Title: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 03, 2006, 12:46:29 PM Let's assume a Grosvenor GP seat is worth £1500
Let us also assume that the cost of playing a qualifier is £300 Argument 1 says that once you have spent £1500 trying to qualify, there is no value in subsequent attempts. Argument 2 says that no mater how much you have spent in previous attempts, the value of subsequent attempts remains the same. Which argument is right, and why? Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: AndyG on October 03, 2006, 12:53:25 PM Always a tough one to fathom Tom but I think the money you have already spent in trying is now dead so forget it. I also think the value of the seat depends on what you think your chances are of winning the event or atleast placing high is. If someone is running good and feels like they have a very good chance then the price of a seat runs far greater than $1500 if not then the seat isnt worth anything like that amount. I wonder how many players if allowed would gladly buy someones seat for far more that the face value ?
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Mbuna on October 03, 2006, 12:55:32 PM Argument 2 is correct
You are risking 300 to win 1500 each time you attempt it. So each time you attempt it you get the same value. Argument 1 should say that once you've spent 1500 you might as well have bought in in the first place....BUT you still need to get the seat Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: SupaMonkey on October 03, 2006, 12:59:52 PM Argument 2, you have donated 1500 to the main event prize pool so everytime you lose a satelite the main prize pool gets bigger.
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Claw75 on October 03, 2006, 01:14:04 PM with something like this, I would set myself a budget on how much I could afford to spend trying to qualify. If that budget was over £1500, I'd buy straight in.
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: happybhoy on October 03, 2006, 01:14:36 PM I'd say there is value in continuing but that it will steadily diminish (that doesnt look right) with each attempt cos your not playing with the end point being winning a seat but the money you can make once the seat is won. If you reckon that your average gain out of playing the event is £3000 (admittedly i'm pulling figures out my ass here) then i'd say you could justify 10 attempts before it was pointless.
I could be wrong though and going on previous form I probably am. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 03, 2006, 01:34:51 PM OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes.
Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week. If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value? Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: AndrewT on October 03, 2006, 02:03:25 PM OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes. Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week. If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value? Precisely. Think of it as any other tournament with a cash prize of £1500 (which is all a satellite qualifier is, essentially). All Argument 1 type thinking immediately disintegrates. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: thetank on October 03, 2006, 02:25:07 PM Although losing five in a row may be a sign that you are playing bad, and if that's true every £300 you spend is poor value.
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: AndrewT on October 03, 2006, 02:46:56 PM Although losing five in a row may be a sign that you are playing bad, and if that's true every £300 you spend is poor value. Good point - for most people losing 5 in a row would be normal, but for Red-Dog it's a cataclysmic collapse of form which is obviously a sign of a deeper flaw with his form. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 03, 2006, 03:06:47 PM For your information, this is a hypothetical question (I have only lost 3 in a row)
Last night I played 3 hands only. JJ v AK, A flops Raise with 10 10, called by 8 5, flop 5 5 2 Raise with AK, called by 7 2, flop 7 A 7. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Graham C on October 03, 2006, 03:08:48 PM I'd probably not try more than 3 times as it's not value for me anymore. Obviously overall it's value, but for me personally, there's no value in it.
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Royal Flush on October 03, 2006, 03:12:03 PM I'd probably not try more than 3 times as it's not value for me anymore. Obviously overall it's value, but for me personally, there's no value in it. Grrrr, that to me means you just dont know what value means!!! Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: tikay on October 03, 2006, 03:14:55 PM ;hide;
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: AndrewT on October 03, 2006, 03:26:36 PM ;hide; And, as if by magic, Tikay comes along to show us what value is... Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Graham C on October 03, 2006, 03:26:53 PM I'd probably not try more than 3 times as it's not value for me anymore. Obviously overall it's value, but for me personally, there's no value in it. Grrrr, that to me means you just dont know what value means!!! lol Well, it's still £300 for a £1500 ticket, I do appreciate that, but after losing 3, then it's £1200 for a £1500 which is still a nice saving of £300 if you can qualify on this attempt. My personal view of value for things like this is generally having 1 or 2 goes at it and if I don't qualify, then so be it, any more and I'd may as well just bought in to start with. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Graham C on October 03, 2006, 03:27:46 PM Oh and remember, I only play low value touneys anyway, £300 is way way way out of my price range at the moment.
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Royal Flush on October 03, 2006, 03:31:24 PM ;hide; And, as if by magic, Tikay comes along to show us what value is... PMSL! Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: AlrightJack on October 03, 2006, 03:33:45 PM I'd probably not try more than 3 times as it's not value for me anymore. Obviously overall it's value, but for me personally, there's no value in it. Grrrr, that to me means you just dont know what value means!!! lol Well, it's still £300 for a £1500 ticket, I do appreciate that, but after losing 3, then it's £1200 for a £1500 which is still a nice saving of £300 if you can qualify on this attempt. My personal view of value for things like this is generally having 1 or 2 goes at it and if I don't qualify, then so be it, any more and I'd may as well just bought in to start with. It is not possible to buy-in directly to the Grosvenor Grand Prix. Even poker superstars like Tikay have to qualify if they want to play it. :D Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: M3boy on October 03, 2006, 03:41:49 PM The point is that the seat is priceless!!
As you can ONLY qualify for the event, NOT buy in. I have tried (and failed) twice, last one last night at Luton, down to 12 (they actually had 30 runners so 5 tickets). I have average stack and a guy is raising with rag aces AND showing, so when he raises my BB and I have AK, thats enough to re raise all in with (well apart from 200) he calls with A 10. First card 10. So in answer to the value question,,,,,, I think that the qualifier ALWAYS has value no matter how any times you try. Just my 2p's worth. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Graham C on October 03, 2006, 03:42:41 PM Ah didn't realise that you couldn't buy in, that does make a difference.
4th time lucky Red ;goodluck; Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: ifm on October 03, 2006, 03:54:21 PM So far i reckon £2 is owed in BB stories :D
I tried to qualify last year a number of times and decided to give up when it had cost me £1000. This year i thought sod it, i'm not risking the £1000. So basically i go by the risk v reward thingy, even if i had qualified at the last attempt last year i still need a good run in the comp. Though i have a bit of a block when it comes to sats these days, i think the last one i got thru was about 2 years ago live!!!!!!! Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: bobby1 on October 03, 2006, 04:11:17 PM OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes. Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week. If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value? Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: bobby1 on October 03, 2006, 04:11:43 PM OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes. Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week. If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value? I agree. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 03, 2006, 04:14:17 PM OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes. Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week. If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value? I agree. It looks like you and me against the world bobby. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Royal Flush on October 03, 2006, 04:19:02 PM OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes. Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week. If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value? I agree. It looks like you and me against the world bobby. Eh? Nearly everyone in the thread agreed with you! Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: SupaMonkey on October 03, 2006, 04:20:51 PM OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes. Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week. If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value? I agree. It looks like you and me against the world bobby. It is an odd problem and i think we must define the coin toss analogy more carefully. If someone offers 2-1 on the toss of a coin but tells you that you can only play until you win, what is the maximum number of losses you should accept? Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 03, 2006, 04:24:12 PM OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes. Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week. If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value? I agree. It looks like you and me against the world bobby. Eh? Nearly everyone in the thread agreed with you! Yes, but I wanted someone to point that out for the benefit of someone who shall remain nameless (tikay) Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Royal Flush on October 03, 2006, 05:17:31 PM OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes. Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week. If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value? I agree. It looks like you and me against the world bobby. Eh? Nearly everyone in the thread agreed with you! Yes, but I wanted someone to point that out for the benefit of someone who shall remain nameless (tikay) ah ok. He is a bit slow on the uptake, i understand. Although he did take me in a cash game last night, the mug! Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: ariston on October 03, 2006, 07:04:24 PM If you have decided on playing the event tom you have to keep trying to qualify until you do. You cannot put a price on the seat as you cannot buyin direct.
You know you will win a seat in the end as the numpties can't keep hitting (I assume it was a Tikay type player who called your raise with 72?). Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 03, 2006, 07:13:01 PM Sigh....
Whether you can buy in or not is irrelevant. Whether I get a seat or not is irrelevant The question was....... Oh, never mind. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: ariston on October 03, 2006, 07:21:01 PM Ok in answer to your question yes it is still value to qualify and your argument on the coin toss sums it up. To bring up the old argument (not sure if its been done on this forum) if someone did offer you 2-1 on the next flip of a coin how much of your bankroll would you risk Tom?
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: thetank on October 03, 2006, 07:32:08 PM I'd risk all of it. Might win £30 8)
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 03, 2006, 07:34:16 PM All of it, but in 5% portions.
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: ariston on October 03, 2006, 07:36:43 PM Thats not the offer Tom and you know it. You are allowed one go only and lets say you have a bankroll of 100k and I will give you 2-1 on the one spin of the coin- how much of your 100k would you risk?
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 03, 2006, 07:40:16 PM Thats not the offer Tom and you know it. You are allowed one go only and lets say you have a bankroll of 100k and I will give you 2-1 on the one spin of the coin- how much of your 100k would you risk? 80% Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: 12barblues on October 03, 2006, 07:57:41 PM To go back to the original question, the value in entering for the 'n'th time is exactly the same as the value the first time (ceterus paribollockus.....that means 'all other things being equal' for those who didn't study classical Greek :D)
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 03, 2006, 08:05:32 PM I think tikay did, he talks a lot of paribollockus
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: NoflopsHomer on October 03, 2006, 08:07:08 PM I think tikay did, he talks a lot of paribollockus Wasn't he a Roman centurion in the Asterix books? Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: ifm on October 04, 2006, 12:17:41 AM I think this thread needs to change direction...............
12barblues, WTF have you been??????????????????????????????????? Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Karabiner on October 04, 2006, 01:10:53 AM Well it's really like any rebuy tourney, the last rebuy actually gets the most value because there is more in the pot.
That is one perspective anyhow. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: tikay on October 04, 2006, 01:25:53 AM To go back to the original question, the value in entering for the 'n'th time is exactly the same as the value the first time (ceterus paribollockus.....that means 'all other things being equal' for those who didn't study classical Greek :D) Yes, where HAVE you been? No sweat - welcome back. You've been much missed. Go take a look at Hand Analysis - my, it's grown up now! Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: tikay on October 04, 2006, 01:26:39 AM OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes. Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week. If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value? I agree. Keep out of this - what would YOU know about odds & stuff? Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 04, 2006, 01:30:32 AM Well it's really like any rebuy tourney, the last rebuy actually gets the most value because there is more in the pot. That is one perspective anyhow. No its NOT like any re-buy tourney. In this case you are starting anew from a level playing field. Not re-buying less big blinds than you did at the start, with a lot of big stacks to compete against, as would be the case with the last re-buy in a re-buy tourney Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: tikay on October 04, 2006, 01:45:49 AM OK, the truth of this thread. I manage to get my seat Online, after 1 live B & M failure. Tom went for his 2nd or 3rd attempt last night, no luck. I said "well, I guess that's it Tom, it makes no sense to try again, you've done best part of £900 (or whatever) already, so you are getting close to the point where there is no value". He replied - sort of, I think - "that's nonsense. If I had 20 attemots, at, say, £400 each, it would still be the same value if I tried a 21st time. Then he told me a story about a ship in dry dock. (He DID, I tell ya). I struggled tgo get my head round this. Why risk, theoretically, let us say £8,000 to get in a Tourney with a theoretical seat value of, say, £1,500? And if you DID drop £8,000, is there any pouint in dropping another £400, then another, then another. At some point, surely, you have to say, "well, thats it, the value has gone". And we argued to & fro all night. Eventually, we reached a compromise. I agreed he was wrong. He agreed I was wrong. He's a bit stubborn. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Wardonkey on October 04, 2006, 01:56:16 AM There's no mathematical point at which 'there's no value'.
The laws of probabiliity have no memory. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: tikay on October 04, 2006, 02:05:19 AM There's no mathematical point at which 'there's no value'. The laws of probabiliity have no memory. So you agree with me? Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 04, 2006, 02:06:44 AM There's no mathematical point at which 'there's no value'. The laws of probabiliity have no memory. Give that man a see-gar!!!!!! Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: totalise on October 04, 2006, 02:21:12 AM Quote I struggled tgo get my head round this. Why risk, theoretically, let us say £8,000 to get in a Tourney with a theoretical seat value of, say, £1,500? he isn't, he is risking £300. Naturally if Red knows he is going to lose £8,000 to try and win £1,500 then it isn't worth entering. Think of it another way: On the 4th of October there is a £1500 buyin 100 person MTT. On the 11th October there is a £1500 buyin 100 person MTT. The players are the same Red spends £3k to try and enter the one on the 4th. He fails . You are saying that its not worth trying to spend anotner £300 to satellite into the one on the 4th, and instead wait for a different tourney. The one on the 11th. They are exactly the same, the £300 (or whatever figure it is) is the same. Why is one "value" and the other isn't?? Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: tikay on October 04, 2006, 02:24:30 AM Quote I struggled tgo get my head round this. Why risk, theoretically, let us say £8,000 to get in a Tourney with a theoretical seat value of, say, £1,500? he isn't, he is risking £300. Naturally if Red knows he is going to lose £8,000 to try and win £1,500 then it isn't worth entering. Think of it another way: On the 4th of October there is a £1500 buyin 100 person MTT. On the 11th October there is a £1500 buyin 100 person MTT. The players are the same Red spends £3k to try and enter the one on the 4th. He fails . You are saying that its not worth trying to spend anotner £300 to satellite into the one on the 4th, and instead wait for a different tourney. The one on the 11th. They are exactly the same, the £300 (or whatever figure it is) is the same. Why is one "value" and the other isn't?? Steady on - you'll have Red thinking he's right. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 04, 2006, 02:30:19 AM Quote I struggled tgo get my head round this. Why risk, theoretically, let us say £8,000 to get in a Tourney with a theoretical seat value of, say, £1,500? he isn't, he is risking £300. Naturally if Red knows he is going to lose £8,000 to try and win £1,500 then it isn't worth entering. Think of it another way: On the 4th of October there is a £1500 buyin 100 person MTT. On the 11th October there is a £1500 buyin 100 person MTT. The players are the same Red spends £3k to try and enter the one on the 4th. He fails . You are saying that its not worth trying to spend anotner £300 to satellite into the one on the 4th, and instead wait for a different tourney. The one on the 11th. They are exactly the same, the £300 (or whatever figure it is) is the same. Why is one "value" and the other isn't?? Steady on - you'll have Red thinking he's right. I have already tried this argument ;izimbra; Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: totalise on October 04, 2006, 02:31:35 AM I dont know how you can try and make it clearer if thats the case!
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: The Baron on October 04, 2006, 03:02:16 AM Just to throw a spanner in the works, what about the player's utility (happiness)?
It wont decrease the value of each £300 satellite directly, but a decreasing or negative utility (say after spending over £1500) could bring about bad play thereby indirectly decreasing the value of the satellite as the player has less of a chance to win. As someone said earlier, some value is in how far the player is capable of going in the event. Also from a social standpoint... money spent on poker without enjoyment isn't necessarily good value to everyone. A point Flushy made a while back on another thread. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: RED-DOG on October 04, 2006, 03:06:57 AM Sigh....... ;izimbra; :pop: ;grr;
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: The Baron on October 04, 2006, 03:16:22 AM I accept your point is mathmatically correct RED. No dispute here... I'm just saying some people want more from there £300 than a seat. If they're not enjoying it anymore and they're playing badly what is the point?
However you are correct, the £300 still has the same value. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: thetank on October 04, 2006, 03:32:47 AM Why don't you just win one and save all the hassle. Get the RED head on. ;slavedriver;
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Newmanseye on October 04, 2006, 03:35:52 AM RED did you ever win a seat?
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: thetank on October 04, 2006, 03:37:53 AM Like ever ever, or since yesterday ever?
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Newmanseye on October 04, 2006, 03:38:53 AM Like ever ever, or since yesterday ever? I'll leave that for Red to decide Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Wardonkey on October 04, 2006, 03:43:52 AM Win a seat.
Knock Tikay out on the bubble. Take down the comp. Ask Tikay to define the moment at which you lost the value. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: thetank on October 04, 2006, 03:50:23 AM He'll be able to tell you at which point you lost your magnanaminity
Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: thetank on October 04, 2006, 04:00:45 AM Ahem, meant to say magnanimosity.
Neither of them are likely to be real words, but the latter looks more +EV. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: Royal Flush on October 04, 2006, 05:30:28 AM Win a seat. Knock Tikay out on the bubble. Take down the comp. Ask Tikay to define the moment at which you lost the value. PMSL!! Also from a social standpoint... money spent on poker without enjoyment isn't necessarily good value to everyone. A point Flushy made a while back on another thread. Someone listend to what i said!!! Oh and finally is this the time to brag about being in for £100? Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: tikay on October 04, 2006, 07:50:52 AM Win a seat. Knock Tikay out on the bubble. Take down the comp. Ask Tikay to define the moment at which you lost the value. For a moment, I thought - "that makes sense". But of course ALL qualifiers get £100. I can't Bubble! There's a novelty. Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: M3boy on October 04, 2006, 04:15:33 PM OK, the truth of this thread. I manage to get my seat Online, after 1 live B & M failure. Tom went for his 2nd or 3rd attempt last night, no luck. I said "well, I guess that's it Tom, it makes no sense to try again, you've done best part of £900 (or whatever) already, so you are getting close to the point where there is no value". He replied - sort of, I think - "that's nonsense. If I had 20 attemots, at, say, £400 each, it would still be the same value if I tried a 21st time. Then he told me a story about a ship in dry dock. (He DID, I tell ya). I struggled tgo get my head round this. Why risk, theoretically, let us say £8,000 to get in a Tourney with a theoretical seat value of, say, £1,500? And if you DID drop £8,000, is there any pouint in dropping another £400, then another, then another. At some point, surely, you have to say, "well, thats it, the value has gone". And we argued to & fro all night. Eventually, we reached a compromise. I agreed he was wrong. He agreed I was wrong. He's a bit stubborn. If anyone looses £8k trying to win anything (playing £100 comps) - be it a seat or cash then THEY are the value ;goodvevil; Title: Re: Opinions please Post by: thetank on October 04, 2006, 05:06:13 PM Especially if they spend £8k on Kinder eggs trying to win an orange rocket.
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