good call or bad call?

[Newmanseye]

Live tourney and we are 3rd chip leader in the tourney with 27K in chips with blinds at 75 / 150 and a 30 min clock.

we have  in the big blind, all fold to the cut off who raises to 800.  Feeler bet is the re raise to 2K.

Now our opponent  is a tight player most of the time but has shown a few junk wins, His game is solod most of the time but we have a few physical tells on him.

opponent flat calls and we think we catch a tell which indicates a "move" is gonna be made.

Flop comes       

We check and the opponent bets out 4.2K we raise to 10K and he instantly moves all in, he has us covered by 5k but we just caught a second and important tell.

Now we are 90% sure we are ahead here.


who's calling?

[cambo]

billy stop trying to justify that terrible call 

[JoeStrummer]

Well, tell or no tell. I reckon he`s in front, QQ, KK or trip 9`s and the doubt of 10% is probably far greater than your ace high.

[cambo]

billy sorry mate but to call off ur whole stack with ace high when u think (hope) he at it is just not the done thing imo

[Newmanseye]

billy sorry mate but to call off ur whole stack with ace high when u think (hope) he at it is just not the done thing imo

In most circumstances yes mate you are right, like i said i was 90% sure i knew where i was, The tells I had played a major factor in this.

[temp0r]

i take it you called. he turned over  10c and hit a 5 on the river? if you're so sure you're ahead you call everytime.

[Newmanseye]

no bad beats here.

[Newmanseye]

Well I chucked these chips in and i was right as the oppoonent showed  so he was drawing dead to a ten or runner runner.  The trouble i had was I git berrated for calling, told it was a terrible play.

 Now how bad is the play if you are ahead? Thats the question thats burning me up.

[GlasgowBandit]

I dunno what your tells are Billy but knowing Stevies game I'm folding all the time.  I put him on a big hand and its not often he tries playing with muck.

I think you where more desperate to get into that cash game and tahts why you managed to blow all your chips you had accumualted you mug 

[Newmanseye]

Like I said mate I had a couple of tells, as for losing my chips the hand played itself,  vs  preflop, I was in no hurry to get to the cash game, to be honest I was pretty gutted about busting out of the tourney, but alas i will eventually learn my lesson.

[JungleCat03]

If you think you are 90% ahead here then it's s trivially easy call. Not sure how you calculate that from a tell though!

Also how do you distinguish between when he has nothing and when he is giving off this tell from semi-bluffing with bottom pair/ a mid pair something which still makes toast out of your AJ.

[Newmanseye]

If you think you are 90% ahead here then it's s trivially easy call. Not sure how you calculate that from a tell though!

Also how do you distinguish between when he has nothing and when he is giving off this tell from semi-bluffing with bottom pair/ a mid pair something which still makes toast out of your AJ.

Well the player in question has one particular tell which gives away he has nothing, not a semi bluff just a stone cold please dont call as i am trying to outplay you, Its vert subtle and i'm pretty sure there are only a hand full of people know what it is.

Thats what made me 90% sure. I did announce before the call i was positive my ace high was in good shape.

So is making this marginal but lucrative call such a bad play when you are 90% sure?

[Royal Flush]

I don't get how you can be 90% sure......


Getting 180 BB's in with AJ hi is usually a long term losing play.

[Newmanseye]

I don't get how you can be 90% sure......


Getting 180 BB's in with AJ hi is usually a long term losing play.

like I said it was all in the physical tells, one is highlighted by Caro and the other was just through time at the table with Steven.

I know long terms its a losing play and i would have folded most of the time, Surely you have to trust your reads in the live game?

[Teacake]

50k in the middle with blinds at 75/150, A hi v J hi

Nice hand boys!