Lucky Lloyd's Tournament HOTW: Warning, allow time :-))

[TightEnd]

Part Two from Lloyd

Turn (2550):

 

I check. American procrastinates a bit before betting 1200 with a sigh. Connor insta – calls again.

Pot is now 4950. 1200 to call back to me. I have 6,700 chips remaining.

Question: What do you do and why?? If you think a certain action is absolutely standard here can you please explain your thinking?? Should I have led the turn as played?

[Longy]

I hate leading the turn here, i feel for sure you get looked up in one spot here which is not good. Our hand has lost a ton of equity after missing the turn. So i check.

Hmmm the sigh and then bet is weird, indicates to me a strong hand. Insta call is either a marginal hand or draw, I would be super surprised if it is a strong hand, as that would be a very weird thing to do with a monster with us to act behind looking like we are drawing.

We are getting 4 to 1 which is enough equity for our hand to flat call, I can't see shoving here being a great idea but to be honest i hate the way this hand is going. I feel like a weak passive nit.

[boldie]

I would definitely bet for information. Value's overrated.

lmao

[boldie]

Part Two from Lloyd

Turn (2550):

 

I check. American procrastinates a bit before betting 1200 with a sigh. Connor insta – calls again.

Pot is now 4950. 1200 to call back to me. I have 6,700 chips remaining.

Question: What do you do and why?? If you think a certain action is absolutely standard here can you please explain your thinking?? Should I have led the turn as played?

As played I fold here and fairly fast. I didn't like the check on the flop (I advocated leading out)..the sigh and insta-call would mean to me that someone is far FAR ahead and the other calling might mean my FD is dead in the water. It's only 1200 to call but theres no value in raising, so raising is out...I can see why people call here but I think it's a sure fire way of bleeding chips.

[Newmanseye]

Well the dwell waste time and bet with a sigh conjours images of a set, but it depends if the american is capable of the reverse bluff, the insta call also makes our flush fade a little, If this hand was to be won, it was on the flop.

given the info we have i advocate a fold, we have enough chips left at this stage to come back, the tun on this hand goves me a bad feeling and i think we are gonna get shafted if we stay in the pot.


Fold and rebuild.

[AlexMartin]

? Seriously how does the 8 affect his hand in any way. Its the biggest brick in the deck. Multiway i doubt his "sigh" is anything to truly go by. The  % no. of reverse tells on the live scene is pretty much high enough to ignore this unless it ties in with his betting patterns. A8? I doubt it.

I like Snoopy's thoughts fwiw.

[NoflopsHomer]

I lead for 500 on the flop intending to 3-bet all-in vs 1 raise. On the turn vs 1 caller I check/raise all-in if I've missed and bet for value if I've hit, . Given Lloyd's tight image I think he's unlikely to get more than 1 caller most of the time. If more than one player calls on the flop or there's a raise and a call on the flop, then I'm giving up the hand or playing everything very cautiously from now.

(NB - the above has not really been thought through at all mainly due to constant coughing, illness and a lack of ability to concentrate at the moment)

[boldie]

? Seriously how does the 8 affect his hand in any way. Its the biggest brick in the deck. Multiway i doubt his "sigh" is anything to truly go by. The  % no. of reverse tells on the live scene is pretty much high enough to ignore this unless it ties in with his betting patterns. A8? I doubt it.

I like Snoopy's thoughts fwiw.

the 8 doesn't affect the way the hand..not at all.. You're still likely to be miles behind (you can't seriously think you're ahead here) and it doesn't look like mateyboys will fold to a re-raise all in..(the insta call pretty much suggest at least one of them won't) so you're not beating anything other than if one of them has a FD and he's the only caller when you check-raise. I don't see how a flat call does anything other than bleed chips so I'm thinking folding is the only option.

[snoopy1239]

I would say that the American has a big hand like A-4 or 4-4 because he tends to give up on the streets, yet here he is firing consecutive bullets and displaying less passivity than in previous pots. This would also explain the size of his bets, small enough to lure his opponents into calling, or maybe even re-raising. Conor, however, is more likely to have the flush draw, say K-T of clubs, mainly because he has been playing like a maniac and knows that if he hits, could get paid. If he had a made hand, then he probably would have raised at some point knowing that he is likely to get called, especially with the draw on board. With this in mind, I fold my hand. Your stack is still very playable and there is too good a chance that you are up against a made hand or a bigger flush draw or both. If I were to play the hand, then it would have to be a push due to your fragile stack size and the fact that you'd be out of position on the River with no idea where you stand. Finally, if the sigh is as blatant as you make it sound, then that further cements my decision, although I wouldn't wholly base my decision on what could be a double bluff from our American friend.

[LuckyLloyd]

I would say that the American has a big hand like A-4 or 4-4 because he tends to give up on the streets, yet here he is firing consecutive bullets and displaying less passivity than in previous pots. This would also explain the size of his bets, small enough to lure his opponents into calling, or maybe even re-raising. Conor, however, is more likely to have the flush draw, say K-T of clubs, mainly because he has been playing like a maniac and knows that if he hits, could get paid. If he had a made hand, then he probably would have raised at some point knowing that he is likely to get called, especially with the draw on board. With this in mind, I fold my hand. Your stack is still very playable and there is too good a chance that you are up against a made hand or a bigger flush draw or both. If I were to play the hand, then it would have to be a push due to your fragile stack size and the fact that you'd be out of position on the River with no idea where you stand. Finally, if the sigh is as blatant as you make it sound, then that further cements my decision, although I wouldn't wholly base my decision on what could be a double bluff from our American friend.

Good IMO. We shouldn't get here. Now that we did, I like that analysis. Of course, I didn't actually do the right thing now, did I? 

[Tragic]

Brunson said "Never go broke in an unraised pot" and although we've all heard this a thousand times before I still like it. In fact I like it a lot. Doyle also advocates leading out with draws and this is a good strategy. But I wouldn't lead here.

Who is this Brunson kid anyway? If I don't check shove here it's because i'm dead.

[Tragic]

I would never ever be in this position by the turn (see previous post). You now clearly have 9 outs max, and connor could have you dominated on those outs. Bin it and move on.

[bolt pp]

wheres the end of this one?

[TightEnd]

September 2013

or when Lloyd answers my PMs whichever comes first

[bolt pp]

September 2013

or when Lloyd answers my PMs whichever comes first

So let me get this right, Lloyd wont post(unless it's to say "whatever")and mantis wouldn't shut up so we've wound up with flushy?