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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353709 times)
nirvana
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« Reply #2025 on: May 06, 2020, 07:04:59 PM »

Sorry to hear about your Gran,  Arbboy, today we just buried my Gran (98) although she wasn't killed by covid it did have an affect as the care home she was in did have covid so my dad was not able to visit as he is on the at risk list.

Your write up was great it, they were a completely different generation having gone through what they did with WW2 and it definitely did define their generation, which i have a feeling Covid will for my kids.

Sorry to hear your bad news.  98 is a fantastic age.   Glad you all enjoyed my write up about gran.   Helped me come to terms with the great retirement she had even though they had a tougher time during their younger years.  Wasn't written with that in mind but if some blondes enjoying reading my thoughts that's great. 

Just arranged the funeral today and been told that Church of Scotland (who the minister is who will do the service) have banned the singing of Hymns during the service because of an increased risk of virus harm!  Personally think the banning of singing improves most of these occasions as the singing is usually terrible.

Haha, every cloud....
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TightEnd
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« Reply #2026 on: May 07, 2020, 09:00:55 AM »

Yes, it's Alistair Campbell who is not everyone's cup of team. However, he makes some good points here about strategy/communications

its 15k words long too but a very good read

https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2020/05/06/alastair-campbell-we-are-witnessing-a-national-catastrophe/content.html?fbclid=IwAR1Y2r5EAcBzb6puTDHAP6exQHQWL7teAxX_1WdI3Pole6Y5iQ_1X7tZAhE
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hector62
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« Reply #2027 on: May 07, 2020, 10:33:45 AM »

Thanks Tighty that is a really interesting article.
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Rubbish2407
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« Reply #2028 on: May 07, 2020, 10:42:39 AM »

Sorry to hear about you Gran Arb, tough times.
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Pokerpops
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« Reply #2029 on: May 07, 2020, 04:20:00 PM »

Yes, it's Alistair Campbell who is not everyone's cup of team. However, he makes some good points here about strategy/communications

its 15k words long too but a very good read

https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2020/05/06/alastair-campbell-we-are-witnessing-a-national-catastrophe/content.html?fbclid=IwAR1Y2r5EAcBzb6puTDHAP6exQHQWL7teAxX_1WdI3Pole6Y5iQ_1X7tZAhE

For the record, I agree with most people that the standard of questioning at the Daily Pressers is pretty abysmal. I also have some admiration for Campbell in his fight against his own personal demons.

But

It’s Alastair Campbell, a man very well experienced in burying bad news during his time as Tony’s press man. It’s rather hypocritical of the man who sexed up the Iraq WND dossier to make observations here.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/jan/10/alastair-campbell-iraq-dossier-inquiry
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"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
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« Reply #2030 on: May 08, 2020, 05:17:12 PM »

there were 626 deaths yesterday. We’ve been in 600+ deaths for many days on a very shallow decline from the pesk

One of the government’s five tests for ADJUSTING (not lifting) the lockdown is a “sustained and consistent fall in daily deaths”.

It feels mad that the PM is even adjusting lockdown on Sunday no?

It is noticeably busy around my village today. Those midweek happy Monday tabloid headlines also seemed nuts to me.
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arbboy
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« Reply #2031 on: May 08, 2020, 05:32:02 PM »

there were 626 deaths yesterday. We’ve been in 600+ deaths for many days on a very shallow decline from the pesk

One of the government’s five tests for ADJUSTING (not lifting) the lockdown is a “sustained and consistent fall in daily deaths”.

It feels mad that the PM is even adjusting lockdown on Sunday no?

It is noticeably busy around my village today. Those midweek happy Monday tabloid headlines also seemed nuts to me.

I totally agree Tighty.  The numbers (albeit past the peak on a 7 day rolling average basis) are still huge.   People are talking like we are past the peak and we are back to 100 odd deaths a day now not still in the 600 range.   It really isn't down much at all from the absolute peak at all. 
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bookiebasher
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« Reply #2032 on: May 08, 2020, 05:35:11 PM »

there were 626 deaths yesterday. We’ve been in 600+ deaths for many days on a very shallow decline from the pesk

One of the government’s five tests for ADJUSTING (not lifting) the lockdown is a “sustained and consistent fall in daily deaths”.

It feels mad that the PM is even adjusting lockdown on Sunday no?

It is noticeably busy around my village today. Those midweek happy Monday tabloid headlines also seemed nuts to me.

Agree. The decline in the curve is stubbornly slower than the incline and adjusting lockdown in any shape or form at this
stage will further hinder efforts to get numbers down quicker and may well flatten out .

Why cant we wait 3-4 weeks to see how other countries results are who have started relaxing measures.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #2033 on: May 08, 2020, 05:37:55 PM »

The answer to that is in the economy, the pressure they are under to get things going. There is obviously a trade off calculation to make, given the cost in unemployment, furlough ( mental health from isolation too etc) but it's weeks too early from this layman's view
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arbboy
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« Reply #2034 on: May 08, 2020, 05:43:35 PM »

The answer to that is in the economy, the pressure they are under to get things going. There is obviously a trade off calculation to make, given the cost in unemployment, furlough ( mental health from isolation too etc) but it's weeks too early from this layman's view

Also funny how we had 122k tests on the day that mattered somehow but since all below 100k.   Variance occurs in government just as much as poker clearly.  They must have run good by chance on the key day. 
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arbboy
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« Reply #2035 on: May 08, 2020, 05:46:46 PM »

there were 626 deaths yesterday. We’ve been in 600+ deaths for many days on a very shallow decline from the pesk

One of the government’s five tests for ADJUSTING (not lifting) the lockdown is a “sustained and consistent fall in daily deaths”.

It feels mad that the PM is even adjusting lockdown on Sunday no?

It is noticeably busy around my village today. Those midweek happy Monday tabloid headlines also seemed nuts to me.

Agree. The decline in the curve is stubbornly slower than the incline and adjusting lockdown in any shape or form at this
stage will further hinder efforts to get numbers down quicker and may well flatten out .

Why cant we wait 3-4 weeks to see how other countries results are who have started relaxing measures.

The trouble is the reality is nothing rules/regs wise has changed but the daily mail and other publications have spun a web of lies in their pages making it sound like its all over and probably causing chaos for the Police this weekend given VE day and/or the weather forecast.  Someone my mother knows in the Leicester police force said they are all on standby today and working longer hours because of the mixed messages that have been sent out this week mainly by the gutter press.
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bookiebasher
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« Reply #2036 on: May 08, 2020, 06:01:47 PM »

If the number of deaths flatten out to 300 plus a day and the R number stays around 0.7-0.9  is that
not just going to delay the economy recovering even further.

As Winston Churchill said "If your going through hell , keep going "

https://phys.org/news/2020-04-stronger-pandemic-response-yields-economic.html
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TightEnd
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« Reply #2037 on: May 08, 2020, 06:01:51 PM »

People promising a quick economic bounce back can’t possibly be taking into account changes in consumer behaviour.

I have no idea when I will regularly dine out again. Sport feels so frivolous right now. Housing sales and buys have slowed to a crawl. Air travel for many is out.

Not to mention the huge shortfall in tax revenues that will eliminate a lot of government jobs.

no plan no management that we are aware of yet for this enormous wave of change, not even acknowledging it. people promising a quick bounceback are just ignoring reality
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bookiebasher
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« Reply #2038 on: May 08, 2020, 06:14:30 PM »

Not a cat in hell's chance of a fast economic recovery.

Slow and painful maybe.

Until a vaccine is found and mass produced or decent therapeutics available then the world as we knew
before has long gone.

As an aside , Dusk Till Dawn must be in danger of closing down ?

Very difficult to observe any protocols with how poker is played sharing chips cards etc.
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arbboy
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« Reply #2039 on: May 08, 2020, 06:20:51 PM »

People promising a quick economic bounce back can’t possibly be taking into account changes in consumer behaviour.

I have no idea when I will regularly dine out again. Sport feels so frivolous right now. Housing sales and buys have slowed to a crawl. Air travel for many is out.

Not to mention the huge shortfall in tax revenues that will eliminate a lot of government jobs.

no plan no management that we are aware of yet for this enormous wave of change, not even acknowledging it. people promising a quick bounceback are just ignoring reality

I don't think people/government and the markets realise this is like the end of ww2 in terms of future patterns/habits and behaviour.   So many things that used to happen won't happen anymore.   Patterns of behaviour will change massively imo across so many sectors.  I think pubs will be finished outside of the high volume spoons model.  People have been forced to drink at home and realise how much they save drinking at home.   Working from home will destroy the hotel/airline/car owning/exhibition industries hand over fist.  So many industries that should have died years ago will die now because risk averse(i hate change) types have been forced to see you can do business in a different/cheaper way in the modern world.  If you don't change you won't be able to compete on price with your rivals who have changed.  So you will have to change or die.
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