blonde poker forum

Not sure if this has been discussed before (search function appears to be playing up) but the WSOP ME coverage concluded on Sunday and there was a fascinating hand with three players remaining.

Jamie Gold is the massive chip leader and has been playing LAG throughout, both Paul Wasicka and Michael Binger have around 11 million in chips (according to Wasicka's blog - I can't find a conclusive count) but from the TV coverage it looked as if Wasicka was 2nd in chips at the time (which perhaps affected my interpretation of the hand).  There's around 90m chips in play, so Gold must be on around 68m if the other counts are correct.

Blinds are 200k/400k with a 50k ante.  Jamie Gold limps from the button (not unusual for him, he liked to see flops) with 4s 3c, Wasicka completes from the small blind with 8s 7s and Binger then makes it 1.5m with  Ahrt Th.  Both Gold and Wasicka call the raise.

Flop comes Tc 6s 5s, giving Binger top pair, Gold a straight draw and Wasicka an open-ended straight flush draw.

Binger bets 3.5m, Gold then pushes, leaving Wasicka with a decision to make.  After several announcements of 'sick' he folds, Binger calls.  Turn brings the 7c, completing Gold's straight but the river brings the Qs which meant that Wasicka would have won the hand.  In interviews he stated that he felt confident of beating Gold in heads up play (he actually said if he had a 9:1 chip deficit he still thought he would beat him) but I'm intrigued as to whether he should have taken the shot of eating away at Gold's stack with such a massive draw.

My thinking on immediately seeing the hand was that he should've pushed, as he would've been guaranteed 2nd place if Gold won the hand.  Reading the accounts of the hand as above show Binger and Wasicka's chip-stacks to be similar, although on TV it looks as if Wasicka is comfortably second.  I'd assumed from the coverage that Binger is pot-committed from his bet but I guess he has enough to fold if Wasicka calls the all-in, so the interpretation is slightly different.

Its about as fascinating a hand as you're ever likely to see for such huge stakes.  Winner gets $12m, 2nd gets $6.1m and 3rd 'only' gets $4.1m.  This is part of the reason why I'm tempted to gamble in Wasicka's shoes, its not as if I'm on the poverty line if I don't take the shot.

Just intrigued as to other's thoughts on this.  I found a YouTube link to the hand in question if you want to see it as it plays out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAYxRca8Gkk

Sheriff

I remember watching this live at the time and when Wasicka said he folded 87 spades I thought it was an atrocious fold. Not even Phil Ivey would have considered himself to have a big enough edge over Gold to pass up this opportunity to triple up.

HOW CAN HE FOLD????? WHY DOES HE MAKE THE PREFLOP CALL IF HE AINT GONNA PUT HIS CHIPS IN ON THAT DRAW FFS!!! LOL

Awful pass, why call a raise if you're going to fold. If Gold has a bigger f-draw, so be it, I've still got outs and most likely live cards to pair.

I was shouting at the screen when he folded that - even Tighty would have been in there (possibly).  I thought he definitely had the second largest stack before that hand. 

Another hand I thought was strange, was Cunningham's all-in with the TT.  As the 'best' player at the table surely he should be looking to avoid coin-flips that could knock him out, and still wouldn't put him in the driving seat to win?  As it happened, he was actually a big dog when the money went in.  Overall, a poor play I thought.  Or have I got the thinking wrong?

His reasoning on his blog is that he expects Binger to fold if he calls and he fears Gold is on a bigger flush draw, thus reducing his outs.  Like I said the interpretation is different from seeing it on screen only (my initial reaction was similar).

For me though, they've passed the point where the money is an issue in terms of being 'life changing' so its all about the win now.  I'd hope I'd be willing to gamble there in his shoes but how do we know how we'll react in the heat of the moment?

I didn't think this was too bad a play at the time, although I can't remember the full details.  The pot has been raised and called, so its a biggie.  Gold could have anything and might well take a shot with a lesser hand to knock out a 'danger player' (don't forget the call with a flush draw and one card to come earlier in the tournament vs the Swedish guy).

He's effectively making a squeeze play but with a decent hand.  From the coverage it looked as if he's dropped fairly low in chips (but not desperate) but would still need to accumulate enough chips to have a real shot at Gold's stack.

As it turned out Gold made a loose call with KJ (given that there was another player still to act) and won the coin flip.  I don't think it was disastrous play on Cunningham's part.

Its fine everyone coming on here and saying "that was an awful pass" and fair enough in a $50 freezeout on pokerstars i'm calling every day of the week - but when your playing for $23,000,000 between the three of you it probably puts a slightly different tint on things. If he calls and misses he's out and walking away with $4,000,000 - if he passes and Gold knocks Binger out (and considering he'd knocked out 5000 runners during the tourney there was probably a fair chance he'd make it 5001) then he's getting $6,000,000 for nothing.

Chances are if Gold folds then he calls..........

behave,


i'd like to think I'd call, guaranteed $4m if I get knocked out

and a great shot at twelve million if you win!

plus the equity of being the champ, which is at least $10m (from what I heard)

 It took me a nanosecond to get my stack in holding  7h 8h on a flop of  Ac  6h  5h on day 2 of this years main event and do I regret it? Course i do after the  7d  3d turn and river but I'd like to think I'm still enough of a donk to have done the same in Wasickas' position.

Was it not Wasicka first to act in that scenario?

In which case, Wasicka had to check the flop first, then Binger bets, then Gold is all-in.

I thought at the time, watching it, that for sure Wasicka was annoyed that he didn't put the first bet in; if he does that, then Binger raises and perhaps Gold passes... or flat calls, which would give Wasicka the correct sequence of events to get his chips in first against Binger, with a hand that's actually a favourite over the TPTK!

Given he figured he could fold himself up to 2nd place, in the heat of battle, I'd say I understood the decision. It looked like he was trying to check-raise all-in against one opponent, but it backfired because both of them caught a piece!

He was, but Gold's all-in scared him off.  Ironically, he's getting much better value with two players in the hand than one and the value of the hand hasn't diminished from the 3-way pot.

Passing didn't guarantee 2nd place. If Gold had not hit then Wasicka would have been   left with only half the number of chips held by Binger, both still a long way behind Gold.

Sitting in my armchair at home, Id never fold this in a million years... at the table, I dont know if I would have called. Its tempting to fold and hope the other guy gets knocked out. The correct play in terms of EV and anything else is to get the money in, and I dont think its even a close decision, but if I were actually in that spot, I suspect (and I wish it weren't true) that I would fold as well.

Link to Wasicka's blog where he talks about the hand:

http://kwickfish.blogspot.com/2006/11/final-table-10000-main-event.html

I see he doesn't believe in paragraphs...

If he really belives that Gold holds a higher flush draw then there could be some merit for his fold. But i wouldnt fold it.

Possibly, but at this stage of the tournament (with $4m already pocketed) the extra $2m for 2nd place isn't really that big a deal - the value in this hand is it's a great shot at getting close enough to Gold to be able to pressure for the win.

I agree...There is merit to his fold..but maybe I'm just not a good enough player to make it..I dunno. I love to see people move in in a pot where I have that hand. And if I was already guaranteed 4mill my chips would have been flying in to win that puppy.

I can't really agree with that. Even if you're guaranteed $4 MM, surely an extra two million still makes a huge difference. If Wasicka put Gold on a flush draw, which I suppose is quite likely, then his OESFD wouldn't look so cool anymore. So why not sit back, hope for Gold to win that hand (assuming it's a flush draw, he's got about 38%), and then start picking at his stack.

I think I'd much rather be a 10-1 dog heads-up than out in third (even if I gave it a shot at only being a 5-1 dog heads-up) ... he needed to get lucky against Gold a couple of times anyway to get an equal footing in chipsize, so why not wait wth those coinflips until you're guaranteed an extra $2 MM?

Passing does not guarantee anything. He would have been in 3rd position with only half the chips of Binger if Gold had not hit the straight.

Well, yes, but rather safe than sorry, no? I mean he would be committing all his chips, he should expect Binger to pass, on what would come down to be an open-ended straight draw, giving him six outs and Gold a redraw. Yes, if they played with open cards, and had he known that Gold was only on a straight draw rather than the flush draw, it's a totally different story, but I don't see how he can call here, when he has to expect to be behind.

Say he has the OESD and Gold had a Fdraw, then he has something like 35% of winning?
Otherwise, he'll fold, Gold has 40% of busting Binger.

So overall if he calls:
35% - he will have doubled up against Gold, a better stab at first place and a fairly gt'd 2nd place - $6m gt'd, with top place paying $12m + another $8 for being champion ($20m), and say he's on a 50/50 to win from here onwards, that's an overall of $13m
65% - he's gone in 3rd - $4m

On average (0.35*13 + 0.65*4) = $7.15 MM

If he folds:
40% - he is heads-up against Gold. $6m gt'd, say he's got 20% to take the title and spoils:
0.8*6 + 0.2*20 = $8.8 MM
60% - not so cool, he's in third with least chips. $4m gt'd, say a 35% stab at $6m and a 15% stab at the whole package?
4*0.5 + 6*0.35 + 20*0.15 = $7.1 MM

That's a total of
0.4 * 8.8 + 0.6 * 7.1 = $7.78 MM

OK, numbers may be disputable, but I think it's fair to say that it is at least a very, very close decision, and if my numbers are anything close to reasonable, the fold is actually correct. You have to keep in mind that Wasicka thought he had a huge edge over both other players remaining and he put Gold on a flush draw. If those two assumptions are incorrect, then yeah, call.

I mean, I know I would have called because I don't have an edge over either of those two, but if Wasicka thought he did, I can understand that fold.

Moritzey you are forgetting one thing - this is not just a financial decision. If you win the tournament you are World Champion. People know you as World Champion. Your name goes into a select group of great players (and Varkonyi/Moneymaker) for all time.

That pushes it into a certain call for me.

i pass it is only 8 high after all....no matter how big a draw...its still a draw.BTW DRAWS DO MISS. Its not like he knew wot gold had. As painful as it was i think wasicka made the right pass. Gold doesnt move in i call, once Gold moves in...no matter wot hes got he can take him out and the was the over riding factor.

He needs to commit himself to the pot by leading out, once he checks, binger bets and gold moves in, he stops thinking about his actual hand but the potential jump in prize money if binger gets eliminated. After checking Id say its probably the right pass given the action, but since he knows gold is capable of shoving almsot any pair/any draw I think he made a cardinal mistake not betting first with such a strong draw and committing himself to the pot

Paul - interested to hear your thoughts on Cunnigham's play with the TT.  It's easy when you're watching on telly and can see all the cards and what's gone on before. 

But like I said earlier in the thread, I'm surprised he made that play and went for the gamble when he was confident he was the best player at the table.

the TT hand cunningham moved in to pick the chips up in the middle...it went raise...flat call..and cunningham pushed, he knew it was the best hand then and wanted to pick the pot there are then, but Gold decided he fancied a gamble as he felt that was the only way he could beat cunningham. When Gold called, u could hear Cunningham say he felt sick by Golds call! So i dont think Cunningham wanted to gamble, it was more a dodgy call by Gold and he found himself in the best possible spot 50/50! sorry if that didnt make sense.

I don't disagree, but with the size of Cunnigham's chip-stack compared to Gold's, he wasn't going to lay it down (if he had half a hand, and I guess that KJ is pushing the boundaries of 'half a hand').  Gold has to be happier with a 'race' as it negates the skill of Cunningham - who I thought would have wanted to avoid such a situation.  Of course, like I said, it's easy when you can see all the cards, and who am I to question Cunningham?

It's an interesting hand nevertheless, and despite the stick Gold has received from many quarters, and I know he had more than his fair share of luck, he still had the other players rattled.