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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353790 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #3675 on: January 19, 2021, 03:40:01 PM »

Might just be a massive Stone Roses fan Grin

https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1351493332564848640

Looks good, too.
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« Reply #3676 on: January 19, 2021, 09:35:10 PM »


ITV4, "The Virus That Shook the World" is a fascinating watch.

It is 90 minutes long & began at 9pm, but it's available on ITV+1 at 10pm.

Well worth viewing.

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« Reply #3677 on: January 20, 2021, 12:15:14 AM »

Had my first dose of the pfizer vaccine today, second one scheduled for 10 weeks time
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Jon MW
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« Reply #3678 on: January 20, 2021, 07:56:51 AM »

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/thousands-of-israelis-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-after-first-vaccine-shot-1.9462478

Thousands of Israelis have tested positive for Covid after Pfizer vaccine.  I am not sure what this means, as false positives should not happen with a mRNA vaccine.   There are no details of whether they are sick or not, and it may just be a lot of Covid in the community at vaccine time and it takes a couple of weeks for immunity.
..

That link doesn't work (anymore, I assume) - I saw a Times of Israel article from previously talking about people getting sick after the Pfizer shot. That was emphasising that the vaccine doesn't start working for 8-10 days, I also recently saw some anecdotal criticism of "soaring" COVID infections in Israel so (unless that article had extra information) it seems to be primarily about the high number of infections (and high population density) in Israel.
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« Reply #3679 on: January 20, 2021, 08:24:23 AM »

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/thousands-of-israelis-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-after-first-vaccine-shot-1.9462478

Thousands of Israelis have tested positive for Covid after Pfizer vaccine.  I am not sure what this means, as false positives should not happen with a mRNA vaccine.   There are no details of whether they are sick or not, and it may just be a lot of Covid in the community at vaccine time and it takes a couple of weeks for immunity.
..

That link doesn't work (anymore, I assume) - I saw a Times of Israel article from previously talking about people getting sick after the Pfizer shot. That was emphasising that the vaccine doesn't start working for 8-10 days, I also recently saw some anecdotal criticism of "soaring" COVID infections in Israel so (unless that article had extra information) it seems to be primarily about the high number of infections (and high population density) in Israel.

You can google it using the title.  Just the link doesn't work when you use it for some reason that I don't understand.   There is a limit to 2 articles a month.

 It does show rates in each period and falling rates, so probably nothing to worry about as I said.

Infection rates are very high in Israel.
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« Reply #3680 on: January 20, 2021, 10:42:19 AM »

I shouldn't laugh, but...

https://mobile.twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1351594806275952641

Earlier today, I said that Sarah Knapton was Britain’s worst health reporter. That was a mistake and I’d like to apologise. She is actually a science journalist.


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Marky147
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« Reply #3681 on: January 20, 2021, 02:24:20 PM »


ITV4, "The Virus That Shook the World" is a fascinating watch.

It is 90 minutes long & began at 9pm, but it's available on ITV+1 at 10pm.

Well worth viewing.

Try and grab that on catch-up, cheers.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3682 on: January 20, 2021, 02:25:24 PM »

Had my first dose of the pfizer vaccine today, second one scheduled for 10 weeks time


Nice one   thumbs up

Hopefully I'll hear sometime this month.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3683 on: January 20, 2021, 02:36:25 PM »

I shouldn't laugh, but...

https://mobile.twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1351594806275952641

Earlier today, I said that Sarah Knapton was Britain’s worst health reporter. That was a mistake and I’d like to apologise. She is actually a science journalist.

Well done, Sarah  Roll Eyes
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Marky147
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« Reply #3684 on: January 20, 2021, 02:39:21 PM »

Mate of mine sent me this, and said to watch from 23m.



The first minute told me what I guessed was coming, but I was confused how they managed to use what appearted to be the same chart as this one below to show last year was basically 'a setback'

 Click to see full-size image.


Cliffs - No Pandemic


https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1348708708637945857

That's the thread I posted pic from.
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« Reply #3685 on: January 20, 2021, 03:52:36 PM »

I shouldn't laugh, but...

https://mobile.twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1351594806275952641

Earlier today, I said that Sarah Knapton was Britain’s worst health reporter. That was a mistake and I’d like to apologise. She is actually a science journalist.

Well done, Sarah  Roll Eyes

To get away from the ad hominem attacks. The article is behind a paywall, but Peter Hitchens has helpfully put up some bits that he thinks support him...

"It is not the tens of thousands... some 60,800 of those [excess deaths] occured in the first wave, just 12,100 in the second". 

Of course this was based on the outdated numbers at year end, and the CMI weekly mortality monitor was revised yesterday after the ONS update.   

CMI calculates 80,100 excess deaths to 8 January, of which 19,400 are in the second wave.
- there were 17% more deaths than expected over the last two weeks.

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1351566236996554754

There are currently tens of thousands of Covid deaths, and there will be tens of thousands of excess deaths in the second wave.  These are facts and not really a subject for argument. The reason not all covid deaths in wave 2 are nt counting in excess deaths is probably because tens of thousands of vulnerable people were killed in wave 1.  Kind of the exact opposite of the dry tinder theory that these people talk about.

and here we are

https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1351540344807161856

"The population has grown blah blah...  This would have led to excess deaths in England and Wales rising by 1.5%."

This was very likely to be incorrect: There has been a near balance over the last 5 years or so between mortality improvements because of improvements in medicine and population growth.  Mortality was monitored before Covid, and in the first few months of the year mortality rates were actually down on nearly all previous years, and in line with 2019.  You can see the trend up until 1 April here

 Click to see full-size image.


"Some commentators have also commented that 2019 had lower levels of death than normal...so we entered 2020 with a more vulnerable population than normal". 

This is the so called "dry tinder" theory beloved by Ivor Cummins and his ilk.  Unfortunately it is shown to be dubious at best

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200811303055364

If you look at John Burns Murdoch's tweet, you will notice that the two big years for flu were 2017/18 and 2018/19.  The 2019/20 flu season wasn't massively out of line with the past.  So in theory there would be less people susceptible to flu in 2020, and not more, but of course the theory was just a theory and should be thrown in the bin long ago.

Finally we get to this one

https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1351540787616624643

Which is using out of date data, and the last few weeks just show what reporting delays in deaths look like at the end of the year.  Needless to say she reported a tailing off of mortality at the end of the year... as did many before her

Here is what happened to reported deaths after the end of the year. 

 Click to see full-size image.


I could critique the argument between Chris Snowden as her, but time is short.  When people are talking about excess deaths, they are talking about excess deaths above normal excess deaths in winter, and not just excess deaths in winter.  I can't recall a year where excess deaths haven't happned in winter, and there is nothing unusual about seeing them.  These Covid extra deaths are unusual and nothing like them has been seen in a very long time. It seems unclear that she understands the difference.

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« Reply #3686 on: January 20, 2021, 08:19:45 PM »

As it is a Wednesday, just a quick update.

I think we can ignore today's big number of deaths as it always high on a Tuesday or Wednesday.  Deaths by date of death surpassed the wave 1 peak on 12 January and are only likely to be revised up from there.  Again, that isn't that accurate either, as testing was lower in wave 1, so they are only higher on the official definition.  In reality, we are probably a bit below wave 1 peak still.  1,100 UK Covid deaths in a day (1,000 for England alone) is still pretty shocking as I was hopeful we could keep it below 500 when we went into that mini lockdown in November.

Cases are much brighter; cases per day are now consistently lower than the ones 7 day previously (the last exception was the 8 January and that was compared to New Year's Day).

Hospital Admissions appear to have turned down, but at worst they are level.  There is still a lot of daily fluctuation, but there should be a clear downward trend by next week.

Vaccinations went above 300k yesterday, which I think was the target.  If they go on like that, the deaths are going to start falling soon enough.  Deaths must be close to their peak anyway right now, given the effect of lockdown on cases and admissions.

Finally, I read the BBC saying there was no evidence of a Christmas increase in cases.  I think there was a small blip that is hard to see as the cases were volatile because of the bank holiday.  It is pretty clear the cases were still increasing into the New Year and started falling soon after lockdown.   I think most people were restrained at Christmas and they probably did the right thing.

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« Reply #3687 on: January 21, 2021, 02:55:44 PM »

I have to tell my mum the same every week when she sees the Sunday numbers, as the midweek ones always catch up.

Saw yesterday they have set up a jabbing centre in my town, so hopefully won't be too long until I get stabbed up.
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« Reply #3688 on: January 21, 2021, 04:44:20 PM »

Does someone know a good place to get ffp2 or ffp3 masks in the UK. Maybe a pack of 3 or 5? I try to avoid Amazon if I can. Would like to order some for my mum.
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« Reply #3689 on: January 21, 2021, 04:49:53 PM »

I dont have any FFP2 masks but I do have a few Type IIR Surgical masks.

Can send her a box of 50 FOC if you like bergeroo

Got to get rid of them somehow!
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