to push or wait

[Royal Flush]

Assuming you assign them the range of Any A or any pair, unlikely for the guys in EP, but lets go with it anyway.

You pick up the blinds and antes 40% of the time! Happy Days!

[LuckyLloyd]

You ppl do know that fold equity is about getting hands that should call to fold?  There is virtually no fold equity with this hand.  You do realise that winning poker is about our opponents mistakes?  There is virtually no chance of our opponents making a mistake here.   With this hand you have about a 60% chance of running into a pair or a better ace.  Pushing j8 here is a much better play than pushing a4.

You're wrong. Show me your maths.

Oh, and - it is more accurate to say that winning poker is about making plus EV decisions.

9 better aces = 108/1225 any pair = 72/1225 

1- (180/1225) =.853~ 

.853^6 = .385~

1-.385 =.61

J8 runs into less dominated hands and obv has much more fold equity. e.g Q8, j9

That is not the right way of approaching the problem.

Assuming we get called by a range of 66+ // A6s+ //A8o+ // K10s+ you need to pokerstove how our hand (A4o) compares against that range as opposed to J8.

Then you can't ignore the fact that the most FE we will have will be in this spot (5xBB UTG - I genuinely believe that some of the hands I have listed above will fold). If we let the blinds pass we will have NO fold equity.

You can't fold here because "an Ace is usually dominated"; "I prefer suited cards"; "I'll get called x% of the time".

Blah, blah. Needs must. We don't have a choice given our stack and table position relative to the next round of blinds.

SHOVESKI!!

[JungleCat03]

You ppl do know that fold equity is about getting hands that should call to fold?  There is virtually no fold equity with this hand.  You do realise that winning poker is about our opponents mistakes?  There is virtually no chance of our opponents making a mistake here.   With this hand you have about a 60% chance of running into a pair or a better ace.  Pushing j8 here is a much better play than pushing a4.

You're wrong. Show me your maths.

Oh, and - it is more accurate to say that winning poker is about making plus EV decisions.

9 better aces = 108/1225 any pair = 72/1225 

1- (180/1225) =.853~ 

.853^6 = .385~

1-.385 =.61

J8 runs into less dominated hands and obv has much more fold equity. e.g Q8, j9 (Although having looked at this at bit more j8 is about the same in ev terms if called by any pair or a5+).  So they are both slightly ev- in isolation on this basis.  I don't see how someone with Ironside's table image (deserved or not) is going to get called with a worse hand and tbh the biggest problem with royal flush's advice is that it generally only applies to someone with his image who will get looked up with a worse hand.

Overall I do agree that this is a push if you take the view that you should push when it only slightly ev- because of blinds.  I don't think this is a push though with 6bbs so to characterise it as a no brainer isn't correct.

If you managed to get a fold through 40% of the time and the other 60% of the time you get called and dominated this is massively +EV in  this situation.

[doubleup]

You ppl do know that fold equity is about getting hands that should call to fold?  There is virtually no fold equity with this hand.  You do realise that winning poker is about our opponents mistakes?  There is virtually no chance of our opponents making a mistake here.   With this hand you have about a 60% chance of running into a pair or a better ace.  Pushing j8 here is a much better play than pushing a4.

You're wrong. Show me your maths.

Oh, and - it is more accurate to say that winning poker is about making plus EV decisions.

9 better aces = 108/1225 any pair = 72/1225 

1- (180/1225) =.853~ 

.853^6 = .385~

1-.385 =.61

J8 runs into less dominated hands and obv has much more fold equity. e.g Q8, j9.  (Although having looked at this at bit more j8 is about the same in ev terms if called by any pair or a5+).  So they are both slightly ev- in isolation on this basis.  I don't see how someone with Ironside's table image (deserved or not) is going to get called with a worse hand and tbh the biggest problem with royal flush's advice is that it generally only applies to someone with his image who will get looked up with a worse hand.

Overall I do agree that this is a push if you take the view that you should push when it only slightly ev- because of blinds.  I don't think this is a push though with 6bbs so to characterise it as a no brainer isn't correct.

That is not the right way of approaching the problem.

Assuming we get called by a range of 66+ // A6s+ //A8o+ // K10s+ you need to pokerstove how our hand (A4o) compares against that range as opposed to J8.

Then you can't ignore the fact that the most FE we will have will be in this spot (5xBB UTG - I genuinely believe that some of the hands I have listed above will fold). If we let the blinds pass we will have NO fold equity.

You can't fold here because "an Ace is usually dominated"; "I prefer suited cards"; "I'll get called x% of the time".

Blah, blah. Needs must. We don't have a choice given our stack and table position relative to the next round of blinds.

SHOVESKI!!

FMP

You said my statement was incorrect, I provided the requested figures. 

ps There is no way OP gets called with KTs. 

[doubleup]

If you managed to get a fold through 40% of the time and the other 60% of the time you get called and dominated this is massively +EV in  this situation.

errr no it isn't

Hint you win .4 x 2.2 bbs when you get a fold - how much do you lose the 60% of the time you are called

[JungleCat03]

Ok you have 9700 after posting the 200 ante.

Blinds are 1,000, 2000.

If you shove and are called the pot will have 9700 +9700 +4400 =23,800  if called by the 4 players out of the blinds OR  21,800 if called by the big blind, 22,800 if called by the small blind, averaging the pot out at 23,300.

As you are talking about better aces and pairs, pokerstove runs A4o as  32.79% against a range of 22+,A5s+,A5o+.

Your equity if called is 32.79% * 23,300 =7640.07.

Equity if they pass 9700 + 4400 = 14,100.


Overall equity...

(60%* 7,640.07 = 4,584.04)

+

(40% * 14,100  =  5,640)

= 10,224.04
....
+EV

In reality it is slightly more complex than this as you get called by worse hands sometimes of course and you assume that other players in EP auto call hands like A5 with players acting behind them (plus of course you may get multiple calls) but this is essentially the situation. It's +EV to call given the range you prescribe and when you are shortstacked you should gobble up value.

[Wardonkey]

You lose all your fold equity if you pass as well as the blinds and antes you post waiting for your next spot.

Your fold equity is in your chipstack not in your cards.

Shove, any 2.

[doubleup]

Ok ......... It's +EV to call given the range you prescribe and when you are shortstacked you should gobble up value.

Ah I see you have changed from only calling when dominated to being called by a range - why have you done that?

[JungleCat03]

Ok ......... It's +EV to call given the range you prescribe and when you are shortstacked you should gobble up value.

Ah I see you have changed from only calling when dominated to being called by a range - why have you done that?

because i was using your range!!

Plus only 2 hands (22 and 33) in that range dont dominate A4. It would have minimal impact if I lose those ones (31.811% vs 44+ A5s+ A5o+)

In reality this range is wrong anyway. I've seen 10X BB pushes called with J9 before in £1k comps so there's no doubt sometimes when called we're ahead here...

[doubleup]

Ok ......... It's +EV to call given the range you prescribe and when you are shortstacked you should gobble up value.

Ah I see you have changed from only calling when dominated to being called by a range - why have you done that?

because i was using your range!!

Plus only 2 hands (22 and 33) in that range dont dominate A4. It would have minimal impact if I lose those ones (31.811% vs 44+ A5s+ A5o+)

In reality this range is wrong anyway. I've seen 10X BB pushes called with J9 before in £1k comps so there's no doubt sometimes when called we're ahead here...

I already agreed that it was a push and my calculations made it very slightly ev- (because I assumed that the bb would be the caller and approximated Ironsides stack to 5bbs and the pot to be 2bbs), your exact calc does make it slightly ev+.  Anyway your statement was "massively ev+" and this is clearly an exaggeration.

[JungleCat03]

As a comparison, say you pass this and the blinds go through you as you are looking for a "better spot".

Your stack is now 9700- 2000-1000-600 = 6,100.

You are now lucky enough to find on the button and there is a shove from the cutoff who has 14,000. You call and the blinds fold.

There is now 6,100 + 6,100 + 4,400 or 16,600 in the pot.


The cutoff clearly has a wide range here. Let's say he has any ace , any 2 broadway, any pair and any suited connectors. You are obviously beating this range comfortably with 60.50% equity. You've stumbled into a great situation.

BUT

your equity in the pot is only 60.5%*16,600 = 10,043, or less than that of pushing with A4o UTG(given the conditions you outlayed). The variance is almost identical as well as you will survive about 60% of the time here and in the previous example you will also survive about 40% +(0.3279*60%), about 59.67%.

So it's preferable to push now than wait to call an allin in LP with once the blinds have been through you. Don't forget you have to be VERY lucky to get into this position too!

[JungleCat03]

Ok ......... It's +EV to call given the range you prescribe and when you are shortstacked you should gobble up value.

Ah I see you have changed from only calling when dominated to being called by a range - why have you done that?

because i was using your range!!

Plus only 2 hands (22 and 33) in that range dont dominate A4. It would have minimal impact if I lose those ones (31.811% vs 44+ A5s+ A5o+)

In reality this range is wrong anyway. I've seen 10X BB pushes called with J9 before in £1k comps so there's no doubt sometimes when called we're ahead here...

I already agreed that it was a push and my calculations made it very slightly ev- (because I assumed that the bb would be the caller and approximated Ironsides stack to 5bbs and the pot to be 2bbs), your exact calc does make it slightly ev+.  Anyway your statement was "massively ev+" and this is clearly an exaggeration.

You're right. I am prone to absolutely massive, humungous, gi-normous exaggerations

I just get a bit excited when I see value as a shortstack.

[Royal Flush]

Lets not forget the importance of your FE here as well, you get it through 40% of the time (i disagree with this figure but anyway) now you can shove an amount that people can pass for either from the SB/Button/Cutoff all factors of the earlier decision.


Pushing with the A4 brings your more equity as your attempted blind steal on the next round is going to be successful a far higher % of the time, thus further increasing the EV of the A4 shove, although indirectly.

I could sit here for the next hour or so writing out all sorts of mathematics to backup what i am saying, but really it's not necessary as JC has already proven that the hand in pure isolation against the worst possible range is already +EV.

Passing any two cards here is very bad.

[NoflopsHomer]

I can't comment on this thread, I pushed two rounds earlier and got knocked out.

[Ironside]

I can't comment on this thread, I pushed two rounds earlier and got knocked out.

  you werent there

or if you was who was doing the gukpt update