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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 166472 times)
kukushkin88
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« Reply #900 on: March 28, 2020, 10:28:28 AM »

...
It would assume our lockdown measures to be more effective than China’s (35 days from 10 deaths to peak). According to JBM’s graph China locked down on day 3 post 10 deaths. We don’t have an equivalent lockdown in place, we didn’t even have anything remotely resembling a lockdown until 23rd March. It can’t really be based on anything other than wishful thinking.

Your statement would be based on the assumption that the UK and China have the same population demographics, the same health care supply, the same ICU supply, the same infrastructure, the same administrative structure, the same viral spread and many, many other factors.

I have a maths degree, and I've been employed as a statistician - I like numbers and I value statistics. But I also know it's limitations.

Just like the modelling is never expected to exactly predict real life, trying to map different countries onto each other isn't entirely helpful.

All epidemics follow the same pattern, and the responses to them all follow the same pattern - so there is going to be a lot of similarity between different countries. But once you start comparing them it means you're adding more and more and more assumptions to your model and making it less and less helpful for being able to actually be helpfully useful.

In a few years all the data can be overlaid and useful information can be learned from it - but that's going to take a lot of data and a lot of context; it's not possible as it's happening because there are just too many differing factors between countries and too many unknowns.

EDIT: and that's just aside from the fact that it's looking more and more like that's stating the lower end of the modelling prediction rather than being from a reliable source; journalists going to journalist no matter who they are.

I had been working to various assumptions. Firstly, that you had me overmatched in the maths department, no longer any doubt on that front 😊. Secondly, that an authoritarian super power would be bringing more resource in all the areas you listed than we will be able to, outside of the demography of course, as no one can control that. We do know that we are way behind all the big European nations on respirator/ICU capacity. This second one is a crude assumption but in a binary choice of will we do better or worse than China, I know which side I’m taking. I have also assumed a highish probability that China haven’t been completely honest with their numbers, I should of mentioned this assumption earlier. Another crude assumption (on a binary choice).... they would be more likely to understate than overstate the situation, if I am right, the peak was higher and probably later. Not good news for anyone.

Thanks again for helping me/us to better understand all of this.



I also assumed that success at this stage, looks like limiting the length of time and extent to which your critical care service is overwhelmed during the journey to the first peak. That one might well be a bad assumption but I would favour trying to maximise control over that, rather than trusting the modelling for what comes subsequently. Especially in nations where front life health care staff can’t be tested and don’t have adequate PPE.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #901 on: March 28, 2020, 10:31:27 AM »

The demographics, how the virus spread and the not entirely reliable numbers are the big ones.

But in relation to the original tweet, without a source its hard to avoid this looking like an Easter peak was referring to the modelling and the statement from a couple of days ago.

I think we agree. My only point (and we have caveat it with my heavy anti Conservative/right wing media view) is that his tweeting it had almost nothing to do with the current reality and everything to do with it being a popular view for the post truthers.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #902 on: March 28, 2020, 10:37:19 AM »

The demographics, how the virus spread and the not entirely reliable numbers are the big ones.

But in relation to the original tweet, without a source its hard to avoid this looking like an Easter peak was referring to the modelling and the statement from a couple of days ago.

I think we agree. My only point (and we have caveat it with my heavy anti Conservative/right wing media view) is that his tweeting it had almost nothing to do with the current reality and everything to do with it being a popular view for the post truthers.

and that when he tweeted it, he either was or believed he was, doing the governments bidding.
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« Reply #903 on: March 28, 2020, 10:46:57 AM »

The demographics, how the virus spread and the not entirely reliable numbers are the big ones.

But in relation to the original tweet, without a source its hard to avoid this looking like an Easter peak was referring to the modelling and the statement from a couple of days ago.

I think we agree. My only point (and we have caveat it with my heavy anti Conservative/right wing media view) is that his tweeting it had almost nothing to do with the current reality and everything to do with it being a popular view for the post truthers.

and that when he tweeted it, he either was or believed he was, doing the governments bidding.

The Spectator has been seriously out of step with the Government message over the last few weeks.  I don't understand why you think the Government would say one thing in public and get a small limited circulation media outlet to give the "real" message.  Why not just get Gove to stand up and say it will peak in 2 weeks?  The message gets out there much more quickly and efficiently.

I am sure the Spectator has many friends in Government, but right now it is clearly not toeing the line.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 10:55:57 AM by Doobs » Logged

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« Reply #904 on: March 28, 2020, 10:57:08 AM »

The demographics, how the virus spread and the not entirely reliable numbers are the big ones.

But in relation to the original tweet, without a source its hard to avoid this looking like an Easter peak was referring to the modelling and the statement from a couple of days ago.

I think we agree. My only point (and we have caveat it with my heavy anti Conservative/right wing media view) is that his tweeting it had almost nothing to do with the current reality and everything to do with it being a popular view for the post truthers.

and that when he tweeted it, he either was or believed he was, doing the governments bidding.

Why?

I don't understand why you'd come to this conclusion.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #905 on: March 28, 2020, 11:01:31 AM »

The demographics, how the virus spread and the not entirely reliable numbers are the big ones.

But in relation to the original tweet, without a source its hard to avoid this looking like an Easter peak was referring to the modelling and the statement from a couple of days ago.

I think we agree. My only point (and we have caveat it with my heavy anti Conservative/right wing media view) is that his tweeting it had almost nothing to do with the current reality and everything to do with it being a popular view for the post truthers.

and that when he tweeted it, he either was or believed he was, doing the governments bidding.

The Spectator has been seriously out of step with the Government message over the last few weeks.  I don't understand why you think the Government would say one thing in public and get a small limited circulation media outlet to give the "real" message.  Why not just get Gove to stand up and say it will peak in 2 weeks?  The message gets out there much more quickly and efficiently.

I am sure the Spectator has many friends in Government, but right now it is clearly not toeing the line.

It’s a seriously complex situation though isn’t it. Gove can’t say it because the deputy CMO is next to him saying we don’t know. We surely know that The Spectator and government see themselves/their interests very much aligned in the long run and they really need a consensus amongst their core  to be maintained that they haven’t made an almighty mess of this. Boris is doing a good job will be back to normal by Easter is a better message than the reality.

I don’t feel like I’m close to tinfoil hat territory on this. What do you think? 😊
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #906 on: March 28, 2020, 11:09:02 AM »

The demographics, how the virus spread and the not entirely reliable numbers are the big ones.

But in relation to the original tweet, without a source its hard to avoid this looking like an Easter peak was referring to the modelling and the statement from a couple of days ago.

I think we agree. My only point (and we have caveat it with my heavy anti Conservative/right wing media view) is that his tweeting it had almost nothing to do with the current reality and everything to do with it being a popular view for the post truthers.

and that when he tweeted it, he either was or believed he was, doing the governments bidding.

Why?

I don't understand why you'd come to this conclusion.

reason given in response to Doobs. They need to maintain the narrative that they’re doing OK on this as long as possible, people will have forgotten that the message they were pushing now by the end of the week. Certainly they will have done by the week beginning April 12th.

They obviously depend on people having short memories. Like the proud announcement this week that we had rejected EU assistance to acquire ventilators because we were “no longer in the EU”. When the whole world said ‘wtf? you f***ingclowns!!’, they said they’d lost the e-mail.
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« Reply #907 on: March 28, 2020, 11:11:28 AM »

The demographics, how the virus spread and the not entirely reliable numbers are the big ones.

But in relation to the original tweet, without a source its hard to avoid this looking like an Easter peak was referring to the modelling and the statement from a couple of days ago.

I think we agree. My only point (and we have caveat it with my heavy anti Conservative/right wing media view) is that his tweeting it had almost nothing to do with the current reality and everything to do with it being a popular view for the post truthers.

and that when he tweeted it, he either was or believed he was, doing the governments bidding.

The Spectator has been seriously out of step with the Government message over the last few weeks.  I don't understand why you think the Government would say one thing in public and get a small limited circulation media outlet to give the "real" message.  Why not just get Gove to stand up and say it will peak in 2 weeks?  The message gets out there much more quickly and efficiently.

I am sure the Spectator has many friends in Government, but right now it is clearly not toeing the line.

It’s a seriously complex situation though isn’t it. Gove can’t say it because the deputy CMO is next to him saying we don’t know. We surely know that The Spectator and government see themselves/their interests very much aligned in the long run and they really need a consensus amongst their core  to be maintained that they haven’t made an almighty mess of this. Boris is doing a good job will be back to normal by Easter is a better message than the reality.

I don’t feel like I’m close to tinfoil hat territory on this. What do you think? 😊

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« Reply #908 on: March 28, 2020, 11:51:50 AM »

Quite a few things point to the per capita numbers in the west, tinfoil hats notwithstanding, will be worse than China. Firstly you can take to the bank that the Chinese numbers are abosulte nonsense and no help whatever in comparison terms with any numbers from Europe. Also, they did take more drastic measures ie taking infected people out of their homes and isolating them rather than sending them home to infect their families.
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« Reply #909 on: March 28, 2020, 12:07:37 PM »

I think Nirvana makes a good point.

The Chinese will tell us what they want to tell us.

We can’t trust their published numbers, so comparisons border on meaningless.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #910 on: March 28, 2020, 12:22:25 PM »

I think Nirvana makes a good point.

The Chinese will tell us what they want to tell us.

We can’t trust their published numbers, so comparisons border on meaningless.

I did mention this as one of my main assumptions. If we are right, it only means our outlook is worse 😔.
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« Reply #911 on: March 28, 2020, 12:39:50 PM »

I think Nirvana makes a good point.

The Chinese will tell us what they want to tell us.

We can’t trust their published numbers, so comparisons border on meaningless.

I am sceptical about China, but we can be confident Singapore and South Korea's figures are more accurate than ours as they have tested more and traced better.  So we can be a bit sceptical about China, but don't think it matters.

FWIW We have a good indication that China really did get on top of it, as the later Wuhan flights had less positives on them (many countries tested everybody on the flight).   The data on this was available in the scientific papers I linked to the other day.

I'd say that on our headline number of infections there is a really good chance out headline infections are more understated than China's.  I'd certainly take that side in a bet. 
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« Reply #912 on: March 28, 2020, 01:45:13 PM »

Chinese mobile phone subscriber numbers dropped by 21 million in the last quarter. They've been increasing for the last three years.
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nirvana
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« Reply #913 on: March 28, 2020, 01:58:07 PM »

I think Nirvana makes a good point.

The Chinese will tell us what they want to tell us.

We can’t trust their published numbers, so comparisons border on meaningless.

I did mention this as one of my main assumptions. If we are right, it only means our outlook is worse 😔.

Our outlook is worse
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Doobs
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« Reply #914 on: March 28, 2020, 02:20:14 PM »

Chinese mobile phone subscriber numbers dropped by 21 million in the last quarter. They've been increasing for the last three years.

I assume they have been increasing for longer.

People could just be cutting back?  I have a second subscription that I got when my broadband failed last year.  One of those luxuries I am not keeping long if I don't work.  21 million sounds a lot, but I just read they have 1.6 billion subscribers between the companies, so a) there is clearly some duplication of services and b) it really isn't a large drop off proportionally.  I assume their mobile sales are reaching saturation too, as we have been in the UK.  So it doesn't look like evidence of anything untoward, as some people have implied.

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