Anyone disagree that this is AA?

[doubleup]

Table 'Helewalda II' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Kanadian ($190.15 in chips)
Seat 2: TheMinion ($200 in chips)
Seat 3: Bert Berns ($245.75 in chips)
Seat 4: happypumpkin ($132.10 in chips)
Seat 5: Santa Fish1 ($158.55 in chips)
Seat 6: dng_ps ($190.80 in chips)
Seat 7: 2PAUL2 ($224 in chips)
Seat 8: big mike 776 ($200 in chips)
Seat 9: davmcg ($197 in chips)
2PAUL2: posts small blind $1
big mike 776: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to davmcg [ ]
davmcg: raises $8 to $10
Kanadian: folds
TheMinion: folds
Bert Berns: folds
happypumpkin: folds
Santa Fish1: folds
dng_ps: folds
2PAUL2: raises $20 to $30
big mike 776: folds
davmcg: calls $20
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Bert Berns is disconnected
2PAUL2: bets $40
davmcg: raises $40 to $80
2PAUL2: calls $40


Opponent is not an idiot - he must be holding AA here surely - anyone disagree?

[Smart Money]

Almost certainly, but you have to check behind him on the river- he won't fold to a bet of $87.

He's not an idiot, and if he thinks the same of you then he should have you on the following hands in this particular order:

1. KK
2. AA
3. QQ

[doubleup]

Almost certainly, but you have to check behind him on the river- he won't fold to a bet of $87.

If you check the turn are you are calling his river bet if it comes?

[Smart Money]

No, and he will most likely bet the river if you check behind him on the turn. (I meant to say "turn" rather than "river" on my first post.)

However, I would have folded on the flop if I didn't hit my set. If you consider him to be a decent player, then you have to assume his re-raise (against an UTG raiser in a full-handed game) is AA.

[snoopy1239]

Well, he's first to act, so what did he do on the Turn?

[doubleup]

Well, he's first to act, so what did he do on the Turn?

He checked

[snoopy1239]

I would check it down and call a bet on the River.

I imagine he would check Aces on the River, but bet out A-K.

[doubleup]

I would check it down and call a bet on the River.

I imagine he would check Aces on the River, but bet out A-K.

It is not remotely possible he has AK

[snoopy1239]

I would check it down and call a bet on the River.

I imagine he would check Aces on the River, but bet out A-K.

It is not remotely possible he has AK

In that case, I would check and then fold to a bet on the River as he is unlikely to bet anything except A-Q or, at a pinch, a brave value bet with Aces.

[Smart Money]

If double-up's description of the opponent is correct (i.e. "not an idiot") then there is no way he has AK. (The unlikely AdKd should have re-raised on flop.)

The best you can hope for here is a split pot, but I'd say it's 90%+ that you're behind.

[snoopy1239]

Okay, I agree with that.

Come on Dave, tell us he had and the fell

[doubleup]

I was going to fold to a riv bet - just wanted to check I wasn't losing it.  However, I was saved the decision...

*** TURN *** [ ] []
2PAUL2: checks
davmcg: checks
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
2PAUL2: checks
Bert Berns is connected
davmcg: bets $87 and is all-in
2PAUL2: calls $87
*** SHOW DOWN ***
davmcg: shows [ ] (a full house, Kings full of Queens)
2PAUL2: mucks hand
davmcg collected $393 from pot
davmcg said, "ouch"

[snoopy1239]

Okay, I agree with that.

Come on Dave, tell us he had and the fell

hmm

almost

[Smart Money]

Nice hand!

There's not a single hand he could have, and claim to have played it well. He almost certainly had AA and made a bad river call- he is not beating anything that a decent player could be holding. In his position I'd have called (in fact I'd have pushed- after you checked the turn) if anything other than a King had fallen.

[doubleup]

Nice hand!

There's not a single hand he could have, and claim to have played it well. He almost certainly had AA and made a bad river call- he is not beating anything that a decent player could be holding. In his position I'd have called (in fact I'd have pushed- after you checked the turn) if anything other than a King had fallen.

oops missed the end of the history

he had AA