World Series Main Event - Paul Wasicka decision

[Sheriff Fatman]

Not sure if this has been discussed before (search function appears to be playing up) but the WSOP ME coverage concluded on Sunday and there was a fascinating hand with three players remaining.

Jamie Gold is the massive chip leader and has been playing LAG throughout, both Paul Wasicka and Michael Binger have around 11 million in chips (according to Wasicka's blog - I can't find a conclusive count) but from the TV coverage it looked as if Wasicka was 2nd in chips at the time (which perhaps affected my interpretation of the hand).  There's around 90m chips in play, so Gold must be on around 68m if the other counts are correct.

Blinds are 200k/400k with a 50k ante.  Jamie Gold limps from the button (not unusual for him, he liked to see flops) with , Wasicka completes from the small blind with and Binger then makes it 1.5m with  .  Both Gold and Wasicka call the raise.

Flop comes , giving Binger top pair, Gold a straight draw and Wasicka an open-ended straight flush draw.

Binger bets 3.5m, Gold then pushes, leaving Wasicka with a decision to make.  After several announcements of 'sick' he folds, Binger calls.  Turn brings the , completing Gold's straight but the river brings the which meant that Wasicka would have won the hand.  In interviews he stated that he felt confident of beating Gold in heads up play (he actually said if he had a 9:1 chip deficit he still thought he would beat him) but I'm intrigued as to whether he should have taken the shot of eating away at Gold's stack with such a massive draw.

My thinking on immediately seeing the hand was that he should've pushed, as he would've been guaranteed 2nd place if Gold won the hand.  Reading the accounts of the hand as above show Binger and Wasicka's chip-stacks to be similar, although on TV it looks as if Wasicka is comfortably second.  I'd assumed from the coverage that Binger is pot-committed from his bet but I guess he has enough to fold if Wasicka calls the all-in, so the interpretation is slightly different.

Its about as fascinating a hand as you're ever likely to see for such huge stakes.  Winner gets $12m, 2nd gets $6.1m and 3rd 'only' gets $4.1m.  This is part of the reason why I'm tempted to gamble in Wasicka's shoes, its not as if I'm on the poverty line if I don't take the shot.

Just intrigued as to other's thoughts on this.  I found a YouTube link to the hand in question if you want to see it as it plays out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAYxRca8Gkk

Sheriff

[AndrewT]

I remember watching this live at the time and when Wasicka said he folded 87 spades I thought it was an atrocious fold. Not even Phil Ivey would have considered himself to have a big enough edge over Gold to pass up this opportunity to triple up.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

HOW CAN HE FOLD?? WHY DOES HE MAKE THE PREFLOP CALL IF HE AINT GONNA PUT HIS CHIPS IN ON THAT DRAW FFS!!! LOL

[NoflopsHomer]

Awful pass, why call a raise if you're going to fold. If Gold has a bigger f-draw, so be it, I've still got outs and most likely live cards to pair.

[kinboshi]

I was shouting at the screen when he folded that - even Tighty would have been in there (possibly).  I thought he definitely had the second largest stack before that hand. 

Another hand I thought was strange, was Cunningham's all-in with the TT.  As the 'best' player at the table surely he should be looking to avoid coin-flips that could knock him out, and still wouldn't put him in the driving seat to win?  As it happened, he was actually a big dog when the money went in.  Overall, a poor play I thought.  Or have I got the thinking wrong?

[Sheriff Fatman]

His reasoning on his blog is that he expects Binger to fold if he calls and he fears Gold is on a bigger flush draw, thus reducing his outs.  Like I said the interpretation is different from seeing it on screen only (my initial reaction was similar).

For me though, they've passed the point where the money is an issue in terms of being 'life changing' so its all about the win now.  I'd hope I'd be willing to gamble there in his shoes but how do we know how we'll react in the heat of the moment?

[Sheriff Fatman]

I was shouting at the screen when he folded that - even Tighty would have been in there (possibly).  I thought he definitely had the second largest stack before that hand. 

Another hand I thought was strange, was Cunningham's all-in with the TT.  As the 'best' player at the table surely he should be looking to avoid coin-flips that could knock him out, and still wouldn't put him in the driving seat to win?  As it happened, he was actually a big dog when the money went in.  Overall, a poor play I thought.  Or have I got the thinking wrong?

I didn't think this was too bad a play at the time, although I can't remember the full details.  The pot has been raised and called, so its a biggie.  Gold could have anything and might well take a shot with a lesser hand to knock out a 'danger player' (don't forget the call with a flush draw and one card to come earlier in the tournament vs the Swedish guy).

He's effectively making a squeeze play but with a decent hand.  From the coverage it looked as if he's dropped fairly low in chips (but not desperate) but would still need to accumulate enough chips to have a real shot at Gold's stack.

As it turned out Gold made a loose call with KJ (given that there was another player still to act) and won the coin flip.  I don't think it was disastrous play on Cunningham's part.

[matt674]

Its fine everyone coming on here and saying "that was an awful pass" and fair enough in a $50 freezeout on pokerstars i'm calling every day of the week - but when your playing for $23,000,000 between the three of you it probably puts a slightly different tint on things. If he calls and misses he's out and walking away with $4,000,000 - if he passes and Gold knocks Binger out (and considering he'd knocked out 5000 runners during the tourney there was probably a fair chance he'd make it 5001) then he's getting $6,000,000 for nothing.

Chances are if Gold folds then he calls..........

[TightEnd]

I was shouting at the screen when he folded that - even Tighty would have been in there (possibly). 

behave,


i'd like to think I'd call, guaranteed $4m if I get knocked out

[Div]

i'd like to think I'd call, guaranteed $4m if I get knocked out

and a great shot at twelve million if you win!

[totalise]

i'd like to think I'd call, guaranteed $4m if I get knocked out

and a great shot at twelve million if you win!

plus the equity of being the champ, which is at least $10m (from what I heard)

[divingduck]

 It took me a nanosecond to get my stack in holding  on a flop of      on day 2 of this years main event and do I regret it? Course i do after the    turn and river but I'd like to think I'm still enough of a donk to have done the same in Wasickas' position.

[I, Zimbra]

Was it not Wasicka first to act in that scenario?

In which case, Wasicka had to check the flop first, then Binger bets, then Gold is all-in.

I thought at the time, watching it, that for sure Wasicka was annoyed that he didn't put the first bet in; if he does that, then Binger raises and perhaps Gold passes... or flat calls, which would give Wasicka the correct sequence of events to get his chips in first against Binger, with a hand that's actually a favourite over the TPTK!

Given he figured he could fold himself up to 2nd place, in the heat of battle, I'd say I understood the decision. It looked like he was trying to check-raise all-in against one opponent, but it backfired because both of them caught a piece!

[Sheriff Fatman]

Given he figured he could fold himself up to 2nd place, in the heat of battle, I'd say I understood the decision. It looked like he was trying to check-raise all-in against one opponent, but it backfired because both of them caught a piece!

He was, but Gold's all-in scared him off.  Ironically, he's getting much better value with two players in the hand than one and the value of the hand hasn't diminished from the 3-way pot.

[Wardonkey]

Passing didn't guarantee 2nd place. If Gold had not hit then Wasicka would have been   left with only half the number of chips held by Binger, both still a long way behind Gold.