Call? Tough festival decision

[Raindogs]

Hmm....

FOLD.  You have an Ace but he could have an Ace with a better kicker.

I think J's or better would re-raise as would AK.  AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, medium PP are possible calls depending on the player.  He may be making a loose call to establish a strong image at the table.

If he had called with KQ or KJ and seen that flop after you had raised pre flop what could he do to get some more money out of you ?  If he checks and you have an Ace you will probably bet out around half or the full pot.  If he calls, chances are you will be getting suspicious given the board.  Would you bet out again after he called ? If he bets out after you checked would you fold ?  A check call on the flop is a pretty standard trapping play and a good player will get suspicious pretty quickly given the board.   If he has you down as a good experienced player, he knows that if you bet out and get called you may not bet the turn and fold to any significant river bet.  But if he plays it like a maniac and goes all in and you have an Ace you may think the all in represents a weak Ace or a PP like 10's or J's.  Or you may think he is a maniac trying to represent a K with a wild move.   

Would he go all in with a weak Ace ?  I don't think so because there is a good chance he will get called if you hold an Ace.  If you don't have a Ace or K you would probably fold to a pot sized bet given the board.  He might feel that by not going all in he would be leaving himself open to an all in bluff re-raise, but if you hold a better Ace or a K he is in trouble, and trying a bluff on that board would be very dodgy.  You have represented strength preflop (was it an almost full table ?) the only way he is going to know if his hand is good is to bet out and an all in bet in this spot doesn't make any sense to me.

The guy may have been a nutjob but he may have decided that his best chance to milk the situation was to act weak by going all in hoping that you had an Ace and not a K. 

[NoflopsHomer]

Fold....you are risking your like to win a pot that had only 2800 before he pushed in. You only invested 3X the BB which to me you got some great information.

 I know if you call and are right, he has 66 or something you are in the drivers seat but you are above average still and now realize that the new player to the table is reckless or plays huge hands badly.

You fold, compliment him on a well played hand and nail him for everything he has in the next hour.

[RobS]

If there was two of the same suit on the flop I think I would call as this is the sort of bet you often see from someone with a flush draw.

However on this board it's difficult to put him on a king with the huge overbet so the only hands you are behind to are AQ and AJ.

I would call unless there were a lot of weak players left in the tournament, if that's the case you could fold as you have time to wait for opportunities where you are certain you're in front.

[KeithyB]

Looks to me like he has a strong King judging by the call and then the big all-in is designed to look like a bluff.   After all if he has an Ace then why risk most of his stack when you could easily have a King ?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I’d also consider the following…….

You have to assume that he has some ability to get this far in the tournament and therefore is not making a stupid play. 

The fact that he’s only just arrived at your table means that whilst you don’t know his style of play neither does he know yours.

He is not under immediate pressure to make a big move.

AKK is not really a great flop for A10.

20k chips is not dramatically worse than 23k

My tournament life is on the line here and the money’s not far away. 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Having considered all these points it’s a fold for me.

It’s not clearcut by any means though, which is backed up by the varied replies so far, as you could be ahead.  However, for me, there is too much risk to justify the call.

[KeithyB]

Just thought that possibly a more aggressive player, with eyes only on the overall win rather than just a place in the money, might see this as a reasonable opportunity to try and double up therefore making it worth the risk and justifying a call?   

[KeithyB]

Just thought that possibly a more aggressive player, with eyes only on the overall win rather than just a place in the money, might see this as a reasonable opportunity to try and double up therefore making it worth the risk and justifying a call?   

Who let my alter ego out?         It's a definite fold.....then grind them down to win the tourny!!   

[TightEnd]

thanks for the replies, I thought and thought over this one

I really struggled to put him on a King. I thought about what I would do with a King there...I would check and hope for a continuation bet and then call or do the check raise...whatever

With 20k+ chips he needs to take advantage of his big hands and I couldn't see what action his all in was going to get unless I had a case King or AA. It felt like a horrible bet to make. If I make an all in bet there I think I am only called if I am losing.

Having decided he didn't have a king I then turned to what he had. Surely AA,AQ etc re-raise me pre flop. Maybe not. Maybe he has Ax. Maybe not. I talked myself into believing my hand was good, after I had been put on the clock.

I decided that I had a chance to double up. I was on a tough table with Wernick, Marc Goodwin and a scandie to my right. Time to back my judgement

I called. He smiled

He turned over

 

I exited, complimenting my foe on an excellent bet, with hindsight. It achieved exactly what it was designed to achieve, a call from an Ace would couldn't put him on trip Kings

Again with hindsight it was a clear fold...plenty of time to play and plenty of chances to get the raise bet back off him.

[temp0r]

it's a 50/50 decision becuase from how he's played it i'd put him on A9-6. but he might be smart enough to pull off a double bluff for all you know. it's a big tourney afterall. he might be semi-pro? or very experienced and knows you'll put him on a weak ace.

so it's simple. you stare him down. stare him down for an ages. if you can pick up any weakness that doesn't look forced then i'd call. if not. fold. as you haven't lost much anyway.

[rivered]

Good post Tightend... interesting hand... I think these types of plays will be used more often as people try to break the harrington mould and use new tactics...  I do this a fair bit on line in the lower limit games and it works a fair bit because people are more willing to throw them in online.  Never tried it live though...

[Royal Flush]

Tighty, does he know you?

I say this because i might well make the same play at you, i know you are not an 'any 2 from the cutoff' player, if you are raising you more often than not have a decentish starting hand so i would have also put you on the ace. Then the move in is my natural play on the flop. If however the pre flop raiser was someone like yoyo/chubs etc then i am checking the flop or a weak lead to let them get creative.


Either way just keep on churning those results out!

[Dubai]

I call instantly then buy him a bunch of bananas after I see his hand.

[TightEnd]

Tighty, does he know you?

 i know you are not an 'any 2 from the cutoff' player,

don't know him at all


just keep believing I'm a rock....


Thanks for the feedback everyone

[Royal Flush]

I call instantly then buy him a bunch of bananas after I see his hand.

PMSL

[b4matt]

Greta thread tighty