blonde poker forum

From another site.....


GL to any with the cash to do it :D

It's an arb. There's loads about but this seems to be a decent one. 

Its also an affiliate link on the link to Mansion's site.  This looks like the post of an affiliate out to make a few quick bucks (the original one, not Rod's).

Sheriff

It certainly is an affiliate link, but it's a mad offer so why not plug it.

I'd suggest someone at Blonde commercial HQ gets a Mansion affiliate set up asap and starts plugging the offer.

As another site I read suggested, you can either take the free chance to win $1000 (£580) and risk coming out with  nothing, or you can hedge on another site too and guarantee a profit of about $450 - $500.

Sportsbooks and casinos run promos like these to attract high rollers, but of course they work too for even low rolling poker players since to play (for example) the $100 NLHE online games you will probably have a couple of thousand dollars kicking around in Neteller.

James and I were taking about this last night and I think were both going to do it. As a TOTAL betting newb, is there anyway I can screw this up? I litterally have no idea what I'm doing when it comes to betting.

The Steelers will own Miami.

Own are you sure ?

Culpepper has proved his fitness preseason a massive plus, and Wilkinson(Big Daddy) should help the Miami Defence.

Steelers are 0-3 preseason, Roethlisberger is still injured and the Superbowl hangover is still evident.

Don't get me wrong Steelers are the class of the match up, but I think the spread will be alot closer then many think.

Anyone else think Miami are a good bet for their division - as much due to the very weak divsion and indeed the whole schedule seems 'friendly'.  I have not bet on NFL seriously since uni 10 years ish, but the homework is done, is Betfair my best option ? obviously I cant use Mansion due to the fact I am a Gunner.

I saw this on another forum a while back - the general concensus of opinion was no you cannot fail to make money - you just need to "cover" the bet elsewhere

I believe they have ran a similar scheme to this recently.

I'm on, no arb tho.. let it fly!

Or sporting Index....

I am in the process of putting a number of positions on for the NFL season, all revolving around one team who I think will have the best defence the NFL has seen for years. The prices available remain incredible value.

 PM service available to selected clients!!!  

As to Miami, they will be much improved in Saban's second year and are are reasonable bet to be challenging in what looks to be an open division. The Patriots are sliding a touch, the Jets and the Bills are behind Miami in their recoveries.

Additions on the offensive side will be a big help to a talented defense.

Like I said I'm a total newb, James talks about covering bets but tbh I have no idea what he's going on about! (he's not exactly patient when it comes to explaining things (what a surprise lol))

and what is an arb?

Jane, the offer from mansion is a bet one ONE game and you get ur money back if you loose.

All you do to cover ur bet is bet on the opposite result on another betting site.

So which ever team wins - you win money ;)

Okay, now that was simple enough, so how do I know where to place the bet on the opposite result, I've sort of glanced over James' shoulder when he's on Betfair (i think) and it just seems to be a list of loads of different numbers lol. How do I pick who to go with? or is that such a stupid question that it doesn't warrant a reply  :dontask:

PM Sent Jane

A friend of mine has raised a point on this which appears vague with regard to Mansion's website.  He thinks the refund would be in the form of bonus money which would need to be cleared before withdrawing.

I don't trust the claims of the affiliate in Rod's post, who has a vested interest in getting sign-ups.  The Mansion site, however, has the following clause in the T&Cs:


This, to me, reads as if the refunds would be deemed to be promotional in nature, and thus subject to being cleared.

Might be worth checking out if you plan to do this.

Sheriff

Nice one Sheriff :)up

The withdrawal policy is as below, I can't find anything else anywhere on the site. It appears to only be concerned with validating identity.


MANSION Withdrawal Policy

The MANSION Withdrawal Policy provides for the provision of identification and documentation in order to verify the age of customers and to protect both MANSION and its valued customers from Internet-based fraud.

Photographic ID

Supplying current, valid photographic ID to MANSION is a prerequisite of any MANSION account holder before making a withdrawal for the first time. This can either be a photographic driving licence or passport.  When sending your ID to MANSION, please make sure that your photograph and signature are clearly visible.

Credit Cards

We will also require a copy of the front and back of every credit card used to make a deposit to an account before a withdrawal can be made. When sending us the copy of the back of your card, please make sure that the signature is clearly visible. If you have any concerns about sending a copy of your card, you may block out parts of the card number (along with the three digit security code on the rear of the card) provided that the last four digits of the card number are clearly visible.

ID can be sent to us in one of three ways:

    * via email to customerservice@mansion.com
    * by fax to +350 41001
    * by post to MANSION Member Services, PO Box 1234, Gibraltar.

ID need only be sent once. When received and processed, your account will be updated and you will be able to request withdrawals from your MANSION account.

If you have any queries regarding withdrawing from your MANSION account, please contact us at customerservice@mansion.com.

amen brother

This basically gives them the right to change it as they see fit at any time.

I also find it odd that the terms of the offer specifically include the following:


Don't get me wrong, it may be perfectly legit and above board as described.  However, if I went ahead with this it'd be a question I'd like a specific answer to beforehand.

Sheriff

Phone support and get those muddas on tape  :D

With a lot of bookies offering free bets, you may have a bet through rate.  It can be anything from 3 times to 10 times so if you get a £100 free bet, you need to bet £300 before you can take it out - just check the t&c's properly and don't expect to be able to withdraw it straight away.

Tighty, if the selected PM's re American Footy was to come my way, I wouldn't object :D

So not my beloved 49ers then  rotflmfao rotflmfao

For more on this offer, I'd suggest checking out this site:

http://suckout.blogspot.com/2006/08/once-more-into-mansion-free-bet-breech.html

I'm on, no arb.

  ;cheerleader; GO STEELERS!  ;cheerleader;

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.html?f=41

Sandy

Steelers have just lost their QB due to an emergency appendix op.

How good is their backup?

and given the +4.5 is fixed, Mansion must be happy. ;goodvevil;

+1 now :D

How does that affect things now then James?

Well given i just put my bet on now quite a lot :D

Explain?

I am about to do mine as well

It just means that Pittsburgh are less likely to win. So your less likely to win if go without the arb. If you choose to go with the arb to lock up the profit it is going to be more expensive, therefore less profit...

Does it make a diffrence to the arb? I am not sure how it does. The only thing that has changed is the point spread.

Paul basically instead of them needing to win by 5 points or more they only need to win by 1 point, those of us who are lazy buggers and waited have got a better chance.

Thats what I thought ;) needed it confirmed though

It only makes a difference to the arb if backed Pittsburgh at -4.5 and were going to lay off but have not yet...

Otherwise, no it doesn't make any difference.

Ok cool you had me worried!

The problem now though is a draw! +1 and -1 fecked if its a draw!

I'm not 100% sure but i think you get refunded on the draw, it counts as a 'push'.

If your going to hedge then you'll need to check.

Bothered, i am up for a gamble!

I wonder what Mansions' liability on this promo is?

I think there will be a few Miami fans in the boardroom on Thursday!

Thats the sick part, i am a Miami fan so i want to back this heavy the other way!

I might have got this completly wrong, but ...

The spread has dropped to zero on mansion now ... and betfair are offering evens on miami.

So with a free £580 bet on pittsburg, can't you just bet £290 on miami using betfair, and guarantee £290 profit?

Yes.

Yes, a bit less after the juice.

what about if you backed the steelers at 4.5?

if they win by 2 pts, you lose the £290 hedged on betfair and only get your stake back from mansion, so you end up losing £290?! wtf am i missing? I feel like an idiot

Excellent ... but to add some fun to it I want to over compensate for one side. i.e win £400 if one team wins and £150ish if the other does. I can juggle the maths myself ... but which team should I go for? Any NFL fans out there?

If you backed them at 4.5 it is a lot harder to lay it off ... but now there is a zero points spread you can do it at any fixed odds betting exchange ... provided they don't offer the draw as an option (As i understand it ... but you better check with wardonkey)

I guess you have to back the other side -4.5 or somethin, create the spread that way. I'm lettin it spin so it doesn't much affect me, this +/- nonsense gets confusing sometimes

I'm no expert.

But I think if you backed the Stellers at -4.5 then unless you can find a match at +4.5 for the Dolphins then your best off sat at home with a beer shouting 'Go Steelers!'

The odds you will get on Miami at +4.5 will be poor, limiting your profit.

Just put my bet on, but odds were -107, not -110.  Hopefully that won't affect the refund if it loses!

Gl all.

odds still seem to be -110 just now, or 1.91 decimal.

no the odds dont affect the refund.

I'm up for this, just waiting for my rakeback account to be created with manion poker. Note that you need ti sign up through a poker rakeback afiliate to use their sportsbook if you plan on playing poker at mansion with rakeback sometime in the future.

$1100 on steelers, no hedge. Kickoff half past midnight thursday.

Seems the "withdrawl conditions" are that you need to give them ID to get any money out, they've honoured this type of promotion before.

So all I have to do is place $1100 on the Steelers to win? :blonde:

Yes, as long it's on the spread/handicap market.

Simply visit the MANSION Sportsbook and place a minimum Point Spread (Handicap) bet of USD 1,100 to win USD 1,000 (or currency equivalent) on the Pittsburgh Steelers for their game on Thursday 7 Sep 2006. (00:30 GMT 8 Sep 2006)

If you took 107 instead of 110 then i think its void......

the point handicap just now is 0 after that bloke got injured.

odds are still -110

odds on the sports EXCHANGE are -107

sports book != sports exchange

You think they are just banking on most of the people messing up the bets?

they just want publicity, they have ad boards in all the football grounds just now, theyre just heavy on promotion right now, throwing money at it trying to get established.

i think a lot of people will make the sports exchange mistake though, yeah.

Oh yeah i know i have been on Mansion since near the start its mad how much they are spending.

They spent £200k just taking a few of us to the world cup, madness.

Arghhhhhhhhh

I was too late by a couple of hours.


But good luck you you guys who were quicket than me.

Guys,

For those who have not Traded these sort of positions before, PLEASE BE CAREFUL. A seemingly small mistake can cost you a fortune.

This thread does worry me guys.

As someone who traded equities, derivatives and dealt with spreads for 15 years and then actually ran hedge fund money, Please take it easy. I fear someone will have taken an unintended position. Hope not.



Miami  will win anyway!

Wow, looks like I just got in under the wire (1am this morning).  At least I hope so, otherwise I made one hell of a bet compared to usual!

No hedge for me though.  Go Steelers!

Sheriff

You must be richer than the Queen.

not quite.

close though

It's ok Tighty i am going to back the Dolphins heavily on Betfair :D

well done to those who won their free $1000 last night. good victory for the steelers.

gutted that I just missed the promo  :(

VN of Mansion that ;)

What a fast cash out process!!

2 hours after cashing out, the money was in my Neteller account.

Why cant all cash outs be this quick?

Aayyyyaaaaarrrrrr.

Poker bankroll +$1000

Can I claim to be a winning player now?    ;goodvevil;

If you are into these offers you may be interested to know that their casino has a very very lucrative offer also, see http://casinobonuswhores.com/mansion.html on how to play it best

Looks like Mansion have plugged this loophole. They took Keno off line last night and its now back with a max 5x side bet which I believe makes it neg EV for the 100% bonus now :(

Luckily I was up $20 before it was removed. Only cleared $500 of the bonus requrement of $20000.

Christ yeah they didn't spend much time catching onto this one... Oh well escaped with a nice £380 profit :D