blonde poker forum

How do you calculate how many OUTS you have, been reading few books cant get my head around it?

Hi, welcome to blonde,


Probably the best way of counting outs is to use the example of a flush draw. If you have  2 spades in your hand and there are 2 on the flop you then need one spade to make a flush on the turn or river. So you have 9 outs (the other spades left in the deck) You start with a whole suit of 13 cards , you know where 4 are so there are 9 you can hit.

Hope this helps - if not let me know

Thanks Jezza.

So you count the outs for the hand you are playing for to win???????????????????

yes you count the CLEAN outs you have for the hand your playing to win

remembering some cards will improve your oppos hand aswell as yours

so its card that will make your hand the winning hand

Try the "rule of 4" skippy.

Count your winning outs on the flop. Say, you are 4 to the flush, and you believe that if you hit the flush, you will win, you have 9 outs to hit.

Multiply 9 x 4 - 36, & turn that into a % - 36%. So you are, roughly, a 2/1 shot to hit/win.

12 outs, 12 x 4 = 48, = 48%, or roughly even money.

Now, of course, you must calculate the pot odds, this is an imperative, otherwise there is no point in knowing what your % chance of winning is. If you are 2/1 to hit, & are only getting even money, it's best left alone. Depending upon the circumstances, of course.

OMG i always wanted to ask that question without looking silly...now im more confused  :blonde:

Then again tikey like to make woman dizzy  :D

simple really, do you know what you "outs" are?
if so multiply that amount by 4 and you have a rough percentage, if you miss on the turn then roughly double.

I dont know how to do percentages but i suppose you get a gut feeling after a while and know when to chance your luck

you really NEED to have a rough estimate of your odds to call in a pot, no point putting your cash in as a big underdog.

Okay maybe knowing percentages will help but in reality if you have an allin bluffer and ur pretty sure u got him just coz he calls everything and you think you got the edge...then what??

you need to know that if he is ahead you have outs to hit to win

Yes i know what your saying..but..IMO (and i know im going to get grief for this) reading the players is more important. Okay i dont know how to work the stats and would not raise a hand without reasonable cards with various outs but is it really important to have the best odds??

If you think he's bluffing Suzanne, then you have to back your judgement, & ignore the odds. That's "proper poker"! Be careful he's not bluffing with the best hand though......

Hows the kids been today? No probs with shoes on the wrong feet?

xx

There are times when you call KNOWING you are behind (usually post flop), because the reward is so much greater than the risk. To identify your decision in these scenarios you have to be able to calculate odds.

Oh yes I have been caught out many a time on that one where the bluffer hits a hand when i go all in...doooh. I still think the stats dont really count in some games...btw im talking stt/mtt i agree in rng the odds will win at the end of the day thats why i dont do so good on them lol. Kids have now got girt big L R painted to the bottom of their shoes tikey so no problem there now. LMAO

I see what you are saying Baron but low stacked with JJ and going all in, guy calls with AK...who has the better odds?? Im guessing me with JJ but his AK might hit so your odds dont mean nowt in that situation its just bingo and crossing fingers

you are a slight favourite against 2 overcards but we aren't talking about allin preflop.
We are talking post flop, what are your odds if the flop is A 6 3 with your jacks?
or 6 2 9?

No idea....with A 6 3 i would put a feeler bet and sit on it and probably still get stung...6 2 9 i would go for it and probably get done on 2 pair its like i said i can see where odds would help but i feel IMO gut instinct is more important...btw its probably why i loose a lot hahaha

ok then gut instinct.........

you hold   Jc Tc

flop is  Ah  Qc  8c

your oppo puts you allin and you read him for the ace (you know he has it).......do you call?

Yes i would..but then im a fish...im thinking 9 or club so yes i would risk it...would that be wrong? what r the stats?

actually 9 clubs 3 kings and 3 nines=15 outs.............x 4 = 60%

You are favourite so it's pretty much automatic, though only if you know your rough odds.
Reading players is important but having all the information you can get is doubly so.
I'm not having a pop at you Suzanne just trying to help ;D ;D ;D

I know you r not having a pop..im actually interested but was kinda put off the game after reading SS1 and i lost a bomb so decided to play my own game. That hand would obviously be a gamble as ur man next door has AA and 60% is only a slightly better odds, but i would be inclined to play it anyway just for the thrill coz isnt that what is all about?

Suzanne. SS1 does not suit everyone. I'd go so far as to say it does not suit many.

Just enjoy your poker. Watch & learn. Ask questiions all day on here - the place is full of peeps like ifm who actually ENJOY helping other players learn the ropes.

You'll be alright. Trust me. I'm old.

AWWWWW ((((((tikey))))) ya wee darlin, thats what i do now...I enjoy it and take the bad beats and smile (not). I enjoy convos like this where opinions are discussed and thank you Ian for teaching me right from wrong ;-)

how do you know it a bad beat if you dont know the odds?

Suzanne, remember the rule of four tikay told you about........

on the flop you have 4 to a flush, so 9 outs 9x4=36% to win or c2-1

Ifm also mentioned at the end of a post that the rule of four becomes the rule of two on the turn. You might easily have missed this.


so, say you have

 Kd Ad

and the flop is  8d 4d 2c

you need a diamond to hit the nut flush....It is 9 diamonds you need

the turn is  5c

you still need 1 of 9 diamonds now multiply your outs by 2: 9x2=18% or around 5-1 to hit your card


rule of 4 on the flop
rule of 2 on the turn

If you are 5-1 against hitting with 1 card to come theroetically the pot needs to be offering you these odds to justify a call

so say there is 10,000 in the pot, your opponent bets 5,000...so you have to put in 5,000 to win 15,000....so 3-1 is less than 5-1 and the theory says, avoid



(However at this point you have to consider stack sizes, blind levels and IMPLIED ODDS

Implied odds...you might not have pot odds now but what happens if you hit?....you might win more money from another bet on the river so this would make your odds up making a call on the turn worthwhile

Let us know when you are ready for this!!!)

Its important to be able to assign a range of hands to your opponent(s) as well.

In Tightend's example the  Ad Kd of diamonds may reasonably have more outs than the 9 mentioned. 
If your opponent is holding an overpair in the QQ-99 range you may have 6 more outs (3 aces and 3 kings).  There is always a chance that they are holding AA or KK or even 88,44 or 22.  Obviously the betting and your experience of playing this table will help with this. 

You may be able to say that you have 9 full outs for the flush plus say that 2 times out of 3 an ace or king may be good enough and therefore give yourself 4 more outs from the king or ace falling.  This could turn a fold into a call dependant on pot odds.  On the other hand if you have a read which tells you your opponent almost definitely has AA or KK then you can reduce your outs to 9. 

Hope this is useful.

Good point Ironside  :D Okay I read TightEnds and Dans posts about six times and I think I have sussed out the how the odds work now ie on the flush draw. Would the possiblity of hitting AK not be counted as an out then? The flop mentioned is not a good one so you would have to think what has this guy got..88, 44, 22 or 2 pair, he may also be a fish and drawing for a flush too or bluffing if he is low stacked. Also position of the caller would make a big difference, if the guy is BB he possibly got lucky with 84 82, if he has bought into the pot preflop then you got to put him on over pair, A+. If he has A+ I have him beat/drawn so flush apart I would be likely to play the AK and hope for a catch with the flush as a bonus. The odds would suggest this is not a good hand to play but I probably would. So who else would play it??

me and my big mouth!

I only put the flop cards up at random to include two diamonds, i wasn't suggesting you should or shouldn't play it. Sorry!


As Dan says above, any A Or any K may be an out too.

Well I have been playing online for a bit but just dont have a clue about pot odds. I can work out the hand odds and my outs pretty quick myself, but when you guys start mentioning pot odds I am lost.

Does it mean how much is in the pot and pot commited etc? and based on that you change the % of the hand winning?

It's simple, if you are 2-1 to win the hand, then the pot needs to be twice the size of what you put in.

Now as an example someone bet's $100 into a pot of $100 and you have a flush draw, then it's correct to call (assuming for some reason they won't bet the turn)

If in the same example they bet $150 then you can still call some of the time, to call this now you have to be sure of getting paid when you hit, if the person has bet $150 then your calling $100 to win $250 and so would need to be assured of getting at least another $50 of them, this is probably going to be possible. That is where implied odds come from.


Obviously these are simple example's and it will never be the case where you know someone is going to check the turn after betting the flop. These are purely as examples.

Forget the notion of pot committed here


Hand odds....what odds are you to hit a card that will give you the winning hand?...some cards will be "clean" outs. At it's simplest, this is the way to calculate it.

Pot odds...how much do you have to put into the pot and to win how much...ie what odds are you being offered to call

compare your odds of winning hand versus your odds to call (pot odds) to decide whether the %ages dictate you have a call or not.

Ahh thanks, I kinda get it. You stay in hands where the pot shows value in comparison to your chane of winning and how much you have to put into it.

and note forget how much you've put into it already...once the chips go in the middle they're not yours anymore

just consider the odds you are being offered on your next bet.

EUREKA!

Acidmouse has it. If you did what Acidmouse suggested (though it's not a practical option in truth) on EVERY HAND YOU PLAY, you'd be a winner in the long term - GUARANTEED.

but remember, the long term can be very long and made up of a lot of adverse short terms...this doesn't mean you are necessarily doing wrong, that's just poker!

Just to take this a little further.

How about a simple definition of reverse implied odds?

None of this is bad advice and Tightends reccomendation that you use clean outs only will make sure you never get involved when you are behind, but you will be passing on some situations where you are ahead (on pot odds).
This is where assigning a range of hands to your opponent comes in.  Most mere mortals can't say definitively what your opponent is holding (Peter Costa can according to Tikay's tales - theres a game to avoid), but you can have a good guess at working out what range of hands they may have.  

Experience will tell you what kind of hands they are playing, are they tight or loose, aggressive or passive.  You can use this information to inform your outs calculation.  You should have a go at working out what % of the time this opponent may be bluffing or semi-bluffing and whether they would make this move with top set or an overpair.  If you reason then that 2 out of 3 times they will have an over pair (less than KK) or worse then your 6 outs for Aces or Kings would be 'worth' 4 outs.  Thus you would have 13 outs and the rule of 4 gives you 52% and much better pot odds.

In actual fact if you could put your opponent on  Qc Qs then you would be a 55/45 favourite with  Ad Kd on a flop of  8d 4d 2c.  

The problem is putting your opponent on a range of hands and assigning them a probability.  This is a best guess scenario and relies on 'extra' information such as their style and any tells you can pick up.  It seems like hard work but it will make a difference in the long run.  

To illustrate this in the £5 rebuy at Blackpool on Sunday I saw a guy make a fantastic laydown with QQ preflop because he was absolutely certain the lady who re-raised him had AA or KK.  He had 2.5-1 pot odds to call all in but passed.  She had KK and he got plenty of stick for laying QQ down when the turn brought a Q.   I thought he made a great play especially considering the company he was in.

Lastly, there are plenty of books out there which do a better job than I of explaining things, Harrington volume 1 is a good start.

Another to consider in tournament play is that your survival in the tournament is more important than what the pot is laying you (pot odds). Say you only have 7bb's left in the  Ad Kd example. It is probably a push all in on the flop orif you read is that strong a fold (only against a set is this a reasonable thing). The reason for this is don't want to call off your stack chasing a draw that never materalise, leaving you with virtually no chips left for the rest of the tournament. If you push you could possibly make your opponent fold or have created not far off the 2 to 1 odds needed for your outs to come on turn and river.

In a cash game let the maths be your guide if the maths is right a call is virtually always right. As cash games can be viewed as one long term game where your only aim is to maximise your winnings in every hand. I wouldn't go anywhere near a cash game without knowing pot and implied odds if you want to be a long term winner.

i think for a begginer we can leave out the idea of how many BB;s you need to push with this hand etc.

OK here's a question for you... I have six clean outs after the flop, using the rule of 4, 24% chance of hitting.

Here,s where i'm stuck

 if i have 6 out's from 47 remaining cards. don't that make me just under 6.5-1 underdog,since 6x6 is 36

 where as the chance using the rule of 4 has me at just over 3-1 underdog. what am i missing and what is the real way to work out the odds.

cheers
dumb arse .

Your forgetting the turn AND the river.

ok well would you mind telling me what dog i am here

You are 25% to win, 3-1.

cheers that makes thinkgs much easier for me now.

Thanks for the help

Okay you guys have convinced me as I would like to improve on my cash game. So what is the best book to learn odds? Harrington 1? What on earth is reverse implied odds?

I don't even wanna know.. i'm still getting me head around implied odds

Reverse implied odds are when you end up paying someone off because you got good odds to call.


E.G. You have the nut flush draw on a K55 board, you call a bet and hot your flush, but end up paying of a full house.

Or in a limit game you have T3 in the bb with 2 limps and the SB, the flop comes T72, now the SB bets you get 5-1 on being ahead but the problem here is, if you are ahead you will not get paid off, and you may get outdrawn, you are probably behind to a better T so will end up paying it off.

while we are at it, helping beginners. Was i out of order here.

I was playing a 2/4 cash game at the horseshoe casino last week, I had just busted some guy for all his chips when my KK held up to his JJ, He rebought $300 more chips

The very next hand after his rebuy he raised it to $20 there were 2 callers and i looked down to see 55, I called and the flop comes J 5 J  He bets out $40 next guy folds then a call, I flat call ,turn was a rag   and he bet's out $80 next guy folds, And i look at him then ask the dealer how much is in the pot, after the dealer tells me i call, rivers Q and he lumps it all in, I call, he shows AJ to my boat. He was coating me off for asking the chip count and another bloke at the table just shook his head. But i saw this as the only way to get all his chips, had i known he had the j I might not have done it...

AM I OUT OF ORDER..IS THIS A NO NO ?

Look, I don't know if it was right or not, but personally can't see any problem with what you did. It gets a N1 from me!!

I can't see anything wrong with asking whats in the pot. It's one of those things you need to know during hands.


I actually asked during a PL comp "whats in the pot" i got my answe, was 1500, i said "700" the dealer says i have to bet 1500, as do the other players, i said no i don't blah blah blah they seemed to think just because i asked what the pot was i had to bet it!!! Luckily the cardroom manager had a brain and gave the correct rulling.

I did similar once with the stone cold nuts and asked dealer what was on the pot, on a board where I could be considering pot odds to hit a flush

I milked my two opponents for a few hundred quid more when I bet what looked like a busted draw on the river


I got stick from the table at the time, but when I posted it on here was applauded for good play

yeah my thought here was by asking, he would think im drawing and that im looking at pot odds, I knew he was pissed off with the KK JJ hand, and thought if i look like im trying to draw, he will lump em all in to push me off...he was saying thats BS you flopped the boat and waste the dealers time counting the chips when you know your going to call, don't know how you play in england but thats BS... and on and on he went...anyway since i had never played there before i thought maybe this was not a class thing to do... tough shit...read him right and got all his chips.

I don't see a problem with this bundle to be honest you are trying to extract as much as possible out of the hand and if this is the only way to get him to bet at again its a valid tactic. You could argue that you were asking how much was in the pot to see if he was pot committed to call an all in.

ty

that quote is not quite compelte, its where u have the odds to call but you may make your hand and end up apying of ur oppo

Good point, never thought about it like that