Opinions please

[RED-DOG]

Let's assume a Grosvenor GP seat is worth £1500

Let us also assume that the cost of playing a qualifier is £300

Argument 1 says that once you have spent £1500 trying to qualify, there is no value in subsequent attempts.

Argument 2 says that no mater how much you have spent in previous attempts, the value of subsequent attempts remains the same.


Which argument is right, and why?

[AndyG]

Always a tough one to fathom Tom but I think the money you have already spent in trying is now dead so forget it. I also think the value of the seat depends on what you think your chances are of winning the event or atleast placing high is. If someone is running good and feels like they have a very good chance then the price of a seat runs far greater than $1500 if not then the seat isnt worth anything like that amount. I wonder how many players if allowed would gladly buy someones seat for far more that the face value ?

[Mbuna]

Argument 2 is correct

You are risking 300 to win 1500 each time you attempt it. So each time you attempt it you get the same value.

Argument 1  should say that once you've spent 1500 you might as well have bought in in the first place....BUT you still need to get the seat

[SupaMonkey]

Argument 2, you have donated 1500 to the main event prize pool so everytime you lose a satelite the main prize pool gets bigger.

[Claw75]

with something like this, I would set myself a budget on how much I could afford to spend trying to qualify.  If that budget was over £1500, I'd buy straight in.

[happybhoy]

I'd say there is value in continuing but that it will steadily diminish (that doesnt look right) with each attempt cos your not playing with the end point being winning a seat but the money you can make once the seat is won. If you reckon that your average gain out of playing the event is £3000 (admittedly i'm pulling figures out my ass here) then i'd say you could justify 10 attempts before it was pointless.
I could be wrong though and going on previous form I probably am.

[RED-DOG]

OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes.

Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week.

If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value?

[AndrewT]

OK. My argument is, each time you try, you are risking £300 to gain 1500. The value never changes.

Otherwise, It would mean that there would be no value in trying to qualify for the same event next year, Or for an identical event run by a different casino chain the following week.

If someone gave you 2/1 on the toss of a coin, and you lost the first three, would that mean the forth spin was poor value?

Precisely. Think of it as any other tournament with a cash prize of £1500 (which is all a satellite qualifier is, essentially). All Argument 1 type thinking immediately disintegrates.

[thetank]

Although losing five in a row may be a sign that you are playing bad, and if that's true every £300 you spend is poor value.

[AndrewT]

Although losing five in a row may be a sign that you are playing bad, and if that's true every £300 you spend is poor value.

Good point - for most people losing 5 in a row would be normal, but for Red-Dog it's a cataclysmic collapse of form which is obviously a sign of a deeper flaw with his form.

[RED-DOG]

For your information, this is a hypothetical question (I have only lost 3 in a row)


Last night I played 3 hands only.

JJ v AK, A flops

Raise with 10 10, called by 8 5, flop 5 5 2

Raise with AK, called by 7 2, flop 7 A 7.

[Graham C]

I'd probably not try more than 3 times as it's not value for me anymore. Obviously overall it's value, but for me personally, there's no value in it.

[Royal Flush]

I'd probably not try more than 3 times as it's not value for me anymore. Obviously overall it's value, but for me personally, there's no value in it.

Grrrr, that to me means you just dont know what value means!!!

[tikay]

 

[AndrewT]

And, as if by magic, Tikay comes along to show us what value is...