blonde poker forum

Table 'Helewalda II' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Kanadian ($190.15 in chips)
Seat 2: TheMinion ($200 in chips)
Seat 3: Bert Berns ($245.75 in chips)
Seat 4: happypumpkin ($132.10 in chips)
Seat 5: Santa Fish1 ($158.55 in chips)
Seat 6: dng_ps ($190.80 in chips)
Seat 7: 2PAUL2 ($224 in chips)
Seat 8: big mike 776 ($200 in chips)
Seat 9: davmcg ($197 in chips)
2PAUL2: posts small blind $1
big mike 776: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to davmcg [Kh Ks]
davmcg: raises $8 to $10
Kanadian: folds
TheMinion: folds
Bert Berns: folds
happypumpkin: folds
Santa Fish1: folds
dng_ps: folds
2PAUL2: raises $20 to $30
big mike 776: folds
davmcg: calls $20
*** FLOP *** [Qd 9d Qs]
Bert Berns is disconnected
2PAUL2: bets $40
davmcg: raises $40 to $80
2PAUL2: calls $40


Opponent is not an idiot - he must be holding AA here surely - anyone disagree?

Almost certainly, but you have to check behind him on the river- he won't fold to a bet of $87.

He's not an idiot, and if he thinks the same of you then he should have you on the following hands in this particular order:

1. KK
2. AA
3. QQ

If you check the turn are you are calling his river bet if it comes?

No, and he will most likely bet the river if you check behind him on the turn. (I meant to say "turn" rather than "river" on my first post.)

However, I would have folded on the flop if I didn't hit my set. If you consider him to be a decent player, then you have to assume his re-raise (against an UTG raiser in a full-handed game) is AA.

Well, he's first to act, so what did he do on the Turn?

He checked

I would check it down and call a bet on the River.

I imagine he would check Aces on the River, but bet out A-K.

It is not remotely possible he has AK

In that case, I would check and then fold to a bet on the River as he is unlikely to bet anything except A-Q or, at a pinch, a brave value bet with Aces.

If double-up's description of the opponent is correct (i.e. "not an idiot") then there is no way he has AK. (The unlikely AdKd should have re-raised on flop.)

The best you can hope for here is a split pot, but I'd say it's 90%+ that you're behind.

Okay, I agree with that.

Come on Dave, tell us he had Jd Td and the Kd fell :D

I was going to fold to a riv bet - just wanted to check I wasn't losing it.  However, I was saved the decision...

*** TURN *** [Qd 9d Qs] [5c]
2PAUL2: checks
davmcg: checks
*** RIVER *** [Qd 9d Qs 5c] [Kd]
2PAUL2: checks
Bert Berns is connected
davmcg: bets $87 and is all-in
2PAUL2: calls $87
*** SHOW DOWN ***
davmcg: shows [Kh Ks] (a full house, Kings full of Queens)
2PAUL2: mucks hand
davmcg collected $393 from pot
davmcg said, "ouch"

hmm

almost

Nice hand! :)

There's not a single hand he could have, and claim to have played it well. He almost certainly had AA and made a bad river call- he is not beating anything that a decent player could be holding. In his position I'd have called (in fact I'd have pushed- after you checked the turn) if anything other than a King had fallen.

oops missed the end of the history

he had AA

Presumably your flop bet was a semi-bluff, as I'm assuming you felt he had AA?

If so, then there are probably better situations to try bluffing on this flop. E.g. If, say, you had called a 4BB raise of his pre-flop- because AQ or KQ would be fairly likely holdings of yours in that instance. In this example though, he is almost certain to take the small chance that you have quads because only a few poor player would pay 15 BBs to see a flop with AQ (or KQ.)

Anyway, nice pot. I do like a happy ending. :)

No it was to be 100% sure he had AA - I don't think I can fold the flop str8 off as you suggested.  Although it is probably right, as AA KK QQ can be his only holdings when he reraises an utg raise.