Expected Value......

[Cas-Az]

Ive only been playin Poker for 2 years and for the past few months ive been reading a lot of book's etc learning about the game a lot more indepth........

Or trying.....

Im baffled when it comes to EV.

Can anybody give me a 'Dummies Guide' or point me in the right direction as to where i can learn about this??

Cheers

[creepy_benji]

EV stands for Expected Value, it is the amount of money you are expected to win when you go all in before the river.

Lets say you would import one hand into HEM, where you went allin as a 60/40 favourite, and the pot is 100$
Your EV is 60$, since you have 60% equity in a 100$ pot.
If you lose the pot however, you get 0$, thus your winnings are 0$, but your $ EV is still 60$.
Basically it tells you if you're running good or bad and how much you would have won if luck wasnt a factor.
So if your $ EV is greater than your actual winnings then you're running bad,
but if the $ EV is less than your actual winning you are running good.
I hope that clears it up for you.


Ripped from another poster from another site.

[AlexMartin]

 I think HEM uses EV purely in hands that went to showdown. You can also calculate EV in hands when you anticipate your opponent will sometimes fold and want to factor in FE.

Formula is :

p - chances he will fold
eq - your equity if called in the final pot
s - amount you put when raising/betting allin
pot = pot just before your allin bet/raise

EV = (p*pot) + (1-p) * (eq - s)

(1-p) is of course probability of him calling and (eq-s) is amount you lose on average when called;

[outragous76]

EV stands for Expected Value, it is the amount of money you are expected to win when you go all in before the river.

Lets say you would import one hand into HEM, where you went allin as a 60/40 favourite, and the pot is 100$
Your EV is 60$, since you have 60% equity in a 100$ pot.
If you lose the pot however, you get 0$, thus your winnings are 0$, but your $ EV is still 60$.
Basically it tells you if you're running good or bad and how much you would have won if luck wasnt a factor.
So if your $ EV is greater than your actual winnings then you're running bad,
but if the $ EV is less than your actual winning you are running good.I hope that clears it up for you.


Ripped from another poster from another site.

The first bit is a good explanation, the scribed bit is not the best!

EV is just one way of expressing your ......... expected value........... in any situation (before the money goes in).

However you should be careful how you apply it! The likes of Flushy will probably never pass up a +EV spot - because he plays enough volume to smooth out the variance factor, and therefore always taking +ev spots means that he should win in the long run (especially if making his play unexpolitable too - which i believe he does (sorry if im wrong flushy))

However, if you dont play sick volume - sometimes EV  isnt your only decission making factor (i know i will get flamed for saying that).

I more like Alex's interpretation  - where you assess your EV in the hand in order to make a decission. Of course with poker being a game of incomplete information you can only make your best assessment. EV is usually expressed in the number of chips you  will gain by making the play rather than a percentage as shown here.

Understand what the concept is - understand how to interpret it - but IMO - dont use it as a sole judgement for a play! It is often a good tool to evaluate your play retrospectively and learn and recall for future use in simialr spots!

[Cf]

The simplest example of EV can probably be given ignoring poker completely. I'm going to use the coinflip.

Let's say we flip a coin, and I offer you an even money bet of £10. If you win you recieve £20. If you lose you recieve £0.  On average in the long you will win £10. £10 -> £10 gives you an EV of £0.

If I pay you 2-1 then you have a +EV bet. If you win you recieve £30. If you lose you recieve £0. On average you will win £15. £10 -> £15 gives you an EV of +£5 every time you make this bet.

And obviously if I pay you less than evens then it's -EV.


Pretty much the same principle applies to poker, though obviously with incomplete information. Assign a range to your oponnent, work out the % chance of you winning, how much the bet is, size of the pot etc, and work out your EV The formula posted covers that, but in most situations, especially live low buyin tournies you don't need to get this technical.

[creepy_benji]

I think the worst bit about HEM is that it calculates EV only after the last cent goes in the pot, so you could put $100 in on the flop with $1 behind, be outdrawn on the turn and put in the final $1 and it wouldn't show that your +EV for the hand.