quickly that every country's health system will be overwhelmed without taking the appropriate short term actions.  So the benefit of having twice as many ICU beds or doctors won't make a lot of diffference if you let the virus runaway.  If you have five times as many intensive care patients than you have beds in ICUs then the end result is much the same as having ten times as many; ie many of your patients will die).  

If you are a Country with a very good health system, but act 3 days later, then in the short term aren't you in the same situation as a country that has half as many beds? (because you have doubled your potential patients).  You can apply the same logic to numbers of doctors, nurses and ventilators.

Away from all that I am hugely impressed with what coughing child's school have done for her.  They have given them all a pack which tells them what they have to do daily, weekly and monthly for maths, english, spelling, projects etc. and 3 books for her to read which are all ones she would have chosen herself.  They must have put these together at very short notice.  Each pack also contains an easter egg, which is just such a nice touch.   I am sure they won't be perfect, but I don't think that matters too much.  They are also going to be updating us by email of anything additional they need to do.  I was genuinely worried we'd have to put much more effort into filling their days, but she must have weeks of schoolwork already.  

In some of the private sector frims I have worked for, given the same timescale, we'd still be trying to arrange a meeting time where all of us could attend.

Anyway good night, best get to bed.

"...But it is clear already that the likes of Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong have tackled this better so far,..." It is not 100% clear that they have because we don't know how well or badly they will be hit by any resurgence - you should also add Japan to this list.

And even if they are qualititavely doing better it's not necessarily something other countries can replicate - they are all small islands (S Korea has such a tight border with the North that it might as well be an island) - they also have experience of dealing with pandemics at this level and, for example, Japan in particular already has a culture of non contact and high health and hygiene standards - plus a whole lot more; there are too many input variables and many of them are not applicable to every other country, and not all of them are possible for every other country.

"The amount of people infected grows so quickly that every country's health system will be overwhelmed without taking the appropriate short term actions.  So the benefit of having twice as many ICU beds or doctors won't make a lot of diffference if you let the virus runaway"

No, that's the point of the mitigation strategy - that's why the mitigation strategy was used to combat every flu pandemic for the last 100 years. Absolutely zero countries have taken no short term actions and let the virus runaway; we tried to isolate every person who got the infection and trace and isolate/test/quarantine those they had been in contact with (for example) - this is where the Asian countries have an advantage, their experience in having done it before means they could do it better than we could. To reiterate; acknowledging people are going to get infected and to some extent letting (non-vulnerable) people get infected is not the same as letting the virus runaway. It's the ultimate in human hubris to imagine that we can just super lockdown from day 1 and stop a microsopic particle from spreading.

"If you are a Country with a very good health system, but act 3 days later, then in the short term aren't you in the same situation as a country that has half as many beds? (because you have doubled your potential patients).  You can apply the same logic to numbers of doctors, nurses and ventilators."

To reinforce - no government (deliberately) did nothing; the actions they have taken are aimed at getting those 'extra' patients as being ones who will not need ICU treatement. The entire strategy evinced in the Imperial paper is how to keep demand for ICU under the available level of supply - and sometimes that means letting the infection spread more. China can feasibly lock down an entire region for an extended period because they are an authoritarian superpower but what they did was not even a full lockdown for the entire period; and they are the only place where they can feasibly just repeat it under future outbreaks - we cannot do that. We have to let a certain amount of people get infected, the only question is 'who' gets infected and 'when'.
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« Reply #635 on: March 21, 2020, 08:18:12 AM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/Pepys_Diaries

Not sure how long he can keep this up, but a promising start
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« Reply #636 on: March 21, 2020, 08:21:32 AM »

Lots of scientific evidence the Government has been using has been published here.

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

I haven't read it all yet, but if people have a spare few hours...
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« Reply #637 on: March 21, 2020, 08:33:42 AM »

I think Johnson has been fine in the press conferences, in a very difficult spot. The idea that they are handling it well is ridiculous though. We had the most warning of any of the large western nations and our graph looks for sure that we’ll top the death numbers given the current trajectory and the  timing of the limited measures that we have put in place. We keep hearing it’s a balance between the economy and preserving life, we seem perfectly placed to be worst on both.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Check the pound against the euro/dollar in the last month, it’s a massacre. It’s hard for the pound and the FTSE to fall of a cliff at the same time but we’re managing it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp


Maybe we have had a bad strategy and maybe we will do comparatively badly.

But it's way, way too early to have any idea at all about either.

Economically we're in a terrible position because of the weakness we have because of Brexit (I think, doesn't seem too much of a stretch) - that's the fault of the current government but has nothing to do with their handling of this epidemic.

Medically we're not going to have a decent amount of data to analyse for about 5 years. If we do badly in a first wave then better in subsequent waves the overall effect could be that we have the fewest casualties.

But even the longer term data won't be clearcut; even if you use the absolutely perfect strategy to deal with the epidemic but you have a much higher proportion of vulnerable patients and/or a much lower ICU capacity your figures are going to be worse than a country using a sub-optimal strategy but with better variables.

The latter of these might still be the responsibility of the current government - but again, still isn't anything to do with the quality of their strategy.

The differing variables vary so wildly between countries that the optimal strategy is probably (at least slightly) different for every country, there are so many input and output variables that it's almost certainly impossible to know for certain how much better or worse any country could have done apart from in the very broadest of terms; and certainly not for quite a while.

I don't think your conclusion is correct.  I don't think there is much point in slamming Boris Johnson because tackling a fast moving virus in real time is clearly very difficult.  I think we agree there.  I am not going to knock the fiscal response either because they could have done other things, but they have had to put together something in very short order.  I also agree on Brexit, as with hindsight we wouln't have started from there, but so what?

But it is clear already that the likes of Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong have tackled this better so far, and I think it is equally clear that the USA have performed worse until now (how useful was that GBP:USD chart as an indicator of this?).  

I think South Korea gives us all hope because they got in a really bad situation very quickly,and have got back to a stable position impressively.  China have done remarkably well given they had far less information about an appropriate response than the rest of us.  That needs an asterisk because of the original supression, but that seems a bit of hindsight thinking, as they aren't the first country to hide something unpleasant.

I don't think a lot of the variables make that much difference.  The amount of people infected grows so quickly that every country's health system will be overwhelmed without taking the appropriate short term actions.  So the benefit of having twice as many ICU beds or doctors won't make a lot of diffference if you let the virus runaway.  If you have five times as many intensive care patients than you have beds in ICUs then the end result is much the same as having ten times as many; ie many of your patients will die).  

If you are a Country with a very good health system, but act 3 days later, then in the short term aren't you in the same situation as a country that has half as many beds? (because you have doubled your potential patients).  You can apply the same logic to numbers of doctors, nurses and ventilators.

Away from all that I am hugely impressed with what coughing child's school have done for her.  They have given them all a pack which tells them what they have to do daily, weekly and monthly for maths, english, spelling, projects etc. and 3 books for her to read which are all ones she would have chosen herself.  They must have put these together at very short notice.  Each pack also contains an easter egg, which is just such a nice touch.   I am sure they won't be perfect, but I don't think that matters too much.  They are also going to be updating us by email of anything additional they need to do.  I was genuinely worried we'd have to put much more effort into filling their days, but she must have weeks of schoolwork already.  

In some of the private sector frims I have worked for, given the same timescale, we'd still be trying to arrange a meeting time where all of us could attend.

Anyway good night, best get to bed.

"...But it is clear already that the likes of Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong have tackled this better so far,..." It is not 100% clear that they have because we don't know how well or badly they will be hit by any resurgence - you should also add Japan to this list.

And even if they are qualititavely doing better it's not necessarily something other countries can replicate - they are all small islands (S Korea has such a tight border with the North that it might as well be an island) - they also have experience of dealing with pandemics at this level and, for example, Japan in particular already has a culture of non contact and high health and hygiene standards - plus a whole lot more; there are too many input variables and many of them are not applicable to every other country, and not all of them are possible for every other country.

"The amount of people infected grows so quickly that every country's health system will be overwhelmed without taking the appropriate short term actions.  So the benefit of having twice as many ICU beds or doctors won't make a lot of diffference if you let the virus runaway"

No, that's the point of the mitigation strategy - that's why the mitigation strategy was used to combat every flu pandemic for the last 100 years. Absolutely zero countries have taken no short term actions and let the virus runaway; we tried to isolate every person who got the infection and trace and isolate/test/quarantine those they had been in contact with (for example) - this is where the Asian countries have an advantage, their experience in having done it before means they could do it better than we could. To reiterate; acknowledging people are going to get infected and to some extent letting (non-vulnerable) people get infected is not the same as letting the virus runaway. It's the ultimate in human hubris to imagine that we can just super lockdown from day 1 and stop a microsopic particle from spreading.

"If you are a Country with a very good health system, but act 3 days later, then in the short term aren't you in the same situation as a country that has half as many beds? (because you have doubled your potential patients).  You can apply the same logic to numbers of doctors, nurses and ventilators."

To reinforce - no government (deliberately) did nothing; the actions they have taken are aimed at getting those 'extra' patients as being ones who will not need ICU treatement. The entire strategy evinced in the Imperial paper is how to keep demand for ICU under the available level of supply - and sometimes that means letting the infection spread more. China can feasibly lock down an entire region for an extended period because they are an authoritarian superpower but what they did was not even a full lockdown for the entire period; and they are the only place where they can feasibly just repeat it under future outbreaks - we cannot do that. We have to let a certain amount of people get infected, the only question is 'who' gets infected and 'when'.

You lost me at South Korea is a small island.  They have a population in the same ballpark as us and are about half our size.  They clearly did better than us.  A lot will do worse.  

And nowhere have I ever advocated shutting everything down on day 1 or say nobody did nothing.  Just saying if you do the same things three days later you have twice the problem you had.

I think the phase 2 strategy isn't to let a certain amount of people get infected.    If they get to a
small number of people infected, they will try and be more like South Korea.  So improve contract tracing, and make better use of testing (they will have a lot more availability).  That and having more ICUs and many more ventilators.  Meantime push for a vaccine or a cure.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2020, 08:46:09 AM by Doobs » Logged

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« Reply #638 on: March 21, 2020, 08:39:03 AM »

There will be more headlines like this going forward

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/20/london-hospitals-struggle-to-cope-with-coronavirus-surge

The extend of the treatment and the use of ventilators is particularly worrying. 

Even under the Government's forecasts for the effects of their more stringent methods, the NHS will be overwhelmed for a period.  It us a question of keeping those excess deaths as low as they can and as spread out as they can.
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« Reply #639 on: March 21, 2020, 10:06:53 AM »

https://time.com/5806837/coronavirus-new-jersey-family/

Did a search to check  this didnt believe it at first. Devastating
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« Reply #640 on: March 21, 2020, 11:09:15 AM »

https://time.com/5806837/coronavirus-new-jersey-family/

Did a search to check  this didnt believe it at first. Devastating

I am pretty sure it is accurate, as I have seen it linked to elsewhere.

I saw this linked to another paper yesterday and the amount of people who quickly piped up that they already had pre-existing conditions was a bit scary.  I tried finding evidence they had pre-existing conditions and couldn't.  They may well have done, but even if they did, they would have died over a significant number of years, and wouldn't all die in a few days.

This gets to the nub of the often quoted it is all down to the frequent pre existing conditions argument (even the BBC was on it this morning).  Even if many of these people would have died within a few years, having half a million of them all die in a very short period in the summer would not be anything close to normal.  It would be horrendous for the NHS, but also for relatives, and those who will have to dispose of the bodies.   

 
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« Reply #641 on: March 21, 2020, 02:01:04 PM »

Wetherspoons have said their pubs will stay open for a further 3 weeks to give anyone who went to the toilet time to get back to the bar!




ps this may or may not be factual
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« Reply #642 on: March 21, 2020, 02:03:53 PM »

It’s hard to believe that they only did 2355 tests yesterday. The attempts to manipulate the numbers continue to go unchallenged. They do hardly any tests, it’s pointed out to them, so Boris says we’ll do “10,000” tests every day. They keep doing hardly any tests so Boris says we’ll “25,000” tests every day, a very Trumpesque approach.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview
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« Reply #643 on: March 21, 2020, 02:07:20 PM »

It’s hard to believe that they only did 2355 tests yesterday. The attempts to manipulate the numbers continue to go unchallenged. They do hardly any tests, it’s pointed out to them, so Boris says we’ll do “10,000” tests every day. They keep doing hardly any tests so Boris says we’ll “25,000” tests every day, a very Trumpesque approach.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview

It’s all Boris’ fault......
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« Reply #644 on: March 21, 2020, 04:24:54 PM »

It’s hard to believe that they only did 2355 tests yesterday. The attempts to manipulate the numbers continue to go unchallenged. They do hardly any tests, it’s pointed out to them, so Boris says we’ll do “10,000” tests every day. They keep doing hardly any tests so Boris says we’ll “25,000” tests every day, a very Trumpesque approach.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview

I'm not his biggest fan, but didn't the govt say they would aim to get to 25,000 tests eventually and wasn't that over an extended period?

Doing exactly what most politicians do, in picking parts that suit the point you're trying to make, lol.
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