blonde poker forum

Live tourney and we are 3rd chip leader in the tourney with 27K in chips with blinds at 75 / 150 and a 30 min clock.

we have  Aspades Js in the big blind, all fold to the cut off who raises to 800.  Feeler bet is the re raise to 2K.

Now our opponent  is a tight player most of the time but has shown a few junk wins, His game is solod most of the time but we have a few physical tells on him.

opponent flat calls and we think we catch a tell which indicates a "move" is gonna be made.

Flop comes  9c  3h   6d

We check and the opponent bets out 4.2K we raise to 10K and he instantly moves all in, he has us covered by 5k but we just caught a second and important tell.

Now we are 90% sure we are ahead here.


who's calling?

billy stop trying to justify that terrible call  :D

Well, tell or no tell. I reckon he`s in front, QQ, KK or trip 9`s and the doubt of 10% is probably far greater than your ace high.

billy sorry mate but to call off ur whole stack with ace high when u think (hope) he at it is just not the done thing imo

In most circumstances yes mate you are right, like i said i was 90% sure i knew where i was, The tells I had played a major factor in this.

i take it you called. he turned over  10c 5d and hit a 5 on the river? if you're so sure you're ahead you call everytime.

no bad beats here.

Well I chucked these chips in and i was right as the oppoonent showed  Jc Td so he was drawing dead to a ten or runner runner.  The trouble i had was I git berrated for calling, told it was a terrible play.

 Now how bad is the play if you are ahead? Thats the question thats burning me up.

I dunno what your tells are Billy but knowing Stevies game I'm folding all the time.  I put him on a big hand and its not often he tries playing with muck.

I think you where more desperate to get into that cash game and tahts why you managed to blow all your chips you had accumualted you mug  8)

Like I said mate I had a couple of tells, as for losing my chips the hand played itself,  Qd Qs vs  Ac Kd preflop, I was in no hurry to get to the cash game, to be honest I was pretty gutted about busting out of the tourney, but alas i will eventually learn my lesson.

If you think you are 90% ahead here then it's s trivially easy call. Not sure how you calculate that from a tell though!

Also how do you distinguish between when he has nothing and when he is giving off this tell from semi-bluffing with bottom pair/ a mid pair something which still makes toast out of your AJ.

Well the player in question has one particular tell which gives away he has nothing, not a semi bluff just a stone cold please dont call as i am trying to outplay you, Its vert subtle and i'm pretty sure there are only a hand full of people know what it is.

Thats what made me 90% sure. I did announce before the call i was positive my ace high was in good shape.

So is making this marginal but lucrative call such a bad play when you are 90% sure?

I don't get how you can be 90% sure......


Getting 180 BB's in with AJ hi is usually a long term losing play.

like I said it was all in the physical tells, one is highlighted by Caro and the other was just through time at the table with Steven.

I know long terms its a losing play and i would have folded most of the time, Surely you have to trust your reads in the live game?

50k in the middle with blinds at 75/150, A hi v J hi

Nice hand boys!

To a degree, i don't know how you are 90% sure? Why are you not 100% sure?

Well it had been 3 weeks since i played against him and he may have plugged this hole in his game, if he has and gave me a reverse tell I am pretty much "Butt F*cked without the KY", hence the 10%.

Another factor was that Steven was involved and took down 3 or 4 pots from that orbit alone which seemed a little loose for him.

(1) 1 tell preflop
(2) in too many pots recently
(3) A further tell after i checkraised him
(4) he had shown a few junk hands where he intention of a move but hit the flop hard.

These 4 factors alone told me to call.

I think that you make far too much of these tells that you always seem to talk about. 

The only problem i have with this is that you have 148*BB at the beginning of the hand.

180!

Did that one in my head, can you tell.

well i guessed one of the cards right anyway. you made a great call mate and no-one should be able to tell you any different. you have to ask yourself had you considered everything possible before making the call? was this player smart enough to give off reverse-tells or double bluffs? don't get overconfident next time and make a call based around tells without thinking about this..

as for the 180 x the BB thing. thats irrelevant in my opinion if you're so sure your opponent is on a move. i've called for over 200 x BB with Ace high on the turn before on the very first hand of a tournament and caught one of London's best cash game players making a move with King high. all based on physical tells i'd picked up whilst playing him the night before. if people at the table told you that you made a stupid call so what? you know what reason you called for and thats all that matters.

Cheers for the opinions guys, I was well chuffed with my call to be honest, But i was also thinking during the hand " how the F*ck did i get so deep in this hand with ace high?"

A few people did wonder how I could call with ace high and the comments were wide and varied.  I appreciate thats its a huge risk on a very marginal hand but I find it difficult to fold when I am sure i am ahead.

Thanks again


Billy

Surely there are a number of holdings he could have where he would be giving off the same tell but actually be ahead of Ace high?

That's the thing. If he does this exact same thing with bottom pair, he is making a move and he is bluffing, but yet he has AJ beat up.

If you are 90% sure you are ahead then of course you call. But I have my doubts about whether you can ever be 90% sure A high is good based on a single physical tell. Even telepaths have a 12% margin of error.

there were 2 physical tells, and other factors which i have explained above which brought me to the conclusion i was ahead.

gutsy,commendaable and quite mental


all 3


lol

Where there 2 Steven's at the table because the only 2 hands that where played and shown down where trip 2'd and 2 pair. Blinds where 150/300 and it was raised 900 (total standard raise), re raised 2400 more called in position and raised to 4400 on the flop when checked too, then re raised to 10k and a move all-in after 5 seconds exactly the same as 3 hands previous when holding 2 pr against opponent aces.

As for the junk hands, 46 suited in position when calling 200 into a 1350 pot, doesn't really show an intention of making a move, hit 2 pr, open ended Star draw and possibly a flush draw are the requirements to continue in the pot not to make a move.

Wonder what the physical tells where, sounds like a cover phrase not an explanation for the call.  Remember you turned round and said "Is that cash game up? ah well i call..." doesn't sound like a man calling when hes 90% sure hes ahead  :D Little more like a desperation call. Correct call at the end. What hand did you have me on.  Also you never stopped to study me, you leaned back on your chair on its back 2 lets and made the comment to the cash game plus you did'nt say anything about A high being good till I let out a sigh and said "you made that call because of the cash game?".

1 - 3x BB raise pre flop as always in an unopened pot
2 - Only played 3 hands the whole time at the table, 1st 2 pr 2nd folded to a bet on the flop in a multi limped pot and 3rd trips.
3 - Any further explanation
4 - Only played 3 hands

Lotta holes..  ;)

righty The set of 2's were against me whenI turned the flush, and I would not call that one of the junk hands, My point was you were overinvolved that round, you were taking blinds without the show down.

As for the cash game comment I did say that as I have been known to be wrong you know, I was not 100% sure  but there was so much in the pot and I was so sure I had you I made the call knowing the cash game was in the early stages I could get in there and make some money if I was wrong.

(1) it was nothing to do with the raise in to the pot that suggested the move, it was a Physical thing.

(2) I recall you playing more than 3 hands at the table mate, the  2h 4c V's the  Ac Ahrt was the orbit before as was the set of Ducks V's the Flush. i recall you taking a few blinds uncontested, then came a situation in my BB i think from the orbit before where I checked to the river and a few comments were made from others at the table.

(3) My flop checkraise when you moved in you gave off another tell, At this point my mind was made up pretty much, I only ponder as its a a horrible call but I am pretty sure I am ahead.

(4) My memory serves me differently as to the hands, and I aint filling no holes for ya  :D

I am itching to tell you what  the tells are mate it would put everything in to perspective for ya and you would see the justification in my call but if I tell you its a crime against the poker gods. :D