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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: TightEnd on December 03, 2007, 10:38:49 PM



Title: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: TightEnd on December 03, 2007, 10:38:49 PM
This hand is from a few months ago. It took place during a monthly €220 FO at the SE in Dublin. The monthly game in the SE is an excellent tournament in terms of structure and entertainment value. Players start with 8000 chips and the clock runs at 40 mins with every conceivable level and a repeat of the 150 / 300 level where the ante is introduced. From a money making perspective though - there are better tournaments to play. This is due to the game time (10 - 16hrs) and the amount of runners (40 - 70 depending on...). Nonetheless I trudge to it most months because I have the sickness.

Level Three. Blinds 75 / 150. Playing 9 handed.


Table dynamics are fairly active but passive preflop with a higher than expected average Vpip. However postflop action has been fairly aggressive. They are slightly skewed due to the fact that Bob Battersby (a wealthy donater to the Irish poker circuit) and Connor Smyth (good tournament LAG - FT'd the IO in 2006) are at the table. They have being doing a lot of open and early position limping which means that late position players are getting value to limp in behind and are unwilling to get out of line as the two amigos will generally call most raises and see a flop after limping. This leads to more multi – way unraised pots then there should be at this level – but somebody will take the initiative and get chips in on the flop and later streets the vast majority of times.

I am on circa 7,500 chips at the start of the hand in question. I was up to over 10,000 before losing a pot to Bob (man, I hate that guy) a few hands previous. Any other pots I have played I have won or lost without showing down. I have only won one of the multi – way limped pots I have been involved in when I flopped top pair from the small blind. Any chips I have gathered have been through raising pre – flop and following through on flop or turn.

The hand I lost involved me raising Bob's early position limp with AK; betting the flop and turn on a A86cc / 2o board. And calling a 1 / 3 pot donk lead from Bob on a 6 river after a little pause. He showed me 65 and I mucked without showing.

It is important to note that I have a very tight, solid image among most regs on the Irish circuit. I'm probably perceived as being much tighter than I actually am of course - but many regs would not hasten to use the term "Rock" when describing my playing style.

Pre – flop:

American dude (one of the Full Tilt employees currently working at their Dublin office) limps UTG from a 9,000 stack. Has played pots OOP but generally raised in. Not an awful lot known about him as he hasn’t shown down much. However, there has been two previous occasions where he bet // called a raise pre – flop and on the flop and gave up on the later streets. Connor Smith limps in behind – he has done this every single time the American has limped in before him. Connor has 10,500 chips – is playing like a maniac. Involved in over 40% of hands, he is seemingly oblivious to position and pot // implied odds. Connor can play though, and previous experience has shown me that he is capable of floating flops to pounce on hesitation late in hands. He traditionally likes to play suited one - gappers and connectors and take flops.

There is one other limper before it gets around to me in the small blind. I complete with  7c 4c   .

Big blind (a decent player who is out of sorts today due to being badly hungover) checks his option.

Question:Should we complete here? Who folds? If someone wants to make an argument for raising I'll listen.


Flop (750):

 Ac Qc 4d   

I check (and then instantly berate myself internally for not betting my draw). The American bets 600, Connor quickly calls. One fold. I have 14 cards in the deck to potentially interest me on the turn, and I call.

Question:Should we lead this flop? For how much? When it comes back around who would prefer to reraise? If so, how much?


The next part of the hand comes on Wednesday


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: LuckyLloyd on December 03, 2007, 10:47:09 PM
Thanks tightend. FWIW, I made the wrong decision at every point in this hand IMO.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: TightEnd on December 03, 2007, 10:50:32 PM
bugger, I know what comes next..... :-X ::) :o


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: Newmanseye on December 03, 2007, 11:17:02 PM
My preference here is the check raise anyway so i dont mind the check tbh, so once the action comes to us again i am raising to 1800, I like the pot at this point and would prefer to take it down here hence the check raise and the amount to force out the other possible draws and put our American friend to a decision.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: ifm on December 03, 2007, 11:27:34 PM
It is a big leak chipwise to complete sb or call in late position for "value" and one i have addressed personally over recent months but not in deepstack comps so i see nothing wrong with the call.
I may even minraise on occasion but usually only with small PP's to pad the pot in case i hit (generally all limpers call a minraise in a multipot such as this).

As for the flop well it can't be much better can it?
I bet here around 2/3rds of the pot as i don't want to push people off and at the same time i want to now who is interested in the flop.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: jezza777 on December 03, 2007, 11:30:05 PM
A call for me pre flop, odds are too good to pass, I wouldn't pass any hand here although I probably should. Raising isn't a good option  think, I can't stand a reraise and I dont want to play a big pot OOP at this stage of the tourney, there is no need. Passing has got to be horrible getting 9/1 although if you are the type that regularly gets it in on the flop with bottom pair and a draw it may be wise to pass....

I absolutely lead the flop for 500 I want to swell the pot for the times my flush hits and i want to be the first to create any action so I can try to take control of the rest of the hand, also I think it disguises my hand a little. Leading into 4 players with this hand is risky , I dont want to be raised but I do want to get some leverage and perhaps take the pot unimproved later.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: Longy on December 04, 2007, 04:10:33 AM
I think folding/calling are reasonable here pre flop and there isn't much between them. I put alot of value in position and don't complete from the sb anywhere near as much as most people. Against this field with this many limper's and given we reckon to be reasonably competent post flop, i lean towards calling.

Good flop for us and i like to lead here, we might just pick up the pot if no-one has an ace or at least get it heads up with one of the weaker players. The flop lead disguises our hand as it looks more like an ace/2pr/ maybe even a set, therefore giving us deception if our hand improves on later streets as any 4/7 are going to look like blanks and a flush draw seems unlikely to lead into 4 opponents here.

Hmm once we check and we get a bet and a call, things are starting to get really interesting. I think folding is not good, we are getting over 3 to 1 from the pot for our 14 potential outs. The problem is we don't know which outs are good for us we have a baby flush draw and a club may well be a disaster, our 7 and 4 might not be good if our opponents have 2pr/set already. Also extracting value from our hand oop on later streets is alot more difficult than with position for obvious reasons. So I'm leaning towards a check raise to about 2500 and if we get set in we have to call.

Good hand Lloyd this looks like it could get quite complex.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: LuckyLloyd on December 04, 2007, 09:48:11 AM
My preference here is the check raise anyway so i dont mind the check tbh, so once the action comes to us again i am raising to 1800, I like the pot at this point and would prefer to take it down here hence the check raise and the amount to force out the other possible draws and put our American friend to a decision.

Are you suggesting that we can make it 1800 and then fold if the US dude 3 bets all - in?


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: LuckyLloyd on December 04, 2007, 09:56:00 AM
Folks, couple of questions:

- When the action comes back to us on the flop there is now 1950 in the middle. Plus our 600 if we continue equals 2550. I have 6750 behind. Surely if we want to check raise we should shove?

- What is the advantage in making it like 2500 to play?

Also, consider that all we would not be happy getting it in against is the nutflushdraw or a set. Given the flop is AQ4 it makes it unlikely anyone has a set (particularly considering that I have the 4). Sure, the US dude may have open limped AA or QQ. But given the much higher than normal frequency of multilimped pots preflop I would be surprised if this is the case.

So, that leaves us worrying about a higher flushdraw and overcards against which we would have to fade 13 outs. Considering my table image - surely shoving when it gets back around to us is what we want to do here?


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: Newmanseye on December 04, 2007, 10:03:47 AM
My preference here is the check raise anyway so i dont mind the check tbh, so once the action comes to us again i am raising to 1800, I like the pot at this point and would prefer to take it down here hence the check raise and the amount to force out the other possible draws and put our American friend to a decision.

Are you suggesting that we can make it 1800 and then fold if the US dude 3 bets all - in?

No, Never, if he pushes i would call, but i always race when i dont need to, I think a checkraise should be enough to take the pot down, given the table image, also we are OOP and any player wrth his salt would have to give us credit to make such a move oop with a good image, and we have alot of outs too.

As for just pushing rather than check raise is a bit of overkill being honest, I would gladly take the race if he shoves back.


Also, this is one of the best boards we could have asked for in order to win an extra pot with little invested preflop


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: boldie on December 04, 2007, 10:30:28 AM
nice hand....


I don't like to fold pre-flop with soo many chippies to be win if I only complete..and it's a weakness i think..it's a way to bleed chips and nothing else. But, OK..I limp (as I always do)

On the flop I lead out more often than not. I am rather hoping someone will move over the top of me here and get everyone else to fold. Indeed being up against the nut flush draw would not be good..but then again he's not hit anything yet so for now all he would have is 2 overs.

I bet out around 600..and if someone reraises I call..If someone pushes/reraises and he finds a caller I let it go. I want to play this pot against one other guy..I have no interest in being OOP against 2 people in this pot with a tiny FD.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: Longy on December 04, 2007, 11:23:49 AM
Folks, couple of questions:

- When the action comes back to us on the flop there is now 1950 in the middle. Plus our 600 if we continue equals 2550. I have 6750 behind. Surely if we want to check raise we should shove?

- What is the advantage in making it like 2500 to play?

Also, consider that all we would not be happy getting it in against is the nutflushdraw or a set. Given the flop is AQ4 it makes it unlikely anyone has a set (particularly considering that I have the 4). Sure, the US dude may have open limped AA or QQ. But given the much higher than normal frequency of multilimped pots preflop I would be surprised if this is the case.

So, that leaves us worrying about a higher flushdraw and overcards against which we would have to fade 13 outs. Considering my table image - surely shoving when it gets back around to us is what we want to do here?

Hmmm i didn't consider shoving, should have paid greater attention to the stack sizes as I thought we were deeper.

The advantages to this is that it certainly is an +ev move, given how much is in the pot, the amount of fold equity we are likely to have is quite sizeable (tho admittedly difficult to mathematical quantify) and our hand plays well against most ranges apart from bigger flushes, sets. We also won't be faced with shoving a blank turn oop, or even worse giving up on the hand having put a 1/3 of our stack in, not that i would advocate the latter play.

The disadvantages against thinking players surely this is like turning you hand face up, I mean it looks exactly like what it is a combo draw. Wouldn't me make it less with say a set of 4's, we never have aa or qq here and aq is unlikely surely we raise all these preflop (obv the same could be said about our opponents). This reduces our fold equity if one of our opponent reads our hand correctly.

Given this is a tourney and we don't have to be as consistent in our lines as we do say against regulars in online cash games. I actually favour shoving having thought about it.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: MANTIS01 on December 04, 2007, 03:45:33 PM
Brunson said "Never go broke in an unraised pot" and although we've all heard this a thousand times before I still like it. In fact I like it a lot. Doyle also advocates leading out with draws and this is a good strategy. But I wouldn't lead here.

As first to act in a pot contested by 5 players you will undoubtedly face a raise...and probably more than one (Board + aggressive post-flop play). You will be leading into a competent UTG limper, a maniac, and two other players. The American will definitely raise his limped Ace but if he did decide to just call (which he wouldn't) the maniac would probably squeeze anyway.

The flop is ok for us but I don't want to get all my chips in with the hand if I can help it just yet. If the money does go in on the flop we will be behind and drawing thin for sure. Will the players who bet out push to a raise and a call or raise, re-raise? I think these would be your choices when it gets back to you.

You have been chased all the way down with bottom pair a moment ago and this shows the mentality you're facing. Betting out will not be respected, it will create action and things will get messy. I like the check here to see how things work out before it gets back to me.

So I check (hoping for an invitation to c-r)

When the action gets back to me I have that invitation, I would be almost certain the American has the best hand at the table but he has a quick-calling (and probably unwanted) customer in the bottom pair loving maniac. I see this as an opportunity to squeeze any day of the week and make it say 2,050. All I want here is to loose the American...and he is going to find it very difficult to continue unless he has proper strength (his flop bet says A-J to me though). If I can squeeze him out with the best hand I will take my chances against the maniac. The bet size is to get these guys asking why? and this is half-way to them folding. Coupled with my tight image I am hopeful of taking this pot now.

My image + the check-raise + stange bet size + not going all-in?? mean the table see my hand as very strong whereas an all-in push would spoil that illusion for sure. I can still get away from the hand if heavy action follows as well. If American guy is squeezed out and I go to the turn with maniac then I check a club with the intention of calling all-in and bet all-in if it's a brick.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: snoopy1239 on December 05, 2007, 07:16:58 AM
I would check this flop with the intention of check-raising so I can hopefully take it down there and then. If we bet out, then, especially with four other players in the hand, we are likely to be heading to the turn out of position and with no real idea of how strong our opponents are. If he's smooth-called your flop bet after limping, then he could have the the flush draw, any Ace, the set of Fours, or even a Queen, you just won't know. However, if you check-raise a chunky amount, you'll probably find out. Also, there are many hands that will fold the flop (which I'm happy to see happen considering I don't have a made hand), yet few that actually beat me. At the moment, I'm only worried about an A-4, set of fours or maybe Q-4 from the big blind (you'd expect A-A, Q-Q and A-Q to raise pre-flop), but even then, those are less likely due to your holding a 4 in your own hand. So, a big check-raise for me to sort the men from the boys. I plan to bet the Turn (most cards) if they call. Incidentally, my check-raise would be big enough to give a flush draw the wrong odds to call, but not so big that an Ace can put me on the draw and make a hero call. We'd be in good shape still, but I'd prefer to limit my coinflips.

Given that there is a bettor and a caller, I would prefer to keep the pot small and just flat-call the bet, and then re-asses the situation on the Turn. Having two players in on a flop of that texture makes a big difference in my opinion, because it increases the chances of someone having the superior flush draw so increasing the size of a bet in a trickier situation isn't a good idea. I'm praying for a red Four.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: AlexMartin on December 05, 2007, 10:07:00 AM
I would definitely bet for information. Value's overrated.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: TightEnd on December 05, 2007, 10:09:08 AM
Part Two from Lloyd

Turn (2550):

 8s

I check. American procrastinates a bit before betting 1200 with a sigh. Connor insta – calls again.

Pot is now 4950. 1200 to call back to me. I have 6,700 chips remaining.

Question: What do you do and why?? If you think a certain action is absolutely standard here can you please explain your thinking?? Should I have led the turn as played?



Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: Longy on December 05, 2007, 11:13:07 AM
I hate leading the turn here, i feel for sure you get looked up in one spot here which is not good. Our hand has lost a ton of equity after missing the turn. So i check.

Hmmm the sigh and then bet is weird, indicates to me a strong hand. Insta call is either a marginal hand or draw, I would be super surprised if it is a strong hand, as that would be a very weird thing to do with a monster with us to act behind looking like we are drawing.

We are getting 4 to 1 which is enough equity for our hand to flat call, I can't see shoving here being a great idea but to be honest i hate the way this hand is going. I feel like a weak passive nit.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: boldie on December 05, 2007, 11:43:32 AM
I would definitely bet for information. Value's overrated.

lmao


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: boldie on December 05, 2007, 11:47:53 AM
Part Two from Lloyd

Turn (2550):

 8s

I check. American procrastinates a bit before betting 1200 with a sigh. Connor insta – calls again.

Pot is now 4950. 1200 to call back to me. I have 6,700 chips remaining.

Question: What do you do and why?? If you think a certain action is absolutely standard here can you please explain your thinking?? Should I have led the turn as played?



As played I fold here and fairly fast. I didn't like the check on the flop (I advocated leading out)..the sigh and insta-call would mean to me that someone is far FAR ahead and the other calling might mean my FD is dead in the water. It's only 1200 to call but theres no value in raising, so raising is out...I can see why people call here but I think it's a sure fire way of bleeding chips.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: Newmanseye on December 05, 2007, 05:02:49 PM
Well the dwell waste time and bet with a sigh conjours images of a set, but it depends if the american is capable of the reverse bluff, the insta call also makes our flush fade a little, If this hand was to be won, it was on the flop.

given the info we have i advocate a fold, we have enough chips left at this stage to come back, the tun on this hand goves me a bad feeling and i think we are gonna get shafted if we stay in the pot.


Fold and rebuild.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: AlexMartin on December 05, 2007, 05:10:16 PM
? Seriously how does the 8 affect his hand in any way. Its the biggest brick in the deck. Multiway i doubt his "sigh" is anything to truly go by. The  % no. of reverse tells on the live scene is pretty much high enough to ignore this unless it ties in with his betting patterns. A8? I doubt it.

I like Snoopy's thoughts fwiw.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: NoflopsHomer on December 05, 2007, 05:35:32 PM
I lead for 500 on the flop intending to 3-bet all-in vs 1 raise. On the turn vs 1 caller I check/raise all-in if I've missed and bet for value if I've hit, . Given Lloyd's tight image I think he's unlikely to get more than 1 caller most of the time. If more than one player calls on the flop or there's a raise and a call on the flop, then I'm giving up the hand or playing everything very cautiously from now.

(NB - the above has not really been thought through at all mainly due to constant coughing, illness and a lack of ability to concentrate at the moment)


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: boldie on December 05, 2007, 06:20:47 PM
? Seriously how does the 8 affect his hand in any way. Its the biggest brick in the deck. Multiway i doubt his "sigh" is anything to truly go by. The  % no. of reverse tells on the live scene is pretty much high enough to ignore this unless it ties in with his betting patterns. A8? I doubt it.

I like Snoopy's thoughts fwiw.

the 8 doesn't affect the way the hand..not at all.. You're still likely to be miles behind (you can't seriously think you're ahead here) and it doesn't look like mateyboys will fold to a re-raise all in..(the insta call pretty much suggest at least one of them won't) so you're not beating anything other than if one of them has a FD and he's the only caller when you check-raise. I don't see how a flat call does anything other than bleed chips so I'm thinking folding is the only option.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: snoopy1239 on December 05, 2007, 06:46:27 PM
I would say that the American has a big hand like A-4 or 4-4 because he tends to give up on the streets, yet here he is firing consecutive bullets and displaying less passivity than in previous pots. This would also explain the size of his bets, small enough to lure his opponents into calling, or maybe even re-raising. Conor, however, is more likely to have the flush draw, say K-T of clubs, mainly because he has been playing like a maniac and knows that if he hits, could get paid. If he had a made hand, then he probably would have raised at some point knowing that he is likely to get called, especially with the draw on board. With this in mind, I fold my hand. Your stack is still very playable and there is too good a chance that you are up against a made hand or a bigger flush draw or both. If I were to play the hand, then it would have to be a push due to your fragile stack size and the fact that you'd be out of position on the River with no idea where you stand. Finally, if the sigh is as blatant as you make it sound, then that further cements my decision, although I wouldn't wholly base my decision on what could be a double bluff from our American friend.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: LuckyLloyd on December 06, 2007, 11:02:29 AM
I would say that the American has a big hand like A-4 or 4-4 because he tends to give up on the streets, yet here he is firing consecutive bullets and displaying less passivity than in previous pots. This would also explain the size of his bets, small enough to lure his opponents into calling, or maybe even re-raising. Conor, however, is more likely to have the flush draw, say K-T of clubs, mainly because he has been playing like a maniac and knows that if he hits, could get paid. If he had a made hand, then he probably would have raised at some point knowing that he is likely to get called, especially with the draw on board. With this in mind, I fold my hand. Your stack is still very playable and there is too good a chance that you are up against a made hand or a bigger flush draw or both. If I were to play the hand, then it would have to be a push due to your fragile stack size and the fact that you'd be out of position on the River with no idea where you stand. Finally, if the sigh is as blatant as you make it sound, then that further cements my decision, although I wouldn't wholly base my decision on what could be a double bluff from our American friend.

Good IMO. We shouldn't get here. Now that we did, I like that analysis. Of course, I didn't actually do the right thing now, did I?  ;booboo;


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: Tragic on December 06, 2007, 11:19:33 AM
Brunson said "Never go broke in an unraised pot" and although we've all heard this a thousand times before I still like it. In fact I like it a lot. Doyle also advocates leading out with draws and this is a good strategy. But I wouldn't lead here.

Who is this Brunson kid anyway? If I don't check shove here it's because i'm dead.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: Tragic on December 06, 2007, 11:21:49 AM
I would never ever be in this position by the turn (see previous post). You now clearly have 9 outs max, and connor could have you dominated on those outs. Bin it and move on.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: bolt pp on December 12, 2007, 06:02:46 PM
wheres the end of this one?


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: TightEnd on December 12, 2007, 06:04:26 PM
September 2013

or when Lloyd answers my PMs whichever comes first


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: bolt pp on December 12, 2007, 06:30:22 PM
September 2013

or when Lloyd answers my PMs whichever comes first

So let me get this right, Lloyd wont post(unless it's to say "whatever")and mantis wouldn't shut up so we've wound up with flushy?



Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: LuckyLloyd on December 12, 2007, 06:47:25 PM
September 2013

or when Lloyd answers my PMs whichever comes first

So let me get this right, Lloyd wont post(unless it's to say "whatever")and mantis wouldn't shut up so we've wound up with flushy?



I'll write it up later. Sorry.


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: boldie on December 13, 2007, 09:40:49 AM
September 2013

or when Lloyd answers my PMs whichever comes first

So let me get this right, Lloyd wont post(unless it's to say "whatever")and mantis wouldn't shut up so we've wound up with flushy?



 rotflmfao


Title: Re: Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))
Post by: Royal Flush on December 13, 2007, 04:36:55 PM
LOL