blonde poker forum

comp £500 + £50 LIVE DTD
85 runners start with 7500TC

20 runners left
blinds 1000/2000 with a running ante of 200
your on a table of 7

you have never been above 14k in the whole comp and not had any major hands and have been surving on steals
only once getting a double up with k4 v A2 (blinds)

you have 9900TC and post 200 of that in the ante and are UTG

you get A4o push or not?
if you do push is there any hand you wouldnt push with?
if you dont push what is the minium you would push with?

UTG? no I don't push with it. anyone with a better ace calls....I'd much rather push with suited connecters, or even with complete garbage like you would have been getting before you got to be UTG ..what hands have you had that  you came to be UTG asking whether you should push with A4?

See what you're saying boldie, but there's only six other players on the table so it's more utg than UTG.

I still push in that spot

i was getting no cards and no option to push as the aggressive players were getting in raises before me and i didnt have any chance of them folding
i was looking for any chance to push without looking at cards (or pretending to look) but ash and skalie were raising and if they were steve was sat behind me waiting to call my pushes

the other option that a couple of people said they would think about is letting the blinds pass giving them 5 hands to find something better but knowing you will get called

my thinking on this is that you know your getting called and even if you do win your still in the same spot 10k

yeah OK..but when you have 7 BB's you're not looking to nick the blinds..you're looking for a double up. So if Ash or Skalie raise I call with 5-7 and 6-8 and all that. All I want is for me to have 2 live cards and for them not to have a pair..(and ussually they won't)..I don't mind them having 2 overcards as I need to take risks to get my double up and this is the time.

I agree about letting the blinds pass being bad BTW (In fact it would be dire) ..I'm just advocating calling with lower cards when an aggressive player pushes and hope for a double up.

edit..the above was of course meant as in how it should have been before you came to be UTG.

im letting this go

but with the knowledge that if u pick up any semblance of even half a hand in either blind....ur going with it...

crunch time and it looks like u need a treble up or even a double double in less than 14 hands

Shove now. Shoving now with an Ace and possible fold equity is infinitely preferable to feeling compelled to get it in with much worse hands when in the blinds. Because then if a player enters the pot before it gets to you they aren't folding.

Also, if this tournament is in the UK there is absolutely a good chance that it folds all the way around when you shove.

However, I never allow myself to get to this spot unless I lose a massive showdown the hand before. Your chips should have been in long before this.

beleive me i tried to get my chips in middle every time i shoved in an orphaned pot it got through apart from the K4 with got called

i did blow a few chips just before when i had to let 66 go after making it 3600 and running them into Tens

i would of loved to have pushed with a weaker hand but the times i did push i never got called and i just havent got the game to call with 7c 4c with i had 3 hands in a row part of the 5 hands out of 9 i had eitehr a full or half wilson

infact i went 30 hands without seeing a card bigger than a 9 and only 5 of the hands were suited and then not conected

easy to say push but when all your chances to push are met without a call (yes i got in a few steals) and your getting nothing to double up with there aint much you can do

urgh. i'd rather push  Th 4h than  Ahrt 4c here if it helps. :)

Insta shove it really isn't close with the antes.

Your fold equity is still reasonable and presumably your image is tight as, due to being card dead.

My range for shoving is pretty wide, with the antes in play i wouldn't be surprised if shoving 100% is inexploitable. In game i probably shove about top 65%.

Also if you stick this in an ICM calculator of sorts it doesn't take into account the blinds coming round which means shoving here is even more +ev.

me too but would you rather push with A4o utg or call with 93 in LP

6 handed and with the situation as it is I don't think you can afford NOT to push.

I push here- of course theres a good chance you'll get called by a higher ace but still have outs so think its time to gamble with so little chips-in general with you being so low in chips other players will be aware your making a move and will call with a lot of hands such as suited connectors and hands like KQ, QJ etc

call with 93 against serial raisers who are givin me value by pushing out the blunds thereby making sure I get 2.5 times the amount of chips I have now.

Ugh im sure this is massively flawed logic and if I can be bothered at some point, I might try and prove it mathematically. I mean wow I can't believe for one minute this is sensible.

I probably been sucked in here by some big in-joke, right?

yeah...though not an in-joke..unless it' a reference to some mug on Blonde who once won a hand with 93 suited.

Sorry Longy ;) with 67 suited against a lag raiser when I'm this low I call though but not with 9-3 and all that I do however think it's just about criminal to get yourself into 5BB territory unless you have taken a massive hit and can't keep stressing that enough.

Oh i agree with you about the 2nd point, we really should be doing our hardest to stop ourselves getting this short in an mtt (sng's are different because of payout structure), but i think calling off our chips with low cards seems like madness compared to shoving a wide range, whenever we get the opportunity.

yeah I think we essentially agree on everything.

I would be interested to hear peoples range on hands they CALL with in late position when faced with serial raisers on a 7 handed table and they find themselves with 5-6BB's.

Its 1 of 2 choices for me, either push with A2 here, or call with ANY the next hand, I push...

The average stack is 32K, if you let the blinds pass, u need to double just to get back to the exact situation your in now, in fact, its an easy push for me...

pushing with weak aces from early position in mtts. LOL.

learn math. :)

You have 6 players to get past and less than 5 big blinds...

it's not that which is my concern. its that you're all acting like a weak ace is a good hand to push with when math wise its the worst to push with!

O rly, I have just stuck it an ICM simulator for sng's and it comes out to about neutral equity given a range for calling as A7+ 44+ KJ+. This doesn't take into affect the blinds coming round next which you can always add on about +.2% of the prize pool for there effect.

You should always be pushing wider in MTT's as the prize pool dictates so surviving has less equity reward in comparison to sng format.

Maybe i should learn math(s) tho.

i'm aware of the equations the ICM calc uses. i have used it myself for SnGs ect. and can do them in my head cause i'm a snotty arrogant student. :)
however, you need to consider the calling range of your opponents a little more. basically. if you get called you're dominated a huge % of the time when you shove with a rag ace. whereas if you shove with sooted rags you're actually alot better off against the hands you're likely to get called with.

my point is. if you shove A4o here. you shove ANY TWO CARDS here. ke?

yep, spot on.

yes, but having an ace in your hand reduces the A/x combinations that call you, so the frequency with which they call you is a fair bit lower, which obviously increases the chances of you winning the pot without showdown.

smkgjkhjgsjgsfjgfjgfjgg

MY GOD YOU GUYS ARE SOOOO WRONG.

Do some pokerstove experiments. Stick 43s in against a range of 77+ // A8o+ // A6s+ // KJs+.

Now do the same, this time running A4 against that range. Be intrigued at what you find.

Additionally, consider that when you shove 5BBs from UTG you actually get a fold out of some of the above range. Particularly the weaker Aces // the Kings // the lower pairs. Whether people should or shouldn't fold in such situations is irrelevant. They do.

Now, think about the fact that you are at a seven handed table; not ten; and there is a diminished possibillity that anyone picks up one of the above hands in an individual orbit of the table.

FINALLY: think about what happens the next two hands where you may have to get it all in with two random cards and NO fold equity. Or openshove 3.5 BBs the next orbit of the table if you let the blinds pass through.

Maths? Don't bang on about something like it's fact until YOU DO THE FUCKING MATHS.

This is a shove. And it really, really isn't close at all.

it's fair enough that you want to push here..Like I said previously..unless I lose a big part of my stack the hand before I won't be in this situation as I will have pushed earlier.

What range would you call all-in with though in late position against a serial raiser when you have 5bb's left?

getting into the 5bb's was a case of not getting called when pushing and not getting the chance to push more often

i would much rather steal a round of blinds each round waiting to hopefully get a double up rather than call off my TOURNY with 93o or 84

once your out there is no comeback

as for choosing which hand to push with your options are UTG with A4 or letting the blinds pass you didnt get the option to change your cars to 67s allthough i will suggest that to yogi as a new game for the future

 rotflmfao rotflmfao :)up

Yo, serial raisers tend to tighten up their open raising range when someone is in the blinds with 4 BBs behind. So their hand is always better than random - and your hand will be random.

That said, if we fold A4 UTG here, and next hand third to act or later opens the pot 3x and it folds to me, I have to get 4BBs arrr in when there is already 2.5 in the pot. So, I dunno, I guess I call Q7o+.

I have done the maths and in isolation this push is ev- (if called by any better hand), so it is closer than you are making out.

I would suggest you start you calculations again as not a4o is alot stronger than any two cards here and should be in your top 35% shoving range, IT IS superior to shoving 104s and is equivalent to shoving j7s or similar.

As for calling range give me a good range, this is a good example where actually the wider they call it is becomes slight -EV  (this is for sngs) and then become +ev again once they start calling really wide. The tighter they call, than my prescribed range it becomes +ev due to the amount of time your opponents fold.

Applying this logic to MTT's should give you a base for pushing ranges, but it is different as payout structures mean that pushing wider is almost always correct.

Seriously the only other person talking sense in this thread is Lloyd, but then again thats no surprise.

With just 6 at the table, you have to push an Ace. You're unlikely to find a better hand if you let the blinds pass, especially considering (1) people are taking your first move away from you and (2) you won't have enough to push off players behind you. 10-handed, I fold, because I'll have more chances to find a hand on the next round, knowing that I'm going to get called.

I push any two with less than 5 bbs utg esp with antes. This is fairly standard in my mind.

Surely it's either push now or call allin next hand in the BB and as you have a better than average hand now and a modicum of FE which is all you need (assuming your opponents calling range only ever dominates you, which is too tight a range anyway, you only need a fold about 20% of the time for this to be +EV)... ship away.

Letting the blinds go through you seems suicidal as you may only be doubling to 7-8 BBs or less if you survive your double up attempt in the next round (when you will have almost 0 fold equity).

This is a trivially easy shove with any 2 cards, when you find a hand that actually runs fairly close against the BB's calling range even better!

Passing here is a massive losing play.

Never surrender your fold equity, it is your main short stacked weapon.

i agree with both of you

but a couple of well known BIG players thought i should of waited which is why i posted here

I think alot of big name players play shortstacked not particularly well. As they don't understand the mathematics behind it all, you only have to look at the full tilt/pokerstars pro's playing sng's online, I can't think of one who isn't considered to be a massive donator in these games.

Names like: Barry Greenstein, Daniel Negreanu, Allen Cunningham etc.

i said big players not names

as in they play more than me at a bigger level and have more experiance

Same still prob applies but even more so but of course i don't know who commented on the hand.

Big winners or big losers?

You ppl do know that fold equity is about getting hands that should call to fold?  There is virtually no fold equity with this hand.  You do realise that winning poker is about our opponents mistakes?  There is virtually no chance of our opponents making a mistake here.   With this hand you have about a 60% chance of running into a pair or a better ace.  Pushing j8 here is a much better play than pushing a4.

You're wrong. Show me your maths.

Oh, and - it is more accurate to say that winning poker is about making plus EV decisions.

9 better aces = 108/1225 any pair = 72/1225 

1- (180/1225) =.853~ 

.853^6 = .385~

1-.385 =.61

J8 runs into less dominated hands and obv has much more fold equity. e.g Q8, j9 (Although having looked at this at bit more j8 is about the same in ev terms if called by any pair or a5+).  So they are both slightly ev- in isolation on this basis.  I don't see how someone with Ironside's table image (deserved or not) is going to get called with a worse hand and tbh the biggest problem with royal flush's advice is that it generally only applies to someone with his image who will get looked up with a worse hand.

Overall I do agree that this is a push if you take the view that you should push when it only slightly ev- because of blinds.  I don't think this is a push though with 6bbs so to characterise it as a no brainer isn't correct.

Assuming you assign them the range of Any A or any pair, unlikely for the guys in EP, but lets go with it anyway.

You pick up the blinds and antes 40% of the time! Happy Days!

That is not the right way of approaching the problem.

Assuming we get called by a range of 66+ // A6s+ //A8o+ // K10s+ you need to pokerstove how our hand (A4o) compares against that range as opposed to J8.

Then you can't ignore the fact that the most FE we will have will be in this spot (5xBB UTG - I genuinely believe that some of the hands I have listed above will fold). If we let the blinds pass we will have NO fold equity.

You can't fold here because "an Ace is usually dominated"; "I prefer suited cards"; "I'll get called x% of the time".

Blah, blah. Needs must. We don't have a choice given our stack and table position relative to the next round of blinds.

SHOVESKI!!

If you managed to get a fold through 40% of the time and the other 60% of the time you get called and dominated this is massively +EV in  this situation.

FMP

You said my statement was incorrect, I provided the requested figures. 

ps There is no way OP gets called with KTs. 

errr no it isn't

Hint you win .4 x 2.2 bbs when you get a fold - how much do you lose the 60% of the time you are called

Ok you have 9700 after posting the 200 ante.

Blinds are 1,000, 2000.

If you shove and are called the pot will have 9700 +9700 +4400 =23,800  if called by the 4 players out of the blinds OR  21,800 if called by the big blind, 22,800 if called by the small blind, averaging the pot out at 23,300.

As you are talking about better aces and pairs, pokerstove runs A4o as  32.79% against a range of 22+,A5s+,A5o+.

Your equity if called is 32.79% * 23,300 =7640.07.

Equity if they pass 9700 + 4400 = 14,100.

---

Overall equity...

(60%* 7,640.07 = 4,584.04)

+

(40% * 14,100  =  5,640)

= 10,224.04
....
+EV

In reality it is slightly more complex than this as you get called by worse hands sometimes of course and you assume that other players in EP auto call hands like A5 with players acting behind them (plus of course you may get multiple calls) but this is essentially the situation. It's +EV to call given the range you prescribe and when you are shortstacked you should gobble up value.

You lose all your fold equity if you pass as well as the blinds and antes you post waiting for your next spot.

Your fold equity is in your chipstack not in your cards.

Shove, any 2.

Ah I see you have changed from only calling when dominated to being called by a range - why have you done that?

because i was using your range!!

Plus only 2 hands (22 and 33) in that range dont dominate A4. It would have minimal impact if I lose those ones (31.811% vs 44+ A5s+ A5o+)

In reality this range is wrong anyway. I've seen 10X BB pushes called with J9 before in £1k comps so there's no doubt sometimes when called we're ahead here...

I already agreed that it was a push and my calculations made it very slightly ev- (because I assumed that the bb would be the caller and approximated Ironsides stack to 5bbs and the pot to be 2bbs), your exact calc does make it slightly ev+.  Anyway your statement was "massively ev+" and this is clearly an exaggeration.

As a comparison, say you pass this and the blinds go through you as you are looking for a "better spot".

Your stack is now 9700- 2000-1000-600 = 6,100.

You are now lucky enough to find Ad Qh on the button and there is a shove from the cutoff who has 14,000. You call and the blinds fold.

There is now 6,100 + 6,100 + 4,400 or 16,600 in the pot.

---

The cutoff clearly has a wide range here. Let's say he has any ace , any 2 broadway, any pair and any suited connectors. You are obviously beating this range comfortably with 60.50% equity. You've stumbled into a great situation.

BUT

your equity in the pot is only 60.5%*16,600 = 10,043, or less than that of pushing with A4o UTG(given the conditions you outlayed). The variance is almost identical as well as you will survive about 60% of the time here and in the previous example you will also survive about 40% +(0.3279*60%), about 59.67%.

So it's preferable to push now than wait to call an allin in LP with Ad Qh once the blinds have been through you. Don't forget you have to be VERY lucky to get into this position too!

You're right. I am prone to absolutely massive, humungous, gi-normous exaggerations :)

I just get a bit excited when I see value as a shortstack.

Lets not forget the importance of your FE here as well, you get it through 40% of the time (i disagree with this figure but anyway) now you can shove an amount that people can pass for either from the SB/Button/Cutoff all factors of the earlier decision.


Pushing with the A4 brings your more equity as your attempted blind steal on the next round is going to be successful a far higher % of the time, thus further increasing the EV of the A4 shove, although indirectly.

I could sit here for the next hour or so writing out all sorts of mathematics to backup what i am saying, but really it's not necessary as JC has already proven that the hand in pure isolation against the worst possible range is already +EV.

Passing any two cards here is very bad.

I can't comment on this thread, I pushed two rounds earlier and got knocked out. :(

  you werent there

or if you was who was doing the gukpt update

Proberly.

I was just making the point that I think you should've pushed earlier than at this point.

i had pushed and picked up the blinds a few times i had pushed and got a double up not long before

but the steals i was getting in were only maintaing my stack

i wasnt getting called for a double up and i wasnt calling off my comp with 2 unconnecting unsuited low cards

good thread

Agreed, good discussion.

Lots of talk of calculations...but to even embark upon a discussion about the maths is to focus on the cards you have been dealt. As ever tournament play is about situations and the situation here is a bleak one. As such you do not have the choice to weigh up the pros and cons of how your cards will fair in the long run against a perceived calling range. The luxury of that type of mentality has long since passed. 

The best thing to do here is cup your cards..fake a look..and push..and push with the visible relief that you still have enough juice in the tank to ask the field a semi-serious question.

I really don't think any player other than the bb is going to "call" this bet. So while players in earlier seats may have a better ace than you they still wont call for fear of hanging themselves out to dry to a later raise. They will have to find a raising hand to get involved and that isn't a frequent occurence. We beat the bb's random hand right now and anyway we shouldn't fear a call...the situation tells us a double up is a desperate requirement.

When you get called simply look down and find pocket aces in the hole.