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Marky147
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« Reply #3855 on: February 20, 2021, 01:28:48 AM »

I try not to, but...




However, fairplay to these chaps, who are putting their time into trying to stop the grift.

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« Reply #3856 on: February 21, 2021, 09:32:00 AM »

What is the logic to a gradual re-opening, open something, see what happens etc before we then open up further.

If vaccination doesn't massively suppress deaths/stress on the NHS to the point where it's a non story, or say similar to flu in story value, then where next. Lockdown and restrictions until what exactly ?

I guess with further, longer periods of restrictions you can notionally drive infection rates down enough to the point where testing really can pick up on tiny outbreaks. Or do we lockdown until we have 2 x, 3x the size of the NHS. Hope the roadmap sets out a few what-ifs with a decent amount of transparency.

Accelerate over 50s and open up in full a couple of weeks after they're all done.

At the very least the narrative should change from why don't we restrict more (zero coviders should be cancelled and locked away as bad for morale) to why don't we lift restrictions quicker
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« Reply #3857 on: February 21, 2021, 09:40:21 AM »

More good news from Israel*

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-56143126

Restrictions are starting to be removed and the Pfizer vaccine is still stopping nearly all hospitalisations and deaths.  

Note that they are still going to be practicing social distancing and mask wearing, presumably because a significant part of the population are not vaccinated yet.

They are vaccinating at more than double our speed in proportion to population, so guess we'll be in a similar vaccination situation in late March.  Hopefully we get lots of good data from them, so can open up safely using this data.  

* This is Israel ignoring the occupied territories.  I don't want to go too far down that path, but the roll out in all territories controlled by Israel has been very uneven.
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« Reply #3858 on: February 21, 2021, 09:54:59 AM »

What is the logic to a gradual re-opening, open something, see what happens etc before we then open up further.

If vaccination doesn't massively suppress deaths/stress on the NHS to the point where it's a non story, or say similar to flu in story value, then where next. Lockdown and restrictions until what exactly ?

I guess with further, longer periods of restrictions you can notionally drive infection rates down enough to the point where testing really can pick up on tiny outbreaks. Or do we lockdown until we have 2 x, 3x the size of the NHS. Hope the roadmap sets out a few what-ifs with a decent amount of transparency.

Accelerate over 50s and open up in full a couple of weeks after they're all done.

At the very least the narrative should change from why don't we restrict more (zero coviders should be cancelled and locked away as bad for morale) to why don't we lift restrictions quicker

I was writing my post as you wrote yours, but I assume they want to try and do things that are permanent.   I think the narrative has moved with most just arguing over how quicly we ease restrictions.  I can't see us doubling the size of the NHS, though guess the increased ICU capacity will be here for some time.

 Switching rules frequently, and different rules in different places, has clearly led to some people assuming they don't know what they are doing.  I think there was some truth in that originally, as I have spent much less time rececently wondering why they are doing some stupid thing, or other, to thinking they are mostly on the right path.

I don't really think zero coviders, or the other extreme should be cancelled.  I just wish they would all use current data and didn't deliberately mislead.  I don't think zero Coviders, or let the virus rip people, matter so much; they can make a lot of noise, but they aren't a majority view and both look unlikely to get their way now.
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« Reply #3859 on: February 21, 2021, 10:29:58 AM »

Agree, the general direction (since vaccination became a serious option) seems mostly sound.

The small exceptions to this do still grate with me - ie freely associating outdoors is pretty much zero risk but there are restrictions. Also, quite a lot of hospitality and shop environments were very unlikely to be major areas of transmission but they're closed.

The lack of nuance, or maybe the lack of ability for people to deal with nuance - leading to restrictions for longer periods is a frustration to me and massively damaging to people and small businesses.
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« Reply #3860 on: February 21, 2021, 11:11:56 AM »

Agree, the general direction (since vaccination became a serious option) seems mostly sound.

The small exceptions to this do still grate with me - ie freely associating outdoors is pretty much zero risk but there are restrictions. Also, quite a lot of hospitality and shop environments were very unlikely to be major areas of transmission but they're closed.

The lack of nuance, or maybe the lack of ability for people to deal with nuance - leading to restrictions for longer periods is a frustration to me and massively damaging to people and small businesses.

I think pretty much most things outside are safe.  I am not sure I'd want to be amongst 500 on a narrow path not long after the start of my local parkrun, but would be happy for my daughter to start playing netball outside.  I think pretty much all outside eating is safe so long as people keep a reasonable distance.  Shops are safer than pubs as all interactions should be short.  Having a Covid positive person walk past you in a shop is going to be very low risk; sat on the table next to them for 2 hours inside a pub is the opposite.   

I think a lot of the issue is caused by not explaining the differences to people and then once you have, opening up beer gardens etc.  It has been known to be a lot safer to drink outide than meet in people's houses for 12 months now.   I think the times where a mask outside is going to make a significant  difference are mimimal.   So when I see people in Florida wandering round without masks and sat outside bars then I don't really see why anyone would think that was massively unsafe. 

I don't think they are doing much wrong here right now. 
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« Reply #3861 on: February 21, 2021, 03:47:12 PM »

 Wouldn't want to be in Boris's shoes tomorrow......he is going to get well criticized whatever he does.

 I wonder if it will be a bit like the budget. Generally very taxing and safe, but at the end he pulls out a surprise rabbit ...... and gives some more freedom earlier than expected (Easter?)
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« Reply #3862 on: February 22, 2021, 04:06:01 PM »

So this virus will either kill half a million people in the uk or will be the biggest amount of hype since Corbyn election victory.

Does anyone have any interesting links to either the basic science or infection rates in different  countries?

The Chinese raw data is here

http://garnetcdn.migu.cn/lovebridge.html

Chinese data is of course impressionistic, linked to the truth but not exactly reflective of reality.


Nice of Mr Johnson to give his announcement on the 1 year anniversary of this thread.

JC has vanished, and even his brother gets more press at this time.

 Sadly 500k died in the USA, with the UK a quarter of that, history will be the judge of how well or badly each of the has done.

The UK has done very well with vaccines, let’s hope the EU can catch up so that the UK population has destinations to be able to go in holiday this summer.

Cases today are -11% yet deaths  -27% (per week) I think this will continue for the year, vaccines are stopping deaths but cases still running through the unvaccinated population are going to be high.

Science is winning but a few months before we can declare victory.
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« Reply #3863 on: February 22, 2021, 04:19:46 PM »

JC just appeared on bbc news!   First time i have seen him for a while.   The unlock all seems reasonable time wise. 7 weeks today for a swim and a haircut and an outdoor pint.
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« Reply #3864 on: February 22, 2021, 04:47:28 PM »

Betting shops 12 April and casinos 17 May i assume from the unlock breakdown.  Anyone heard confirmation?  Big loss for horse racing with Grand National on 10 April.   Plenty of once a year punters bet in the shops.   Just kills them off even quicker as more and more will be driven to the online apps.
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« Reply #3865 on: February 23, 2021, 11:05:34 AM »

Can someone explain what the PM means when he says that the plan for easing Covid restrictions is "irriversable"?

What happens if a new variant starts killing everyone?
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« Reply #3866 on: February 23, 2021, 11:52:39 AM »

Can someone explain what the PM means when he says that the plan for easing Covid restrictions is "irriversable"?

What happens if a new variant starts killing everyone?

Then it becomes reversible!

I think as always it just political crap, based on what he knows now, the current situation, if everything goes to plan, and nothing changes then and only then it is probably 100% completely irreversible*

*Maybe
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« Reply #3867 on: February 23, 2021, 04:46:27 PM »

I spoke to a colleague in Italy today, he'd just booked his parents, both over 80, for a vaccination on 21st May. Incredible what we've achieved really.

As for irreversible, that's what it should be (although it's obviously a nonsense statement that Labour now parrot as well) - people have got to stop being so dramatic and risk averse - it's just not normal. The idea that when a mutant variation kills a few people more than an existing variant a new lockdown is triggered while we assess and wait for a newly engineered vaccine is tooooooooooo ridiculous.


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« Reply #3868 on: February 23, 2021, 04:55:39 PM »

I spoke to a colleague in Italy today, he'd just booked his parents, both over 80, for a vaccination on 21st May. Incredible what we've achieved really.

As for irreversible, that's what it should be (although it's obviously a nonsense statement that Labour now parrot as well) - people have got to stop being so dramatic and risk averse - it's just not normal. The idea that when a mutant variation kills a few people more than an existing variant a new lockdown is triggered while we assess and wait for a newly engineered vaccine is tooooooooooo ridiculous.




They got me for a few minutes to be honest.

30% more deadly!!! Shitttt!

Oh you mean 0.7% becomes 0.9% not 0.7% becomes 30.7%.
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« Reply #3869 on: February 24, 2021, 10:53:51 PM »


Mostly good news again.

Firtly some bad news to get past.  The CMI have released their latest report and deaths were still 47% higher than expected a couple of weeks ago(this was age adjusted).  The good news is that was down on the week before, but their age adjusted figures are now showing over 100k exceess deaths in total, so I don't think there is much of an argument that at least 100,000 peole have died of Covid in the UK now).

On to all the good news.

Last week, cases were in the range 10k to 15k for the whole of the UK, right now they are very much about to go through 10k, so I think next week we'll see a string of reported cases in 4 figures.

The trend in deaths has been much more negative, with rates now falling by about 30% a week.  Deaths were probably below 500 a day in England this time last week.  There may still be some lag in that number, but the number today is probably very close to the level where lockdown 2 ended.  Some of this effect is likely due to vaccinations now, as the trend in the reduction is accelerating, and over half the deaths have been in the over 80s.

Hospitalisations are falling too, but slower than deaths.  The hospitalisation rate has fallen from 4k a day to 1.5k a day for the whole UK, but there are still 21k Covid patients in hospital (peak was near 40K).

ICU is where we are seeing the slowest reductions.  There are now 2,800 patients on ventilators, which is down from 4k at peak.

This is all in line with some predictions the actuaries response group made some time ago.  Cases fall most rapidly, followed by deaths, hospitalisations and finally ICU beds.  This may not be obvious, but it is due to middle aged people still having a fairly significant hospitalisation rate even if deaths amongst that group aren't that high.  Models can still be pretty good at this stuff (Hi Ivor).

We are now over 15m vaccinations too, and I still think the numbers are brilliant each week when I see them. 

Away from the UK figures, some of the Scottish figures are realeased quicker than those that are UK wide, in particular the deaths by age group.  There appears to be a noticeable falling off in mortality amongst the over 80s and those in care homes in Scotland.  Deaths in care homes in Scotland are now showing below average for the time of year.  I expect some of that will be data lag, but that is still remarkable.  I think it must be clear by now that this is down to vaccination (rather than HcQ, Zinc and split seasonality curves or whatever it was Ivor was claiming, but maybe there was a heat wave last week?)

https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1362036927294279687       



Some good news this week, but some worrying signs.

Firstly vaccinations. I guess there must be some supply issues, but vaccination numbers seem to be dropping noticeably right now.  The latest figures over the last week of figures are down about 25% on average.  I can't really add much, as I can't recall seeing any explanation (I haven't read much this week, as I was a bit relaxed about how we were going).

Cases:  The cases numbers are not dropping as much as I expected either.  For the last couple of weeks I have been expecting us to drop below 10,000 cases a day. but up until yesterday, we have only really been doing so at the weekend.  Cases seem to be falling by only around 10% a week now, which doesn't seem nearly enough to be comfortable.  I checked and there hasn't been a noticeable increase in testing, and as more lateral flow tests are now in place, you'd expect positives to fall on unchanged testing numbers (lateral flow tests are less sensitive).  Up until today, I was looking at the opening up roadmap and not really thinking there was likely to be much of an issue, now I am not sure.  Hopefully the vaccination levels can step up again in the next week or so.

Hospitalisations and deaths are still falling noticeably.  Deaths are still falling by 30% or so a week, which is very positive.  The vaccinations should keep this number falling significantly week on week.  Hospitalisations are likely to fall more slowly if cases don't start dropping at faster rates again. 

I don't do many Sweden updates, but their cases are rising again, and I don't think their deaths haven't been falling as rapidly as ours (the data lag is bad there).  You'd almost think they had found nirvana reading some people's tweets.  I don't know what we can learn from this.  The people of Sweden aren't entirely free right now either, but don't have vaccination rates as high as ours, and there is bound to be some seasonality in cases/deaths.  Their numbers must still be a bit of a worry though, given we are expecting to be heading into the end of all restrictions in a few months.

I think we just have to wait and see right now.  Maybe next week will be more positive again.  I am still quite positive, just not as positive as I was a few days ago.   



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