COVID19

[kukushkin88]

This makes an interesting read.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/04/03/the-hard-choices-covid-policymakers-face?fsrc=newsletter&utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2020-04-02&utm_content=article-link-1

There's been lots of good stuff in The Economist, a bit of a resurgence for The New Scientist as well, loads of good articles really early on in this.

[kukushkin88]

Must be something to some, or all, of it I guess. DMT, Ayahuasca, sensory deprivation, DDP Yoga. Never tried any of them tbf.

Anyway, on to today's 'Questions Unanswered' session.

Q&A Bingo

"Ramping up"
"Surge Capacity"
"Not out of the woods yet"
"Pedal to the floor"
"Green shoots"

4-6 2+, 6-1 3+, 12-1 4+, 25-1 full house

"Ramping up" spread 2.5-2.7

First question comes from: 5-4 Laura Kuenssberg, 3 Peston, 6 Bar.
Number of bookshelves behind question askers spread: 2.1-2.3

Max stake £10. All profits to the NHS.

Just found out Sporting are doing actual prices.

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.1305ccfe-2992-4777-bb4a-880fd174d9d1/boris-daily-briefing-thursday-2nd-april-2020

Looks like they’ve taken all prices down on Coronavirus. 100,000 tests a day by the end of the April must have been well north of a million to one, wouldn’t take much to end up with a huge (albeit safe) liability on that.

[Chompy]

Prices never go up much before 3pm by all accounts.

Yesterday's was actually worth watching. Hancock so credible imo.

Well over an hour and buyers in clover. "Test/tested/testing" made up at well over 150.

[kukushkin88]

Good to see Sturgeon doing the responsible thing and rubbishing Hancock’s claim about the 12th April being the likely U.K. peak.

[Jon MW]

Good to see Sturgeon doing the responsible thing and rubbishing Hancock’s claim about the 12th April being the likely U.K. peak.

Have they ever said that the 12th April is the "likely" peak.

The times I've seen it mentioned they've said that the modelling would put the peak at Easter; and they've said that with the measures in place they'd hope to see the rate of infections followed by the deaths go down - and following on from when the restrictions were put in place and incubation periods, infectivity etc that would make the peak around the 12th if everyone follows the measures.

But I don't think I've heard them say outright that the peak is going to be the 12th April - they've always followed up with this is what we're looking at, if everybody follows the measures and we're going to look at it to see how closely it's tracking to it.

I haven't followed every press relief or briefing though so there's obviously a chance they've made a definitive statement at some point; today - for example - has he outright said "we think the peak will be the 12th April"

[kukushkin88]

Good to see Sturgeon doing the responsible thing and rubbishing Hancock’s claim about the 12th April being the likely U.K. peak.

Have they ever said that the 12th April is the "likely" peak.

The times I've seen it mentioned they've said that the modelling would put the peak at Easter; and they've said that with the measures in place they'd hope to see the rate of infections followed by the deaths go down - and following on from when the restrictions were put in place and incubation periods, infectivity etc that would make the peak around the 12th if everyone follows the measures.

But I don't think I've heard them say outright that the peak is going to be the 12th April - they've always followed up with this is what we're looking at, if everybody follows the measures and we're going to look at it to see how closely it's tracking to it.

I haven't followed every press relief or briefing though so there's obviously a chance they've made a definitive statement at some point; today - for example - has he outright said "we think the peak will be the 12th April"

Just in the last hour. Sky News said “is 12th April the likely peak”, he said “I wouldn’t steer you away from that” Noteworthily lacking in any clarity and whilst we can accept its something that is entirely unknown, he still should be able to do better than that. Sturgeon said moments later, that there was “no evidence” that she had seen “that the peak would be that soon”. Overall I think Hancock has done OK media wise, not so much today.

The messaging on Nightingale is confused as well. It’s 500, not 4000. The key bit of information in terms of it being ‘open’ is surely when it is receiving patients, can’t find any info on this.

Apologies if this comes across as very negative, not really having a good 24 hours in terms of the uncertainty over my treatment. Having a bit of a vent on the forum, like the old days.

[Pokerpops]

Good to see Sturgeon doing the responsible thing and rubbishing Hancock’s claim about the 12th April being the likely U.K. peak.

Have they ever said that the 12th April is the "likely" peak.

The times I've seen it mentioned they've said that the modelling would put the peak at Easter; and they've said that with the measures in place they'd hope to see the rate of infections followed by the deaths go down - and following on from when the restrictions were put in place and incubation periods, infectivity etc that would make the peak around the 12th if everyone follows the measures.

But I don't think I've heard them say outright that the peak is going to be the 12th April - they've always followed up with this is what we're looking at, if everybody follows the measures and we're going to look at it to see how closely it's tracking to it.

I haven't followed every press relief or briefing though so there's obviously a chance they've made a definitive statement at some point; today - for example - has he outright said "we think the peak will be the 12th April"

Just in the last hour. Sky News said “is 12th April the likely peak”, he said “I wouldn’t steer you away from that” Noteworthily lacking in any clarity and whilst we can accept its something that is entirely unknown, he still should be able to do better than that. Sturgeon said moments later, that there was “no evidence” that she had seen “that the peak would be that soon”. Overall I think Hancock has done OK media wise, not so much today.

The messaging on Nightingale is confused as well. It’s 500, not 4000. The key bit of information in terms of it being ‘open’ is surely when it is receiving patients, can’t find any info on this.

Apologies if this comes across as very negative, not really having a good 24 hours in terms of the uncertainty over my treatment. Having a bit of a vent on the forum, like the old days.

500 beds with capacity for another 3500

[Woodsey]

Good to see Sturgeon doing the responsible thing and rubbishing Hancock’s claim about the 12th April being the likely U.K. peak.

Have they ever said that the 12th April is the "likely" peak.

The times I've seen it mentioned they've said that the modelling would put the peak at Easter; and they've said that with the measures in place they'd hope to see the rate of infections followed by the deaths go down - and following on from when the restrictions were put in place and incubation periods, infectivity etc that would make the peak around the 12th if everyone follows the measures.

But I don't think I've heard them say outright that the peak is going to be the 12th April - they've always followed up with this is what we're looking at, if everybody follows the measures and we're going to look at it to see how closely it's tracking to it.

I haven't followed every press relief or briefing though so there's obviously a chance they've made a definitive statement at some point; today - for example - has he outright said "we think the peak will be the 12th April"

Just in the last hour. Sky News said “is 12th April the likely peak”, he said “I wouldn’t steer you away from that” Noteworthily lacking in any clarity and whilst we can accept its something that is entirely unknown, he still should be able to do better than that. Sturgeon said moments later, that there was “no evidence” that she had seen “that the peak would be that soon”. Overall I think Hancock has done OK media wise, not so much today.

The messaging on Nightingale is confused as well. It’s 500, not 4000. The key bit of information in terms of it being ‘open’ is surely when it is receiving patients, can’t find any info on this.

Apologies if this comes across as very negative, not really having a good 24 hours in terms of the uncertainty over my treatment. Having a bit of a vent on the forum, like the old days.

Glass half full again I see 

[kukushkin88]

Good to see Sturgeon doing the responsible thing and rubbishing Hancock’s claim about the 12th April being the likely U.K. peak.

Have they ever said that the 12th April is the "likely" peak.

The times I've seen it mentioned they've said that the modelling would put the peak at Easter; and they've said that with the measures in place they'd hope to see the rate of infections followed by the deaths go down - and following on from when the restrictions were put in place and incubation periods, infectivity etc that would make the peak around the 12th if everyone follows the measures.

But I don't think I've heard them say outright that the peak is going to be the 12th April - they've always followed up with this is what we're looking at, if everybody follows the measures and we're going to look at it to see how closely it's tracking to it.

I haven't followed every press relief or briefing though so there's obviously a chance they've made a definitive statement at some point; today - for example - has he outright said "we think the peak will be the 12th April"

Just in the last hour. Sky News said “is 12th April the likely peak”, he said “I wouldn’t steer you away from that” Noteworthily lacking in any clarity and whilst we can accept its something that is entirely unknown, he still should be able to do better than that. Sturgeon said moments later, that there was “no evidence” that she had seen “that the peak would be that soon”. Overall I think Hancock has done OK media wise, not so much today.

The messaging on Nightingale is confused as well. It’s 500, not 4000. The key bit of information in terms of it being ‘open’ is surely when it is receiving patients, can’t find any info on this.

Apologies if this comes across as very negative, not really having a good 24 hours in terms of the uncertainty over my treatment. Having a bit of a vent on the forum, like the old days.

Glass half full again I see 

😊 My glass/cup runneth over most of the time. The only areas where it’s nearly always empty are when considering the fact that the US and the UK are governed by lying clowns.

[Doobs]

Good to see Sturgeon doing the responsible thing and rubbishing Hancock’s claim about the 12th April being the likely U.K. peak.

Have they ever said that the 12th April is the "likely" peak.

The times I've seen it mentioned they've said that the modelling would put the peak at Easter; and they've said that with the measures in place they'd hope to see the rate of infections followed by the deaths go down - and following on from when the restrictions were put in place and incubation periods, infectivity etc that would make the peak around the 12th if everyone follows the measures.

But I don't think I've heard them say outright that the peak is going to be the 12th April - they've always followed up with this is what we're looking at, if everybody follows the measures and we're going to look at it to see how closely it's tracking to it.

I haven't followed every press relief or briefing though so there's obviously a chance they've made a definitive statement at some point; today - for example - has he outright said "we think the peak will be the 12th April"

Just in the last hour. Sky News said “is 12th April the likely peak”, he said “I wouldn’t steer you away from that” Noteworthily lacking in any clarity and whilst we can accept its something that is entirely unknown, he still should be able to do better than that. Sturgeon said moments later, that there was “no evidence” that she had seen “that the peak would be that soon”. Overall I think Hancock has done OK media wise, not so much today.

The messaging on Nightingale is confused as well. It’s 500, not 4000. The key bit of information in terms of it being ‘open’ is surely when it is receiving patients, can’t find any info on this.

Apologies if this comes across as very negative, not really having a good 24 hours in terms of the uncertainty over my treatment. Having a bit of a vent on the forum, like the old days.

I think Hancock did really well last night; way better than any other Conservative politician that they have put up.   

I don't think the date matters, they really need to be hopeful that they can get on top and make the deaths fall.  If this happens, 12 April feels like as good an approximate date as any.  Maybe he could have done better on particular questions, but he hasn't been nearly as evasive as the others. 

I don't know how you can really be critical of the Nightingale hospital in London, we don't really know how big a part the Conservatives played, but it is very impressive regardless.  They are building others elsewhere too.

Maybe they should keep Boris away even after he gets better?  Hancock's got this.

[Royal Flush]

How many days until they give Rees-Mogg a go?

GIVE THE PEOPLE WHAT THEY WANT!

[kukushkin88]

Good to see Sturgeon doing the responsible thing and rubbishing Hancock’s claim about the 12th April being the likely U.K. peak.

Have they ever said that the 12th April is the "likely" peak.

The times I've seen it mentioned they've said that the modelling would put the peak at Easter; and they've said that with the measures in place they'd hope to see the rate of infections followed by the deaths go down - and following on from when the restrictions were put in place and incubation periods, infectivity etc that would make the peak around the 12th if everyone follows the measures.

But I don't think I've heard them say outright that the peak is going to be the 12th April - they've always followed up with this is what we're looking at, if everybody follows the measures and we're going to look at it to see how closely it's tracking to it.

I haven't followed every press relief or briefing though so there's obviously a chance they've made a definitive statement at some point; today - for example - has he outright said "we think the peak will be the 12th April"

Just in the last hour. Sky News said “is 12th April the likely peak”, he said “I wouldn’t steer you away from that” Noteworthily lacking in any clarity and whilst we can accept its something that is entirely unknown, he still should be able to do better than that. Sturgeon said moments later, that there was “no evidence” that she had seen “that the peak would be that soon”. Overall I think Hancock has done OK media wise, not so much today.

The messaging on Nightingale is confused as well. It’s 500, not 4000. The key bit of information in terms of it being ‘open’ is surely when it is receiving patients, can’t find any info on this.

Apologies if this comes across as very negative, not really having a good 24 hours in terms of the uncertainty over my treatment. Having a bit of a vent on the forum, like the old days.

I think Hancock did really well last night; way better than any other Conservative politician that they have put up.   

I don't think the date matters, they really need to be hopeful that they can get on top and make the deaths fall.  If this happens, 12 April feels like as good an approximate date as any.  Maybe he could have done better on particular questions, but he hasn't been nearly as evasive as the others. 

I don't know how you can really be critical of the Nightingale hospital in London, we don't really know how big a part the Conservatives played, but it is very impressive regardless.  They are building others elsewhere too.

Maybe they should keep Boris away even after he gets better?  Hancock's got this.

I think Hancock has been fine in at the pressers, definitely the best. It does look like someone has told him to be more expressive with his hands arms, it’s so cringeworthy atm but we certainly shouldn’t hold that against him.

The April 12th message is just unwise at this stage imo, because there will be people who will read that as it’s nearly over. I could easily imagine influencing poorer (to an unknown extent) adherence to the lockdown.

The Nighitngale is an amazing achievement and nothing should detract from the credit for those responsible (St Barts/the army)  but we shouldn’t have any political capital being made out of it. Especially not when we remember that Boris spent the election saying “we are building 40 new hospitals”, when the true figure was zero new hospitals.

[Jon MW]

Good to see Sturgeon doing the responsible thing and rubbishing Hancock’s claim about the 12th April being the likely U.K. peak.

Have they ever said that the 12th April is the "likely" peak.

The times I've seen it mentioned they've said that the modelling would put the peak at Easter; and they've said that with the measures in place they'd hope to see the rate of infections followed by the deaths go down - and following on from when the restrictions were put in place and incubation periods, infectivity etc that would make the peak around the 12th if everyone follows the measures.

But I don't think I've heard them say outright that the peak is going to be the 12th April - they've always followed up with this is what we're looking at, if everybody follows the measures and we're going to look at it to see how closely it's tracking to it.

I haven't followed every press relief or briefing though so there's obviously a chance they've made a definitive statement at some point; today - for example - has he outright said "we think the peak will be the 12th April"

Just in the last hour. Sky News said “is 12th April the likely peak”, he said “I wouldn’t steer you away from that” Noteworthily lacking in any clarity and whilst we can accept its something that is entirely unknown, he still should be able to do better than that. Sturgeon said moments later, that there was “no evidence” that she had seen “that the peak would be that soon”. Overall I think Hancock has done OK media wise, not so much today.

The messaging on Nightingale is confused as well. It’s 500, not 4000. The key bit of information in terms of it being ‘open’ is surely when it is receiving patients, can’t find any info on this.

Apologies if this comes across as very negative, not really having a good 24 hours in terms of the uncertainty over my treatment. Having a bit of a vent on the forum, like the old days.

I think Hancock did really well last night; way better than any other Conservative politician that they have put up.   

I don't think the date matters, they really need to be hopeful that they can get on top and make the deaths fall.  If this happens, 12 April feels like as good an approximate date as any.  Maybe he could have done better on particular questions, but he hasn't been nearly as evasive as the others. 

I don't know how you can really be critical of the Nightingale hospital in London, we don't really know how big a part the Conservatives played, but it is very impressive regardless.  They are building others elsewhere too.

Maybe they should keep Boris away even after he gets better?  Hancock's got this.

I think Hancock has been fine in at the pressers, definitely the best. It does look like someone has told him to be more expressive with his hands arms, it’s so cringeworthy atm but we certainly shouldn’t hold that against him.

The April 12th message is just unwise at this stage imo, because there will be people who will read that as it’s nearly over. I could easily imagine influencing poorer (to an unknown extent) adherence to the lockdown.
...

His response was

"I defer to the scientists on the exact predictions, I'm not going to steer you away from that. That is one perfectly possible outcome."

To me that sounds like quite a long way away from a definitive statement.

If the message that it's if people stick to the measures and that it's an estimate isn't being portrayed to the general public I would have thought that's more of a failure of journalism than of political statement.

[Marky147]

That isn't a mischievous enough way to portray it though.

[kukushkin88]

That isn't a mischievous enough way to portray it though.

My intent definitely isn’t mischief. Must be 30 years since I was accused of mischief 😊. I’m thinking more along these lines:

https://twitter.com/holliepoetry/status/1245839139054014465?s=21

and these:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=s6_MfQ9FloE