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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 23077 times)
kukushkin88
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« Reply #840 on: March 27, 2020, 09:25:30 AM »


The 15:08 update appears to confirm that they are going to manipulate our figures in a way to ensure we can’t assess success/failure of government inaction and that we can’t be compared in a meaningful way to other nations. Not exactly helpful in tackling the problem.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52044452

The fuller story, if accurate on PM with Super Evan, is that yesterday's numbers covered 12 hours with the intention of transitioning to a regular report at 2pm each day for deaths to midnight the prior day. Today's numbers are expected to reflect 36 hours and from tomorrow a regular 24 hour number

So expect a big jump today - take an approx average for a 24 hour period or do what you like with the number and then from tomorrow should be a regular thing.

Just been to B & Q click and collect, confirmed that tinfoil hats in very short supply currently

Thanks for the info. I’m aware I’m closer than I’ve ever been before to needing a tinfoil hat (and a cat in a tinfoil hat) on this. Let’s wait and see the next numbers.

New numbers are below.  Deaths up over 100 a day.  The reason for yesterday's result (based on 8 hours) was because the methodology changed.  You can put your tinfoil hat away and stand down.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52056534


Yep, consider me stood down, the tinfoil can stay in the pantry for now. I’d say that to suspect Johnson/Cummings of dishonesty and be wrong is definitely a black swan but there are a multitude of reasons why these numbers will be hard to corrupt.
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aaron1867
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« Reply #841 on: March 27, 2020, 09:51:17 AM »

I think some folk are taking my posts out of context and trying to be a bit patronising. I know how this whole works, apart from the self-employed stuff.

I am essentially saying that the systems are open to abuse by a very small minority. The meetings I have been in have come to the conclusion that it will happen. Businesses and ministers have said the same. Who'd have thought that someone who didn't live at Grenfell Tower could get tens of thousands?

I know a small family business (probably 20+ employees) and one of the employees is on a round the world trip of some sort. He's on good terms with the business and the two families are very close. The owner has told me he is going to pay him, even though he has left. I think this will happen quite a lot or of something similar if hey left pretty soon.

As for these business loans, I think this is where most of the abuse will come from. Any business, if they so wish, can apply and many will be able to put through a good case for a loan. As stated on TV people will question how businesses that are likely to go under should be allowed the loan, because they'll go under anyway. Some will take it and off into the sunset. I know folk aren't just turning up and getting loans and salaries paid.

As for rents as I mentioned, it was poorly put by me, but I didn't know how to explain it. But the tenants don't think that they should be profiting at such time.   
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Jon MW
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« Reply #842 on: March 27, 2020, 10:03:21 AM »

....I know a small family business (probably 20+ employees) and one of the employees is on a round the world trip of some sort. He's on good terms with the business and the two families are very close. The owner has told me he is going to pay him, even though he has left. I think this will happen quite a lot or of something similar if hey left pretty soon.
...

I assume this would work if they haven't already told HMRC that they've left.

It's pretty generous of the company to pay 20% of his wages after he left, but I'm guessing considering the current situation that extra money might be invaluable.

If it's just fraud for fraud's sake then it's weirdly generous for them to pay 20% of his wages so that he can benefit.

I'm pretty sure a lot of people might try to defraud the system, but I would expect most of them would be trying to make a profit for themselves rather than for their (ex) employees.
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« Reply #843 on: March 27, 2020, 10:08:34 AM »

The BBC was saying last night that the doubling of cases in 5 days was a good sign (it had been doubling every 3 days).  But clearly the number of positives is heavily influenced by the number of tests.
I looked at the UK's number of cases and we tested the a few hundred cases less yesterday than we did 5 days before.   Clearly the number of positives is heavily influenced by the number of tests, and I am not convinced that an increase in the rate of positives from 10% to 20% of all tests is a good news story.

For once, there was some truth in what Donald Trump said.   The USA is clearly performing a lot more tests than some European nations with significantly more deaths.  If the UK only ever does 7,000 tests a day we aren't ever going to find 20,000 positives a day.  Of course the virus is increasing exponentially in the US too, but there is a big caveat on the number of cases in a lot of countries.  

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« Reply #844 on: March 27, 2020, 10:25:12 AM »

....I know a small family business (probably 20+ employees) and one of the employees is on a round the world trip of some sort. He's on good terms with the business and the two families are very close. The owner has told me he is going to pay him, even though he has left. I think this will happen quite a lot or of something similar if hey left pretty soon.
...

I assume this would work if they haven't already told HMRC that they've left.

It's pretty generous of the company to pay 20% of his wages after he left, but I'm guessing considering the current situation that extra money might be invaluable.

If it's just fraud for fraud's sake then it's weirdly generous for them to pay 20% of his wages so that he can benefit.

I'm pretty sure a lot of people might try to defraud the system, but I would expect most of them would be trying to make a profit for themselves rather than for their (ex) employees.

To be clear the Company doesn't have to make up the other 20% if they don't want to, it's entirely optional.

We have to work out the amount they are due based on the 80% then can choose to top it up if we wish.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #845 on: March 27, 2020, 10:28:22 AM »

The BBC was saying last night that the doubling of cases in 5 days was a good sign (it had been doubling every 3 days).  But clearly the number of positives is heavily influenced by the number of tests.
I looked at the UK's number of cases and we tested the a few hundred cases less yesterday than we did 5 days before.   Clearly the number of positives is heavily influenced by the number of tests, and I am not convinced that an increase in the rate of positives from 10% to 20% of all tests is a good news story.

For once, there was some truth in what Donald Trump said.   The USA is clearly performing a lot more tests than some European nations with significantly more deaths.  If the UK only ever does 7,000 tests a day we aren't ever going to find 20,000 positives a day.  Of course the virus is increasing exponentially in the US too, but there is a big caveat on the number of cases in a lot of countries.  


Murta is still doing a good job:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

The most credible reason I’ve heard for the European graphs is that Spain/Italy have many more instances of 3 generations living in the same household, apparently Germany has significantly less than the other large European nations. I did see a table somewhere but can’t find it now.

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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #846 on: March 27, 2020, 10:35:51 AM »

....I know a small family business (probably 20+ employees) and one of the employees is on a round the world trip of some sort. He's on good terms with the business and the two families are very close. The owner has told me he is going to pay him, even though he has left. I think this will happen quite a lot or of something similar if hey left pretty soon.
...

I assume this would work if they haven't already told HMRC that they've left.

It's pretty generous of the company to pay 20% of his wages after he left, but I'm guessing considering the current situation that extra money might be invaluable.

If it's just fraud for fraud's sake then it's weirdly generous for them to pay 20% of his wages so that he can benefit.

I'm pretty sure a lot of people might try to defraud the system, but I would expect most of them would be trying to make a profit for themselves rather than for their (ex) employees.

But are we saying he has left the business on leave for a trip or left the business end of employment?

If he is still being paid whilst on his round the world trip then his employer continuing to pay him using the scheme isn't really even fraud.

Some people don't have to actually work to be employed and receive a salary.....

Just ask Mr Russell  Cheesy
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« Reply #847 on: March 27, 2020, 10:41:08 AM »

....I know a small family business (probably 20+ employees) and one of the employees is on a round the world trip of some sort. He's on good terms with the business and the two families are very close. The owner has told me he is going to pay him, even though he has left. I think this will happen quite a lot or of something similar if hey left pretty soon.
...

I assume this would work if they haven't already told HMRC that they've left.

It's pretty generous of the company to pay 20% of his wages after he left, but I'm guessing considering the current situation that extra money might be invaluable.

If it's just fraud for fraud's sake then it's weirdly generous for them to pay 20% of his wages so that he can benefit.

I'm pretty sure a lot of people might try to defraud the system, but I would expect most of them would be trying to make a profit for themselves rather than for their (ex) employees.

But are we saying he has left the business on leave for a trip or left the business end of employment?

If he is still being paid whilst on his round the world trip then his employer continuing to pay him using the scheme isn't really even fraud.

Some people don't have to actually work to be employed and receive a salary.....

Just ask Mr Russell  Cheesy

He's left the business.
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #848 on: March 27, 2020, 10:42:51 AM »

I take some of it back Aaron.

Apparently you don't even have to provide employee details when claiming.

Just the figure you would like to receive.


What you’ll need to make a claim
Employers should discuss with their staff and make any changes to the employment contract by agreement. Employers may need to seek legal advice on the process. If sufficient numbers of staff are involved, it may be necessary to engage collective consultation processes to procure agreement to changes to terms of employment.

To claim, you will need:

your ePAYE reference number
the number of employees being furloughed
the claim period (start and end date)
amount claimed (per the minimum length of furloughing of 3 weeks)
your bank account number and sort code
your contact name
your phone number
You will need to calculate the amount you are claiming. HMRC will retain the right to retrospectively audit all aspects of your claim.


HMRC can't audit properly currently let alone after all of this.
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #849 on: March 27, 2020, 10:43:22 AM »

....I know a small family business (probably 20+ employees) and one of the employees is on a round the world trip of some sort. He's on good terms with the business and the two families are very close. The owner has told me he is going to pay him, even though he has left. I think this will happen quite a lot or of something similar if hey left pretty soon.
...

I assume this would work if they haven't already told HMRC that they've left.

It's pretty generous of the company to pay 20% of his wages after he left, but I'm guessing considering the current situation that extra money might be invaluable.

If it's just fraud for fraud's sake then it's weirdly generous for them to pay 20% of his wages so that he can benefit.

I'm pretty sure a lot of people might try to defraud the system, but I would expect most of them would be trying to make a profit for themselves rather than for their (ex) employees.

But are we saying he has left the business on leave for a trip or left the business end of employment?

If he is still being paid whilst on his round the world trip then his employer continuing to pay him using the scheme isn't really even fraud.

Some people don't have to actually work to be employed and receive a salary.....

Just ask Mr Russell  Cheesy

He's left the business.

Thanks for that clear clarification.
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« Reply #850 on: March 27, 2020, 10:53:42 AM »

Messrs Evil and Bopkin. Have to say I'm very impressed with the way you are getting on with this and protecting your employees and companies as best you can. Sure this was never part of any continuity planning you might do. I can't quite imagine the underlying stress this must have caused. Really good luck fellas and hope Yr companies go from strength to strength when things are normalised.

Thanks Glen appreciate that.

We're currently figuring out exactly how the furlough process will work for us.

At the moment our three main clients Nottingham Uni, Nottingham Trent Uni and QMC (local hospital) have said that it's essential works only.

As Stu said you're allowed to travel to work if you can't work from home, our work is site based so we can work no problem at all as long as we obey social distancing guidelines.

Because our clients have chosen to stop all works though I've had to furlough everyone because there is literally nothing for them to do.

The problem we have is that once they're furloughed that's it for 3 weeks, we can't get them back. If one of them wants a little job doing we're going to have to say sorry but you'll have to wait 3 weeks until we have an engineer available.

This isn't a major issue unless there's some kind of emergency that they need doing immediately.

Fun day working this one out.....
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« Reply #851 on: March 27, 2020, 11:09:14 AM »

Messrs Evil and Bopkin. Have to say I'm very impressed with the way you are getting on with this and protecting your employees and companies as best you can. Sure this was never part of any continuity planning you might do. I can't quite imagine the underlying stress this must have caused. Really good luck fellas and hope Yr companies go from strength to strength when things are normalised.

Thanks Glen appreciate that.

We're currently figuring out exactly how the furlough process will work for us.

At the moment our three main clients Nottingham Uni, Nottingham Trent Uni and QMC (local hospital) have said that it's essential works only.

As Stu said you're allowed to travel to work if you can't work from home, our work is site based so we can work no problem at all as long as we obey social distancing guidelines.

Because our clients have chosen to stop all works though I've had to furlough everyone because there is literally nothing for them to do.

The problem we have is that once they're furloughed that's it for 3 weeks, we can't get them back. If one of them wants a little job doing we're going to have to say sorry but you'll have to wait 3 weeks until we have an engineer available.

This isn't a major issue unless there's some kind of emergency that they need doing immediately.

Fun day working this one out.....


It might be time for you to dig out your overalls Matt.
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« Reply #852 on: March 27, 2020, 11:26:35 AM »

....I know a small family business (probably 20+ employees) and one of the employees is on a round the world trip of some sort. He's on good terms with the business and the two families are very close. The owner has told me he is going to pay him, even though he has left. I think this will happen quite a lot or of something similar if hey left pretty soon.
...

I assume this would work if they haven't already told HMRC that they've left.

It's pretty generous of the company to pay 20% of his wages after he left, but I'm guessing considering the current situation that extra money might be invaluable.

If it's just fraud for fraud's sake then it's weirdly generous for them to pay 20% of his wages so that he can benefit.

I'm pretty sure a lot of people might try to defraud the system, but I would expect most of them would be trying to make a profit for themselves rather than for their (ex) employees.

To be clear the Company doesn't have to make up the other 20% if they don't want to, it's entirely optional.

We have to work out the amount they are due based on the 80% then can choose to top it up if we wish.


Okay - I thought they had to get paid as normal then the company got the 80% back
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« Reply #853 on: March 27, 2020, 11:33:09 AM »

Just been announced that Boris has it. Fun times.
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« Reply #854 on: March 27, 2020, 11:35:09 AM »

Messrs Evil and Bopkin. Have to say I'm very impressed with the way you are getting on with this and protecting your employees and companies as best you can. Sure this was never part of any continuity planning you might do. I can't quite imagine the underlying stress this must have caused. Really good luck fellas and hope Yr companies go from strength to strength when things are normalised.

Thanks Glen appreciate that.

We're currently figuring out exactly how the furlough process will work for us.

At the moment our three main clients Nottingham Uni, Nottingham Trent Uni and QMC (local hospital) have said that it's essential works only.

As Stu said you're allowed to travel to work if you can't work from home, our work is site based so we can work no problem at all as long as we obey social distancing guidelines.

Because our clients have chosen to stop all works though I've had to furlough everyone because there is literally nothing for them to do.

The problem we have is that once they're furloughed that's it for 3 weeks, we can't get them back. If one of them wants a little job doing we're going to have to say sorry but you'll have to wait 3 weeks until we have an engineer available.

This isn't a major issue unless there's some kind of emergency that they need doing immediately.

Fun day working this one out.....


It might be time for you to dig out your overalls Matt.

In these desperate times that is actually one of my options. I don't have the full skill set anymore but I could certainly help one of the engineers rather than have to keep an engineer on retainer as well as someone to assist them.

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