The blonde Golf thread

[Pokerpops]

...and now for something completely different & really quite sensational (if true).

I was watching the LPGA (Ladies) golf at the weekend, the Joburg Ladies Open, & the commentators mentioned a really weird stat featuring New Zealander Amelia Garvey. She's not a world-beater (World Ranking 142) but had a good Tournament, finishing 13th.

So I went over to Wiki to check it, & sure enough, the stat was confirmed on there...


In 2024, during the final round of the Royal St Cloud Women's Championship on the NXXT Women's Pro Tour in Florida, Garvey made history being the first professional golfer to record a par, birdie, eagle, hole in one, and albatross all in one round, a one in 4.5 trillion likelihood.[9] She also had a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and a 6 on her scorecard.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amelia_Garvey





It's so unlikely that it's a struggle to believe it happened, but all the google searches seem to confirm it, as did the commentators on the TV.

I'm also a bit perplexed how they worked out the odds of 4.5 trillion to one, or whatever it actually was. How would they work that out?

Doobs is better qualified to answer this, but they are multiplying the odds, as they see them, of each event.
The key question is about how they arrive at the odds of each event.
A quick search says that a hole in one is a 1/12500 shot across all golfers and a 1/2500 for a pro.
No doubt similar stats can be found for birdies pars and albatrosses and all will be in a similar range.
That being said, I think it’s safe to say that it is an unlikely set of scores in a single round.

But then, were led to believe that the sequence of each shuffled deck of cards is ‘unique’ but that doesn’t stop my opponent hitting a one-outer on the river at a frequency that is annoyingly recurrent.

[doubleup]

The albatross is huge odds in itself - according to the internet 1 milllion to one for pro's (male presumably). So multiply that by the hole in one odds and you get the huge figure. The actual 1 2 3 4 5 6 on the card doesn't require an albatross, so I would think the odds of that aren't a huge amount more than the hole in one.

[EssexPhil]

Not that simple, I'm afraid.

On Pro Golf, since 2001, there have been 8 holes in 1 on Par 4. 2 by women. Which satisfies both the hole in 1 and albatross at the same time.

That 4.5 billion to 1 is, I suspect, confusing (in poker terms) the odds of hitting quads with getting As, Ah, and in that order. One is very unlikely-the other massively unlikely

[doubleup]

The par four hole in one might slightly change hole in one stats, but not albatross stats. I assume the lady in question holed in one and albatrossed different holes (as otherwise the achievement wouldn't be so noteworthy). So (leaving aside multiple opportunities through the round) the odds of it occuring are the product of the odds multiplied.

[EssexPhil]

I just don't get these million to 1 odds.

Top lady golfers now hit up to 290 yards off the tee. The minimum yardage for a ladies Par 5 is 401 yards, and 450 yards is common.

If someone is telling me that if there are (say) 3 Par 5 holes between 401 and 499 yards, and that it is a million to 1 chance that a lady hits a good drive and then holes an iron from between 120-200 yards, then I'm taking those odds.

The Par 5 become Par 4 effectively. Trillions to 1 someone hits a hole in 1, another eagle and a birdie in the same round? Show me the bookie

[doubleup]

yes I agree that the albatross odds seem a little high, but they are very likely the odds used in the wikipedia article hence the huge figure

[Pokerpops]

I just don't get these million to 1 odds.

Top lady golfers now hit up to 290 yards off the tee. The minimum yardage for a ladies Par 5 is 401 yards, and 450 yards is common.

If someone is telling me that if there are (say) 3 Par 5 holes between 401 and 499 yards, and that it is a million to 1 chance that a lady hits a good drive and then holes an iron from between 120-200 yards, then I'm taking those odds.

The Par 5 become Par 4 effectively. Trillions to 1 someone hits a hole in 1, another eagle and a birdie in the same round? Show me the bookie

The bookies have learnt a lot about golf odds since 1991
https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/hole-in-one-betting-coup/

[EssexPhil]

That last 1 in that article is, logically, longer odds than this one.

Incidentally, the lady in the original article did ace a par 3, and the albatross/eagle were at par 5 holes

[RED-DOG]

What about me though? I played to the wrong green.

[Pokerpops]

That last 1 in that article is, logically, longer odds than this one.

Incidentally, the lady in the original article did ace a par 3, and the albatross/eagle were at par 5 holes

The 12th at Woodhall Spa has a plaque commemorating it having been halved in one at some point in the past.

[Karabiner]

What about me though? I played to the wrong green.

You must have been playing on a strange course for the first time Tom which makes it forgivable and very hard to price up.

[Kev B]

What about me though? I played to the wrong green.

Idiot. Hoodwinked. Like being outwitted by Dick Dastardly. Hang your head in shame 🤣🤣🤣

[Eck]

I was horrendous on Saturday in the medal. Lost my swing completely and played absolutely clueless almost embarrassing golf. I am a bit of a tinkerer with my golf swing in the endless search for something close to perfection and sometimes the new swing ideas seem to erase a basic fundamental, as there's only room in my skull for so many swing thoughts, and on Saturday I was topping fairway woods which are usually my favourite clubs, and smothering all of my iron shots, even short irons - it was the stuff of nightmares and I couldn't figure out how to fix it at the time. Returned a 95 net 80 with breaking 100 the only bright spot.

I remembered the fundamental that had temporarily slipped my mind today and shot a soothing 85 off the yellows which included a few 3putts, but it came as a great relief to dispel Saturday's horror-show as I feared I might play like that for evermore in some kind of Greek mythological golfer's Hades.

A couple of days off now to do chores etc. then it's the first Senior Medal on Thursday.

I'm reading this Ralph and laughing. Not at you it was about exactly what I was going to post. Saturday medal started off fine again par first 4 (but really feeling I've not hit the ball well). Then it all kicked in tops, chunks the lot. It was really windy but was honestly standing over it with no idea what I was trying to do ended up with a 92. Played on Monday morning with a fresh head and again started ok birdie at first but it went sour again. Played some nice shots got another birdie and should have had at least one more but the bad ones are all doubles or triples. The ground is still quite wet and some dodgy lies when missing greens so hoping the nicer weather brings a bit firmer turf and grassier lies.

Kev, trip looked amazing seen all the pics and videos of FB was only slighlty jealous honest

Tony that's some shady behaviour, its a game for gentlemen don't you know. Thought I'd strayed back in to a poker thread there with the talk of odds and stories of angle shooting 

[Kev B]

I was horrendous on Saturday in the medal. Lost my swing completely and played absolutely clueless almost embarrassing golf. I am a bit of a tinkerer with my golf swing in the endless search for something close to perfection and sometimes the new swing ideas seem to erase a basic fundamental, as there's only room in my skull for so many swing thoughts, and on Saturday I was topping fairway woods which are usually my favourite clubs, and smothering all of my iron shots, even short irons - it was the stuff of nightmares and I couldn't figure out how to fix it at the time. Returned a 95 net 80 with breaking 100 the only bright spot.

I remembered the fundamental that had temporarily slipped my mind today and shot a soothing 85 off the yellows which included a few 3putts, but it came as a great relief to dispel Saturday's horror-show as I feared I might play like that for evermore in some kind of Greek mythological golfer's Hades.

A couple of days off now to do chores etc. then it's the first Senior Medal on Thursday.

I'm reading this Ralph and laughing. Not at you it was about exactly what I was going to post. Saturday medal started off fine again par first 4 (but really feeling I've not hit the ball well). Then it all kicked in tops, chunks the lot. It was really windy but was honestly standing over it with no idea what I was trying to do ended up with a 92. Played on Monday morning with a fresh head and again started ok birdie at first but it went sour again. Played some nice shots got another birdie and should have had at least one more but the bad ones are all doubles or triples. The ground is still quite wet and some dodgy lies when missing greens so hoping the nicer weather brings a bit firmer turf and grassier lies.

Kev, trip looked amazing seen all the pics and videos of FB was only slighlty jealous honest

Tony that's some shady behaviour, its a game for gentlemen don't you know. Thought I'd strayed back in to a poker thread there with the talk of odds and stories of angle shooting 

Thanks Eck, still buzzing after playing those beautiful couses with my lovely and talented son.