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COVID19
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Author
Topic: COVID19 (Read 359190 times)
kukushkin88
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Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1845 on:
April 29, 2020, 04:04:42 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 03:55:47 PM
Quote from: RickBFA on April 29, 2020, 03:43:20 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 10:02:15 AM
Quote from: Jon MW on April 29, 2020, 09:52:53 AM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 09:26:35 AM
Quote from: Pokerpops on April 29, 2020, 09:06:07 AM
...
Kush, Just out of interest and it’s a question asked in a friendly spirit. Do you consider that you have a bias? If so what do you think it is?
I think I’ve answered this question a ton of times. I think austerity, Brexit and the handling of this crisis are catastrophic failures of government. I am biased toward anything that would lead to a more equitable society. Ideologically, a really moderate form of socialism is what I think would be best for the U.K., with similar levels of public investment to, for example, Germany.
In spite of this bias, probably in part due to a strong background in scientific fields, I am able to be quite objective when I need to be. Reread the thread if we want to get a feel for who was ahead of the curve at any time in terms of how this was likely to play out.
Kush - you know a bias is a prejudice right?
So if you're saying your bias is based on "I think austerity, Brexit and the handling of this crisis are catastrophic failures of government" you're saying that you don't think that's an objective opinion(?)
"I am biased toward anything that would lead to a more equitable society. Ideologically, a really moderate form of socialism is what I think would be best for the U.K., with similar levels of public investment to, for example, Germany. "
Is closer - a more realistic description might be you're biased against anything you think doesn't lead to a more equitable society - primarily anything the Tories do :p
I guess I was simplifying the language for the purpose of responding to PP. You’re quite right to correct me. I don’t believe there is any bias in my belief that the governance of this country has been getting progressively worse since around 2012. Same for my view that having a populist government, led a by a clown who believes in English exceptionalism, was unfortunate timing for this crisis.
I’m not the biggest fan of Boris but calling him “a clown” demonstrates your bias even though you don’t believe it’s a biased view.
You’ve bought the act, hook line and sinker. He plays up to that image and ensures he is underestimated by opponents.
My view is a bit more complicated than that, I haven’t bought his act at all. I usually call him ‘the clown show’, this was just the abbreviated version. Calling him a clown is just being a bit charitable, he should be and usually is, called a lot worse.
My feelings about Boris are objective, my choice of words sometimes leave room for improvement. An incompetent liar who believes in little Englander exceptionalism would be a more accurate and therefore better way to describe him. Let’s not make it about what I think of Boris though. As I say, whatever you think of biases I might have, my judgement on this issue has been sound, the last 6 weeks of the thread are an interesting reread.
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kukushkin88
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Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1846 on:
April 29, 2020, 04:06:47 PM »
Quote from: Marky147 on April 29, 2020, 04:00:20 PM
Quote from: Chompy on April 29, 2020, 02:46:02 PM
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-antibody-test-approval-news-europe-uk-accuracy-abbot-a9490026.html
Load up, load up.
This would be great news! 😊 Has to be cautious optimism at this stage though.
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Jon MW
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Posts: 6191
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1847 on:
April 29, 2020, 05:17:54 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 04:04:42 PM
.... As I say, whatever you think of biases I might have, my judgement on this issue has been sound, the last 6 weeks of the thread are an interesting reread.
Click to see full-size image.
Logged
Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield
2011 blonde MTT League August Champion
2011 UK Team Championships: Black Belt Poker Team Captain - - runners up - -
5 Star HORSE Classic - 2007 Razz Champion
2007 WSOP Razz - 13/341
Woodsey
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 15846
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1848 on:
April 29, 2020, 05:21:16 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 04:04:42 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 03:55:47 PM
Quote from: RickBFA on April 29, 2020, 03:43:20 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 10:02:15 AM
Quote from: Jon MW on April 29, 2020, 09:52:53 AM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 09:26:35 AM
Quote from: Pokerpops on April 29, 2020, 09:06:07 AM
...
Kush, Just out of interest and it’s a question asked in a friendly spirit. Do you consider that you have a bias? If so what do you think it is?
I think I’ve answered this question a ton of times. I think austerity, Brexit and the handling of this crisis are catastrophic failures of government. I am biased toward anything that would lead to a more equitable society. Ideologically, a really moderate form of socialism is what I think would be best for the U.K., with similar levels of public investment to, for example, Germany.
In spite of this bias, probably in part due to a strong background in scientific fields, I am able to be quite objective when I need to be. Reread the thread if we want to get a feel for who was ahead of the curve at any time in terms of how this was likely to play out.
Kush - you know a bias is a prejudice right?
So if you're saying your bias is based on "I think austerity, Brexit and the handling of this crisis are catastrophic failures of government" you're saying that you don't think that's an objective opinion(?)
"I am biased toward anything that would lead to a more equitable society. Ideologically, a really moderate form of socialism is what I think would be best for the U.K., with similar levels of public investment to, for example, Germany. "
Is closer - a more realistic description might be you're biased against anything you think doesn't lead to a more equitable society - primarily anything the Tories do :p
I guess I was simplifying the language for the purpose of responding to PP. You’re quite right to correct me. I don’t believe there is any bias in my belief that the governance of this country has been getting progressively worse since around 2012. Same for my view that having a populist government, led a by a clown who believes in English exceptionalism, was unfortunate timing for this crisis.
I’m not the biggest fan of Boris but calling him “a clown” demonstrates your bias even though you don’t believe it’s a biased view.
You’ve bought the act, hook line and sinker. He plays up to that image and ensures he is underestimated by opponents.
My view is a bit more complicated than that, I haven’t bought his act at all. I usually call him ‘the clown show’, this was just the abbreviated version. Calling him a clown is just being a bit charitable, he should be and usually is, called a lot worse.
My feelings about Boris are objective, my choice of words sometimes leave room for improvement. An incompetent liar who believes in little Englander exceptionalism would be a more accurate and therefore better way to describe him. Let’s not make it about what I think of Boris though. As I say, whatever you think of biases I might have, my judgement on this issue has been sound, the last 6 weeks of the thread are an interesting reread.
Your judgment has been sound has it? Can you state what medical credentials you have that make you qualified to have ‘a sound judgement’ on this matter?
«
Last Edit: April 29, 2020, 05:24:13 PM by Woodsey
»
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nirvana
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Posts: 7804
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1849 on:
April 29, 2020, 05:45:54 PM »
Judgement is an interesting word to use - not necessarily the wrong word but quite an odd choice. I judged x writer to be more right than y writer is a kind of judgement I suppose.
But since there is no right or wrong in this, only decisions and outcomes, judgement has a peculiar ring to it.
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sola virtus nobilitat
Marky147
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Posts: 22797
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1850 on:
April 29, 2020, 06:34:01 PM »
I always think my judgement is good... Then I crash my mobility scooter driving back to the Cosmo, end up breaking my glasses, and need help picking the scooter up off the deck
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Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Jon MW
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Posts: 6191
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1851 on:
April 29, 2020, 06:37:21 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 04:04:42 PM
.... As I say, whatever you think of biases I might have, my judgement on this issue has been sound, the last 6 weeks of the thread are an interesting reread.
Also, I can't be bothered to search too much but just taking a recent statement.
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 27, 2020, 08:09:58 AM
...
If we (England) don’t think we are missing people who died directly of Covid, we must have a theory as to how we are better than other comparable countries ...Countries suitable for comparison on this Scotland/Ireland/France, also New York State.
...
Even if we ignore whether the statement itself is right or wrong:
England (population 56 m)
Scotland (population 5 m)
Ireland (population 5 m)
New York state (population 20 m - well it's closer)
France (population 67m - ok that's a good one)
There are other factors obviously but are you really saying that this group of regions are all "suitable for comparison"?
Is that the sound judgement you mean?
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield
2011 blonde MTT League August Champion
2011 UK Team Championships: Black Belt Poker Team Captain - - runners up - -
5 Star HORSE Classic - 2007 Razz Champion
2007 WSOP Razz - 13/341
kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1852 on:
April 29, 2020, 06:42:02 PM »
Quote from: Jon MW on April 29, 2020, 05:17:54 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 04:04:42 PM
.... As I say, whatever you think of biases I might have, my judgement on this issue has been sound, the last 6 weeks of the thread are an interesting reread.
Click to see full-size image.
t
Good meme 😊. I was trying to address only the (fairly) narrow suggestion that my judgement has been compromised by my being biased. The comment that it is interesting rereading the thread can stand alone. The issue that was discussed over ‘evidence’ for school closures might finally be seeing some progress.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30287-5/fulltext
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kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1853 on:
April 29, 2020, 06:47:38 PM »
Quote from: Jon MW on April 29, 2020, 06:37:21 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 04:04:42 PM
.... As I say, whatever you think of biases I might have, my judgement on this issue has been sound, the last 6 weeks of the thread are an interesting reread.
Also, I can't be bothered to search too much but just taking a recent statement.
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 27, 2020, 08:09:58 AM
...
If we (England) don’t think we are missing people who died directly of Covid, we must have a theory as to how we are better than other comparable countries ...Countries suitable for comparison on this Scotland/Ireland/France, also New York State.
...
Even if we ignore whether the statement itself is right or wrong:
England (population 56 m)
Scotland (population 5 m)
Ireland (population 5 m)
New York state (population 20 m - well it's closer)
France (population 67m - ok that's a good one)
There are other factors obviously but are you really saying that this group of regions are all "suitable for comparison"?
Is that the sound judgement you mean?
Given that we were talking about care home deaths as a percentage of all deaths, I’m not sure why the differing population sizes is a huge deal. There are no perfect comparisons in this but England, at the time, was reporting a tiny proportion of care home deaths relative to all of those countries.
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Jon MW
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Posts: 6191
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1854 on:
April 29, 2020, 07:07:08 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 06:42:02 PM
...
The comment that it is interesting rereading the thread can stand alone. The issue that was discussed over ‘evidence’ for school closures might finally be seeing some progress.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30287-5/fulltext
Do you mean this, "...Moreover, children are at a similar risk of infection to the general population, although less likely to have severe symptoms; hence they should be considered in analyses of transmission and control..."?
which is in that study published 27th April 2020
As compared to the evidence in the Imperial report that informed the governments strategy which instead said, "....We predict that school and university closure will have an impact on the epidemic, under the assumption that children do transmit as much as adults, even if they rarely experience severe disease..." which was published on the 16th March 2020.
I'm not quite sure what the point you're making is(?)
Logged
Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield
2011 blonde MTT League August Champion
2011 UK Team Championships: Black Belt Poker Team Captain - - runners up - -
5 Star HORSE Classic - 2007 Razz Champion
2007 WSOP Razz - 13/341
kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1855 on:
April 29, 2020, 07:17:08 PM »
Quote from: Jon MW on April 29, 2020, 07:07:08 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 06:42:02 PM
...
The comment that it is interesting rereading the thread can stand alone. The issue that was discussed over ‘evidence’ for school closures might finally be seeing some progress.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30287-5/fulltext
Do you mean this, "...Moreover, children are at a similar risk of infection to the general population, although less likely to have severe symptoms; hence they should be considered in analyses of transmission and control..."?
which is in that study published 27th April 2020
As compared to the evidence in the Imperial report that informed the governments strategy which instead said, "....We predict that school and university closure will have an impact on the epidemic, under the assumption that children do transmit as much as adults, even if they rarely experience severe disease..." which was published on the 16th March 2020.
I'm not quite sure what the point you're making is(?)
When the decision was made to leave schools open, they said that decision was based on “scientific evidence”, they didn’t have any Covid19 based evidence, prepping for the wrong disease is a bit of a theme. Yet we decided to pursue the high risk option.
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Chompy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 11852
Expert
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1856 on:
April 29, 2020, 07:18:09 PM »
Quote from: Marky147 on April 29, 2020, 06:34:01 PM
I always think my judgement is good... Then I crash my mobility scooter driving back to the Cosmo, end up breaking my glasses, and need help picking the scooter up off the deck
Anyone seen lolrron? It's been a while.
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
Jon MW
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 6191
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1857 on:
April 29, 2020, 07:22:17 PM »
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 07:17:08 PM
Quote from: Jon MW on April 29, 2020, 07:07:08 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 06:42:02 PM
...
The comment that it is interesting rereading the thread can stand alone. The issue that was discussed over ‘evidence’ for school closures might finally be seeing some progress.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30287-5/fulltext
Do you mean this, "...Moreover, children are at a similar risk of infection to the general population, although less likely to have severe symptoms; hence they should be considered in analyses of transmission and control..."?
which is in that study published 27th April 2020
As compared to the evidence in the Imperial report that informed the governments strategy which instead said, "....We predict that school and university closure will have an impact on the epidemic, under the assumption that children do transmit as much as adults, even if they rarely experience severe disease..." which was published on the 16th March 2020.
I'm not quite sure what the point you're making is(?)
When the decision was made to leave schools open, they said that decision was based on “scientific evidence”, they didn’t have any Covid19 based evidence, prepping for the wrong disease is a bit of a theme. Yet we decided to pursue the high risk option.
But I just mentioned the evidence they used. As for the wrong disease, the first model was based on flu studies, but in flu pandemics children have a higher rate, not the same rate - so it does seem like the experts might have taken into account that this wasn't flu.
That might be a surprise to you, but they are experts for a reason. Or have you had enough of so called experts in this pandemic?
Logged
Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield
2011 blonde MTT League August Champion
2011 UK Team Championships: Black Belt Poker Team Captain - - runners up - -
5 Star HORSE Classic - 2007 Razz Champion
2007 WSOP Razz - 13/341
kukushkin88
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 3892
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1858 on:
April 29, 2020, 07:33:15 PM »
Quote from: Jon MW on April 29, 2020, 07:22:17 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 07:17:08 PM
Quote from: Jon MW on April 29, 2020, 07:07:08 PM
Quote from: kukushkin88 on April 29, 2020, 06:42:02 PM
...
The comment that it is interesting rereading the thread can stand alone. The issue that was discussed over ‘evidence’ for school closures might finally be seeing some progress.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30287-5/fulltext
Do you mean this, "...Moreover, children are at a similar risk of infection to the general population, although less likely to have severe symptoms; hence they should be considered in analyses of transmission and control..."?
which is in that study published 27th April 2020
As compared to the evidence in the Imperial report that informed the governments strategy which instead said, "....We predict that school and university closure will have an impact on the epidemic, under the assumption that children do transmit as much as adults, even if they rarely experience severe disease..." which was published on the 16th March 2020.
I'm not quite sure what the point you're making is(?)
When the decision was made to leave schools open, they said that decision was based on “scientific evidence”, they didn’t have any Covid19 based evidence, prepping for the wrong disease is a bit of a theme. Yet we decided to pursue the high risk option.
But I just mentioned the evidence they used. As for the wrong disease, the first model was based on flu studies, but in flu pandemics children have a higher rate, not the same rate - so it does seem like the experts might have taken into account that this wasn't flu.
That might be a surprise to you, but they are experts for a reason. Or have you had enough of so called experts in this pandemic?
Just to check you’re saying they know or even knew a month ago the role of school children in spreading Covid19? You’re also saying that they know how it compares to flu on that front?
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nirvana
Hero Member
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Posts: 7804
Re: COVID19
«
Reply #1859 on:
April 29, 2020, 07:50:18 PM »
Anyway, Kuku it's not about judgement, we were talking about bias. There are so many known unknowns in this whole thing that our biases (and other aspects of our characters) inform the view we take on Government performance during this crisis.
So, we could both make a judgement that if we'd locked down sooner it is probable that fewer people would have died to date. Our judgement would be the same but our perspectives on whether locking down sooner could reasonably have been expected or would have been desirable would probably be different.
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sola virtus nobilitat
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