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Author Topic: Spin & Go up swings and down swings  (Read 2957 times)
mikeymike2
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« on: July 27, 2020, 03:02:17 PM »

Anybody know roughly the down swings for these Spins - i have probably just set the record for a hundred (100) buy ins and consecutively lost each one - though my up swing was 80 buy ins - just presume there must be more variance due to shorter starting stack and the fact you have more all ins from the start

any views -
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teddybloat
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2020, 06:50:22 PM »

the variance in them is insane and multifaceted

you have all the normal variance such as when you go all in what the result is, but then there are layers of variance on top

prize pool variance.
you can run below EV in spinning non 2x prize pools.
you can also be unlucky and run bad in the high prize pools that you do end up in
you can run bad in the number of btns you are dealt into. you wont have an equal number of BTN, SB and BB in any given playing period. the BTN is by far your most profitable position so if you end up playing fewer buttons this will reduce your winrate.
you can run bad in the players you are paired with. the difference in winrate v recreational and regs will be wildly different so having more 2 reg games rather than 2 rec games will reduce your winrate.

all these can compound on top of each other. so you can spin more than your fair share of 2x games and then get lots of regs, few buttons and run bad in card distribution and allin variance in all your higher multipliers.

downswings are unavoidable in these games, 100 buyin downswings will happen

you can model the swings using the excellent free swongsim prrogram:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/168/free-software/swongsim-roi-variance-simulator-lottery-payout-sngs-2k-post-1468580/

i stopped playing them last year after the rake and structure changes.

if you want me to glance over your stats, especially your heads up section i might be able to give you some pointers, depending on what stake you play [im a former midstakes player, now playing hu casually at low stakes]

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mikeymike2
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2020, 08:31:07 PM »

Thanks for a great reply - YOU HAVE JUST MADE ME REALISE THAT I KNOW JACKSHIT ABOUT POKER -

ended up playing  these spins for 5 days though put in 8+ hrs a day because i am not keen on the software of GG. As I made the daily leader board each day so will take my profit which has come in the form of wsop tickets which if i leave on the account until wsop is over get converted into tourn dollars so will play one mtt with it.

Back to the cash games on PS

Interesting i have never played Spins on PS but they have sent me an offer to deposit and get $$$ worth of spins in free tickets spooky

Cheers for a great reply and i am looking at the 2p2 link as i type - yes men can multi task -
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teddybloat
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2020, 08:39:36 PM »

respect to the grind

8hr swinging in spins would send me mad, and i love playing poker

is a skill in itself

gl mate
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tonytats
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2020, 08:26:58 PM »

My GFS son brand new to poker has won 2-3 $3-$5 buyins $1200-$1500 wins
So he had an odd $20 n put on a slot $1 auto spins at tenth spin he won a scratch card n revealed $12855.52
$500 on a 5-1 sure fire ? Horse won by a neck
It’s all downhill from now
Fair play to him he’s cashed out $18 k
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EvilPie
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2020, 01:52:23 PM »

My GFS son brand new to poker has won 2-3 $3-$5 buyins $1200-$1500 wins
So he had an odd $20 n put on a slot $1 auto spins at tenth spin he won a scratch card n revealed $12855.52
$500 on a 5-1 sure fire ? Horse won by a neck
It’s all downhill from now
Fair play to him he’s cashed out $18 k


Probably the worst possible way to start a gambling 'career'.

Hopefully you can help explain the realities of it all to him.....
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Motivational speeches at their best:

"Because thats what living is, the 6 inches in front of your face......" - Patrick Leonard - 10th May 2015
Marky147
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2020, 03:13:48 PM »

What a life!

As Matt says, take him for a couple Roulette sessions when the casinos open, and teach him quickly Cheesy
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