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Marky147
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« Reply #4275 on: May 27, 2021, 01:41:16 PM »

Should get people like this on TV to talk about it, and not the indie sage mugs!

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1397884961227689984

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Doobs
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« Reply #4276 on: May 27, 2021, 11:36:18 PM »

Should get people like this on TV to talk about it, and not the indie sage mugs!

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1397884961227689984



He is very good, not sure he'd be made for TV.

I've been doing a very good job of avoiding indie Sage for a long time, but came across them by accident during the Dom Cummings AMA.  I looked at Bolton a couple of days ago and wasn't massively worried, they seem to have looked at Bolton and concluded armageddon was coming.

Might try and square the circle tomorrow.   I think they are light on modelling capability, well they were wheh they started.  Anyway too tired right now. 

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Marky147
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« Reply #4277 on: May 27, 2021, 11:42:36 PM »

Good in the way that he wouldn't be trying to scare the daylights out of everyone.

I avoid them where possible, along with the other end of the rainbow, too.

Think we might have a bumpy few weeks, but the vaccines should hopefully ride it out and we'll be ok by end of next month.
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Doobs
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« Reply #4278 on: May 28, 2021, 10:34:09 AM »

Good in the way that he wouldn't be trying to scare the daylights out of everyone.

I avoid them where possible, along with the other end of the rainbow, too.

Think we might have a bumpy few weeks, but the vaccines should hopefully ride it out and we'll be ok by end of next month.

Here you go Marky, a video celebrating "indie" sage. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/allthecitizens/status/1397628789425721344

I heard one of them earlier saying vaccine hesitancy was to blame for the "surge" in Indian variant was a nonsense.  The reality is that it is partially to blame, along with not putting India on the red list earlier.  It isn't an either/or thing.


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Marky147
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« Reply #4279 on: May 28, 2021, 02:09:51 PM »

Not sure I can manage 16 minutes of them.

Glad we're almost out of this, as it's painful listening to them all.

In fairness, that's much better than most of them come across on Twitter.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2021, 02:19:33 PM by Marky147 » Logged

Marky147
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« Reply #4280 on: May 28, 2021, 02:36:57 PM »

J&J approved now, which should help being a one and done.
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« Reply #4281 on: May 28, 2021, 03:01:30 PM »

This has just popped up on Stuart McDonald's twitter.

It shows that Bolton and Blackburn have had higher than expected vaccine uptake when compared to median ages.  I think Bedford is below the line.



The results from Bolton and Blackburn may be in part due to more focus on vaccination in areas that are most affected by the new strain.
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« Reply #4282 on: May 28, 2021, 03:43:05 PM »

I was based at DISC Chicksands for 18months, so Bedford doesn't surprise me Cheesy
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« Reply #4283 on: May 28, 2021, 04:12:27 PM »

Oooh

Over 4k cases today

But

Hospital cases drop under 900 again

Hold your nerve Boris!
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Doobs
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« Reply #4284 on: May 28, 2021, 04:19:03 PM »


Another weekly update

Deaths are down again this week from 64 to 55 (week to 12 May, England only).  It is 14%, but at these levels a couple of deaths either way would make it 10% or near 20%, so I can't really say the improvement is slowing.

Hospitalisations.   They are still just over 100 a day.   There seems to be some slowing here, which is probably just a reflection of the levelling off in cases over the last 2 or 3 weeks.  I read something the other day saying that the majority of hospitalisations are now amongst the unvaccinated.  I haven't checked it, but it seems plausible.  If true there is a massive difference in Covid outcomes between the vaccinated and unvaccinated.  Vaccination rates are so high in the UK now with over 95% of the other 55s have had at least one dose, and 90% of those over 70 have had two). 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1aLtyXUUAY-PrQ?format=png&name=900x900   

Finally cases.  i don't think there is much evidence either way whether cases are going up or down with levels still around 2,000 a day 1  Zoe App is reporting an R of 1.1, but also has cases as about 2,000 a day. 

Meanwhile, Clare Path is reporting that all cases are "false positive" and have been for some time https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1394647083207077888/photo/1.  Weird how Australia has a "false positive rate" of only 0.2% this week and that the only "false positives" in the last 7 days are from people who have just arrived there.  It is almost as if they aren't false positives at all.

I don't see any very worrying signs right now, and drinking booze is probably OK anywhere in the UK.   

Given it is past Wednesday. I am going to do an update. 

I am thinking this will be the last slightly positive update for a while.

Deaths halved in the week up to 19 May, but it is very unlikely they will go lower, as the provisional figures look higher going forward.

Hospitalisations.  They did drop beloe 100 for 3 days, but have been stubbornly above 100 every day since the 17 May.

Cases.  The cases are now above 3,000 a day for the first time since the first week in April.

Vaccinations have been holding up though with a steadily increasing trend in both first and second vaccinations.

I think it is all about the hotpsots now.  You can actually see the data at hospital level; and as an example Bedfordshire is getting 2 hospitalisations a day right now versus 25 a day at the beginning of February.  Bolton is getting 5 a day vs 24 at the beginning of February.  You can see on the visualisations that the mean age of each patient is much lower now and they are more likely to be vaccinated than not (even if more than half are not vaccinated as is claimed).  So even in the hotspots we aren't going to be seeing deaths at the levels we saw earlier in the year anytime soon. 

I think it is pretty clear now that the dominant Indian variant is probably about 50% more transmissible than the Kent variant, but I don't think we know enough about how likely it is to kill us.  I have read that the first vaccine dose offers less protecion than before, but they think you get similar levels of protection after two vaccinations.  Overall deaths are unlikely to be much more than 10% of previous levels. 

So overall, there are some worrying signs, but don't think we should worry too much. 

For more into, John Burns Murdoch has done some good work on the Indian variant here https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1397995466701344769.

 
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« Reply #4285 on: May 28, 2021, 05:35:59 PM »

Get this J&J into arms as well as firing up in the worst affected areas, and we should be good to go without too much aggro.

That coupled with better weather coming, after a few shit weeks where people will have been mixing more indoors, too.
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Marky147
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« Reply #4286 on: June 02, 2021, 06:24:03 PM »

Need to get jabbing, and double lively.
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StuartHopkin
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« Reply #4287 on: June 02, 2021, 07:39:44 PM »

Need to get jabbing, and double lively.

Prefer Doobs' Wednesday updates to be honest, little more detailed....

 Tongue
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Marky147
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« Reply #4288 on: June 02, 2021, 07:41:10 PM »

Need to get jabbing, and double lively.

Prefer Doobs' Wednesday updates to be honest, little more detailed....

 Tongue

You'd probably prefer mine, this week Grin
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Marky147
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« Reply #4289 on: June 02, 2021, 09:03:30 PM »

Some not so good news from James Ward https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1400090668719017988



Some better news to end the day https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1400178942678609920
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